Futures are lower – but well off session lows thanks to some well-time oil sell orders just before US traders walked in to work – as bond yields continue to make new highs, with both Nasdaq and Russell lagging the S&P which feels like more de-risking into tomorrow’s Fed release. AS of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% amid premarket weakness in Mag7 with GOOG / META / MSFT all down at least 90bp but NVDA in the green helping Semis outperform on the move lower. Memory / Korea names are bid despite Kospi closing lower. Energy, Utils, and pockets of Healthcare are higher with the other sectors weaker pre-market. The yield curve is bear steepening as yields continue to march higher in response to oil/energy and growth. The 10Y rose as high as 5.04% before retracing back to around 5.0% USD is stronger. Crude is +2% as the UKR / RU détente on striking energy infra fails to materialize and growing chatter of UK aiding Saudis in fighting the Houthis. Ags are mixed and Metals are weaker, with Base outperforming Precious. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Empire Mfg.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Nvidia +0.5%, Tesla -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta -0.5%, Apple -0.6%, Alphabet -0.9%, Microsoft -0.9%
- Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall on waning optimism that a comprehensive US crypto regulatory bill will progress this week.
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) drops 13% after the restaurant and arcade chain operator reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) is up 1.3% after Berenberg upgraded the pharmaceutical giant, with analysts arguing it’s worthy of a more significant valuation premium due to its superior growth profile and the breadth of its pipeline.
- Enova International (ENVA) falls 18% after the financial services company withdrew its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve for the acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp.
- Etsy (ETSY) rises 3% after Oppenheimer upgraded the online retailer to outperform, citing improvements the company is making to its platform.
- Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) gains 9% after the power equipment company reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted Ebitda above a guidance range given in May. The company’s backlog grew 256% year-over-year.
- Vera Therapeutics (VERA) jumps 12% after the drugmaker gave updated results from a late-stage trial of its recently approved drug for a kidney disorder.
- Waystar (WAY), which provides payment-related software to health-care organizations, rises 12% after a Reuters report that said the company is exploring options that include a sale. The report cited sources familiar with the matter.
In other corporate news, Enova International withdrew its bank regulatory applications for the acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp. Dave & Buster’s shares fell in premarket trading after the restaurant and arcade chain operator reported second quarter results below expectations.
Elevated bond yields, which overnight hit a new 19 year high of 5.04% before reversing, are setting the tone for markets, placing surging energy costs and mounting debt firmly on traders’ radar. Enthusiasm for the AI trade, the major driver of equity gains this year, also remains tempered as debate rages over whether the technology may inflict catastrophic harm. A surprising note from Goldman found that the momentum trade is shifting notably under the surface.
“Of course the bond selloff is weighing on tech and growth stocks,” said Louis Puga at Societe de Gestion Prevoir. “There are really two worlds at play here: on one side healthy corporate balance sheets and profits, and on the other side countries running big deficits and putting pressure on the bond market.”
The weakness in bonds raises the stakes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday, for which money markets are pricing in more than a 90% chance of a hike. If officials hold off, or Chair Kevin Warsh signals a shallower-than-expected path of tightening, investors may demand even higher yields as protection against inflation.
“After years of inflation overshooting target, the Fed’s credibility is under scrutiny,” wrote Jenny Zeng at Allianz Global Investors. Warsh’s “recent comments leave little doubt that restoring price stability remains the priority. September is the meeting where that commitment is put to the test.”
A resilient economic backdrop and cautious investor positioning suggest the equity market can absorb more pressure before the rally comes under threat, Bloomberg proposes. “Being early is the same as being wrong, so I’d be careful not to declare the game over too soon,” Rowe says. Still, investors are keen to make protective moves: Hedging demand is ticking higher, with three of the four largest VIX trades this year all taking place in the last two weeks.
Underneath the AI rhetoric, the picture is more nuanced. Growth won’t suddenly change and adoption and token use remain high, while any move by leading AI developers to slow the frontier could hand an advantage to some of the hyperscalers. Still, investors are likely to become more selective about picking potential winners.
Monday’s chip drawdown was also reflective of positioning: The latest BofA global fund manager survey revealed that long global semiconductor stocks is the single most crowded trade, according to more than half of respondents. The poll also showed fading exuberance around risk assets, with net 49% of managers now overweight global equities compared with 56% last month.
In politics, the Supreme Court refused to clear the Postal Service to enforce new restrictions on mail-in ballots for the midterm elections, rebuffing the Trump administration’s request to intervene. Gavin Newsom said he would not run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris enters the race, ruling out a potential primary showdown between two of California’s most prominent Democrats.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%. Deutsche Bank slipped more than 2%, echoing declines among US peers after Bank of America warned that trading revenue for the current quarter will be flat. Regional bonds were mixed. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- Kety shares rose as much as 9.7% after the Polish aluminum products and packaging maker agreed to buy Italy’s Metra from KPS Capital Partners
- Shares in Acciona Energía and parent Acciona advanced after newspaper Expansión reported that EQT and Norges Bank Investment Management have joined forces to bid for the Spanish renewables company
- Defense stocks outperformed a struggling broader market on Tuesday morning, with the sector boosted by US inventory shortfalls and news that Japan could raise defense spending
- Wickes shares rose as much as 9.9%, the biggest intraday gain since May 2025, after the home improvement retailer reported a “significantly improved trend” in the third quarter and said it remains confident it can meet full-year expectations
- Kier shares rose as much as 4.8%, the most since July, after the UK infrastructure contractor’s FY26 results showed continued growth in orders and the firm announced it would reallocate capital for property investment toward the balance sheet
- Schott Pharma climbed as much as 5.5%, the most in almost a month, as JPMorgan initiates at overweight with a Street-high €27.1 price target, citing supportive structural trends and the German pharma packaging company’s market leading role
- Trustpilot shares dropped as much as 20%, the most since December 2025, after the online review platform’s results were “noisier than usual” according to JPMorgan analysts, who noted one-off items that impacted the firm’s top-line and lack of a guidance upgrade
- European lenders declined following US peers weakness after Bank of America’s CEO said trading revenue will be “relatively flat” compared with last year’s third quarter
- Lundbeck shares slid as much as 5.9%, the most since February, after Deutsche Bank downgraded the pharmaceutical company to sell, noting headwinds including a patent cliff for Rexulti that are set to weigh on sales in the medium term
- Deutz shares fell as much as 7% after the German engine manufacturer successfully completed a cash capital increase via accelerated bookbuilding
- UniCredit shares fell as much as 2.9% after RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage at sector perform, saying there are few catalysts for a rerating of the Italian lender while earnings are clouded by its ongoing attempt to acquire Commerzbank
Asian stocks declined, dragged by financials, as headwinds mount for the market on higher oil prices and US 10-year Treasury yields breaching the 5% mark. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1%, poised for a fourth-straight session of losses. Asian banks declined, following US peers lower after Bank of America said its trading revenue will be “relatively flat.” Singapore led broad losses across the region, while equities rose in Vietnam. Spiking bond yields and oil prices are weighing on the macro outlook ahead of expected monetary tightening this week in the US and Japan. The Asian benchmark has fallen 3.7% over four days. Asian banks may take some cue after JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley give some color on trading revenue at a conference in New York tonight, said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee.
Meanwhile, Citigroup cautioned that bearish bets have increased across global markets, with Asia having the weakest positioning. On the other hand, BlackRock has returned to an overweight recommendation on emerging-market equities including South Korea and Taiwan, betting that access to scarce resources needed for the AI boom and strong earnings will drive outperformance.
“Rising yields and energy prices are creating a risk-off environment,” said Bilal Khan, head of international equity sales, at Arif Habib. “Chip-related stocks did show some resilience earlier in the session before adding to the selloff.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises for a second day, with the yen underperforming.
In rates, bond markets continue to decline, with 10-year US Treasury yields hitting the highest since 2007. Yields are higher across the board in Europe too. Treasuries are mixed in early US session with long-end yields still about 2bp cheaper on the day after retreating from session highs as oil gains fade. Yields across tenors reached fresh YTD highs, the 10-year its highest level since 2007. Front-end Treasury yields are little changed, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by about 2bp; 10-year is back around 5% after peaking at 5.04% Gilts hold similar moves following Telegraph report that the Bank of England could soon stop selling long-dated bonds
$13 billion 20-year bond reopening has WI yield near 5.41%, about 21bp cheaper than last month’s new-issue auction, which tailed by half a basis point, IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Ten offerings totaling almost $24 billion were priced Monday with issuers paying about 2bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times covered. At least five borrowers stood down Monday, setting the stage for another heavy slate Tuesday. US session includes 20-year bond reopening at 1 p.m. New York time.
US stock futures are falling. European equities are sinking too, with a drag from financial services and banking stocks, the latter after downbeat comments from Bank of America’s CEO on trading revenue in the third quarter.
In commodities, oil prices are up, with Brent rising above $108/bbl as traders weigh ongoing disruptions to supplies, before sliding around the time US traders (but mostly Jane Street) walked into the room. WTI crude has pared a 2.8% gain to about 1%.Gold is sinking further below $4,300/oz and base metal prices have also dipped.
US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am) and September Empire manufacturing (8:30am); Fed speakers remain in external communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
- Saudi Arabia has increasingly found itself caught in the middle of the war between the United States and Iran. Now, the kingdom’s leadership is assessing dwindling options on how to respond. NYT
- The Defense Department’s inspector general released its first report on the war with Iran on Monday, saying the conflict has resulted in a shortfall of U.S. munitions and “bottlenecks” in supply chains as the Trump administration works to replenish weaponry. NBC
- Offering a grim assessment of Russia’s relations with the West, President Vladimir Putin pointedly warned European governments not to deploy any troops, including peacekeeping forces, to Ukraine, saying it would mean “war.” WaPo
- Ukraine on Mon said it would end energy attacks if Russia did the same, but Kyiv is skeptical Moscow will agree to a halt. CNBC
- Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Drone Plant and Ozon Facility in Massive Overnight Attack: Kyiv Post
- Japan is considering a new mid-term defense spending target of 3.5% of GDP in line with NATO and other US allies, a move that could send a shockwave through financial markets concerned about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans. BBG
- Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet approved a plan to temporarily reduce the consumption tax on food, moving closer to delivering on a key election pledge to ease the burden on households from the soaring cost of living. BBG
- The Bank of England is poised to announce this week that it will stop selling long-dated government bonds which have been hit by a global selloff in debt markets, potentially freeing up some cash for finance minister John Healey: Telegraph
- China’s domestic economic indicators weakened further last month, piling pressure on policymakers to take more forceful measures to reinvigorate growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Retail sales grew 0.4% year-on-year in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday, down from 0.6% growth in July and falling short of a median forecast of 0.8% growth. FT
- Industrial America is contending with a fresh wave of supply chain inflation as Donald Trump’s Iran war pushes up energy costs, tariffs raise import prices and the AI boom strains supplies of crucial electronics. FT
- There is another factor that could add Treasury bonds volatility into the mix: hedge funds, a growing force in this market. Hedge funds held about $2 trillion of Treasurys at the start of this year, more than double their holdings five years earlier, according to the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research, which said hedge funds controlled a record 7% of the market. Data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday suggests that funds’ Treasury holdings remain elevated. WSJ
- US House Democrats will reportedly challenge US Treasury Secretary Bessent on rising costs at the Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Semafor reported citing a memo, with questions also to include bonds, tariffs, Russia, Iran and crypto.
- US Supreme Court rejected Trump administration mail ballot curbs for the Midterms.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development, which President Trump pushed back against, while participants digested mixed Chinese activity data and await major central bank meetings. ASX 200 underperformed amid weakness in the mining, materials, resources and financial sectors, while risk sentiment was also not helped by the rising yield environment. Nikkei 225 was choppy, while Kioxia benefited from reports that Kioxia is weighing a US listing next year. However, the index then stumbled and briefly turned negative before rebounding again. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid the choppy mood in the local tech giants. South Korea’s main stock exchange saw its first after-hours trading session, trading between 16:00-20:00 KST. According to data cited by Bloomberg, volatility spikes in individual stocks triggered brief trading halts 1,637 times, over 4x the number during the regular session. This shows the lack of liquidity provided and will therefore remain risky until institutional traders provide more liquidity. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive following several data releases from China, including a continued contraction in House Prices and mixed activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts but Retail Sales disappointed, while Fixed Assets Investment weakened and the Urban Unemployment ticked higher.
Top Asian News
- China’s stats bureau said August economic activity was generally steady, though the impact of an unfavourable external environment is deepening. NBS stated residents’ ability and willingness to spend should be enhanced, while it added the supply of high-quality goods and services should be improved.
- Japan is said to mull raising defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, according to Bloomberg. However, Finance Minister Katayama stated that she is not aware of the report.
- Japan Finance Minister Katayama said Japan will include that a food sales tax cut will be limited to two years in upcoming legislation and that Japan will assess tax revenue, review spending and aim to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio in the upcoming budgeting process. Katayama added that Japan will control new debt issuance through the combined initial and supplementary budgets. Furthermore, she said the government will maintain market credibility by reviewing spending and revenue and will not rely on deficit-financing bonds to fund tax cuts.
- Japanese PM Takaichi is set to reshuffle LDP executives on Wednesday ahead of a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) are entirely in the red, as higher energy prices and yields continue to weigh on equities. Not much in terms of geopolitics overnight, outside of the continued strikes on Saudi airbases by the Houthis. On the data front, the UK jobs report was mixed; payrolls fell more than expected while the unemployment rate held steady. Little reaction was seen in the FTSE 100. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Retail the only sector printing modest gains. Financial Services is the clear sector laggard, with Basic Resources and Consumer Products & Services following closely behind.
Top European News
- ECB’s Moulin said the current increase in long-term bond yields reflects higher supply and increased inflation expectations and added that the inflation outlook justified recent ECB rate rise. On government debt, he said member states must take steps to reduce budget deficits. Specifically for France, he said that France’s debt agency has no problem selling bonds, with no difficulty for the French Treasury in raising funds.
- Worldpanel said UK Grocery inflation at 2.3% in 4 weeks to Sep (vs 2.1% in Aug).
FX
- Snapshot: G10s are broadly lower against the USD, which continues to benefit from stronger energy prices and elevated yields. The JPY remains the underperformer on wider yield differentials, whilst high-beta Antipodeans have been pressured by the risk environment.
- DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 99.47 to 99.68 range. Strength is facilitated by higher energy prices and elevated yields, with the US 10-year topping the 5.00% mark. Should geopols/yields remain stable heading into the FOMC on Wednesday, then the index will likely hover within recent ranges.
- JPY continues to underperform, paring back a few weeks of strength. As mentioned previously, the next bout of strength for the JPY would likely require a hawkish BoJ this week – one which would see policymakers explicitly guide for a faster pace of rate hikes. Elsewhere, Finance Minister Katayama was on the wires earlier, where she stated that she was not aware of reports that the government plans to boost defence budget spending to 3.5% of GDP (vs current 1.9%).
- GBP has been hampered by the broad USD strength. Earlier, markets saw the release of a mixed Jobs/Wages report, whereby Unemployment remained steady at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst the wages components were in-line. Overall, it will not do much to shift views at the BoE ahead of Thursday’s meeting, where expectations are for rates to remain on hold.
Fixed Income
- Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the red, and yields have risen to multi-decade/record highs. USTs (-14 ticks) are the clear underperformers, whilst Bunds (-20 ticks) and Gilts (-14 ticks) also remain in the red.
- USTs are the clear underperformers today. It appears that an accumulation of a) higher energy prices, b) hawkish Fed repricing, c) fiscal stability woes have all caught up to the benchmark. Moreover, there may be some concession heading into the US 20-year auction later today; for reference, the Japanese outing for the same maturity was solid.
- From a yield perspective, the US 10-year (5.02%) holds beyond the key 5.00% mark, after making a peak of 5.04% earlier this morning. This brings the yield to levels not seen since the GFC. The Fed policy decision on Wednesday should see yields edge off highs (at the long-end), however, a convincing breach below the 5% mark would also likely require a hawkish SEP/commentary. This, in theory, would help ease stability concerns at the long-end; but of course, other factors such as AI-issuance and the Middle East crisis will temper any moves lower.
- Gilts are pressured alongside peers, given energy dynamics. Earlier, a mixed jobs/wages report had little impact on Gilts at the open; the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% (exp. 5%), whilst wages were in-line. On the supply side, The Telegraph reported that the BoE has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts.
- Bunds follow the above. There was little move to WPI, which saw the M/M top expectations. Thereafter, the German ZEW Survey was released, where Economic Sentiment rose incrementally from the prior, whilst Current Conditions improved. No move was seen in Bunds following the data.
- The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph.
- Germany sells EUR 3.817bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.70% 2028 Schatz: b/c 1.26x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 3.27% (prev. 2.85%), retention 23.66% (prev. 23.4%).
- UK sells GBP 1.25bln 2029 Gilt via Tender: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.61x), average yield 4.818% (prev. 4.062%).
- Japan sells JPY 532.1bln 20-year JGBs: b/c 4.01x (prev. 3.98), average yield 3.856% (prev. 3.698%), Tail in price 0.15 (prev. 0.17).
Commodities
- WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures remain firmer as the Middle East conflict continues to underpin the complex, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still offline following attacks, Riyadh seeking to boost shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran reiterating that the Strait remains closed and under its control. WTI trades towards the bottom end of a USD 101.83-103.49/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 100.53-104.95/bbl range), while Brent resides close to the current intraday peak within a USD 106.25-107.86/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 104.80-109.80/bbl range).
- Dutch TTF are currently flat and off earlier highs, trading around EUR 82.50/MWh within a EUR 81.76-83.42/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 79.52-84.50/MWh range), with the increasing energy-supply risks continuing to underpin European gas ahead of winter.
- Precious metals are softer as the firmer USD and high oil prices reinforce expectations of a Fed hike tomorrow. Spot gold has slipped back below USD 4,300/oz and trades within a USD 4,261-4,317/oz range (vs yesterday’s USD 4,253-4,355/oz range), with the 100 DMA at USD 4,328.90/oz).
- Base metals are subdued amid the firmer USD, softer risk tone and mixed Chinese activity data, with weak retail sales and investment offset somewhat by stronger industrial production. Copper is also pressured by fresh deliveries into LME warehouses signalling easing supply tightness. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 14k/t in a USD 13,985.85-14,083.68/t range.
- Half of Russia’s leading diesel-producing refineries have reduced output following drone strikes.
- Libya’s oil and gas minister said they plan to raise nat gas production to 4bln SCFD within 3-5 years.
- EPA Administrator said the US is proposing to rescind all major greenhouse gas emission standards for all power plants.
- Oman November OSP for November delivery set at USD 128.48/bbl.
- China Steel Association said it condemns overproduction and urges controls and urges for supply-side remedies, and strictly enforces output controls.
Central Banks
- ECB staff committee urged for clarification whether President Lagarde will leave before the end of the term, warning that prolonged uncertainty risks damaging trust in the institution, according to FT.
- NBP’s Zarzecki said there’s minimal room for Polish rate changes until end-2026.
Geopolitics: Iran
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing.
- Iran’s top security official Rezaei said don’t get distracted by the US President’s mixed signals from ‘no negotiations’ to ‘we’re ready to talk’, while he added that stakes around oil and the straits have changed, damage control won’t stop what’s coming, and there will be no talks until Iran’s conditions are met, period!
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi held a phone call with Lebanon’s House of Representatives Speaker Berri and discussed the need to strengthen coordination to confront Israel’s efforts to ignite wars against Lebanon and countries in the region. Araghchi stressed Iran’s keenness to preserve Lebanon’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Israeli aggression, while he affirmed Iran’s full support for the proud Lebanese resistance in the face of Israeli occupation and aggression.
- UKMTO said they received a delayed report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that a vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile.
- UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday regarding developments around the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, according to Fars News Agency.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi held talks with the leader of Iraq’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Sources cited by Russian press said US President Trump’s statement on an energy truce is “an impromptu move”, and that no decision was made on an energy truce in the latest talks in Moscow between the US delegation and Russian President Putin.
- Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the US has never offered concessions to Russia over the Ukraine conflict in exchange for Moscow’s assistance in resolving the Iranian issue, Interfax reported. Furthermore, Lavrov said Russia is ready for reasonable compromises on Ukraine.
- Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov plans to meet US Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, RIA reported.
- Ukraine President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces made new gains at the Syzran refinery and struck a UAV production facility in Taganrog, a UAV preparation and launch base in the Oryol region, and targets in the Black Sea
- NATO military jets were scrambled in Lithuania due to a drone near Vilnius and a military fighter jet shot down the drone in Lithuanian airspace, according to the National Crisis Management Centre.
- A Russian presidential aide warned that if Poland enters a war against Russia, Moscow would use its entire military arsenal.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Sep Empire Manufacturing, est. 15, prior 20.6
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As I continue to bravely soldier on through manflu, markets have started the week with a few notable coughs and splutters as inflationary fears and talk of an AI slowdown have led to a difficult 24 hours. Although the weekend talk was all about AI, the broader market driver was a fresh rise in energy prices, with Brent crude (+1.02%) closing at $105.68/bbl, and back above $107 this morning, while European natural gas futures (+3.83%) hit their highest since 2022. So that pushed bond yields to multi-year highs, and we even saw the 10yr Treasury yield (+2.0bps to 4.99%) move above 5% in trading for the first time since 2023. It’s back above that level in Asia as I type. The 5% threshold alone would have been a newsworthy day, but we simultaneously saw a huge slump for chip stocks given the AI slowdown headlines, with the Philly semiconductor index (-5.86%) posting its worst day since July. So it was another session where September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for asset performance, with bonds and equities continuing to struggle. Today we’ll hear from US Treasury Secretary Bessent in his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. It’ll be interesting to see if he tries to lean in some credible way against the rising tide of bond yields.
Before this, geopolitical headlines were the biggest factor behind yesterday’s selloff. In part, this followed Friday night’s closure of Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, which acts as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. There was hope this was largely precautionary, but the Associated Press reported officials yesterday who said the repairs could take 3-5 weeks. So with another supply route taken out, that added to fears about a lengthier period of disruption. In addition, as we discussed yesterday morning, the meeting between Iran and other Gulf nations about a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz scheduled for Monday was postponed on Sunday. We don’t have the exact details, but Bloomberg reported that a source had suggested this was partly because of Saudi Arabia’s frustration at Iran-backed groups continuing attacks on its territory. So that dampened hopes about traffic resuming through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon.
We did see a decent turnaround later in the session after President Trump posted that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt their strikes on energy targets and made a series of posts about Iran, including that it “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly”. It later appeared that any Russia-Ukraine deal on energy strikes was not actually agreed yet, with Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy acknowledging a “strong US proposal” while saying that Ukraine would suspend its strikes if Russia were to stop attacks on Ukraine’s “energy facilities, critical infrastructure and food supply routes”. Still, with Trump’s posts suggesting an increased sensitivity to higher energy prices, and with Iran’s ILNA citing Pakistani sources that the US was seeking a “step-by-step” agreement with Iran, the rise in oil lost some of its steam.
All that meant energy prices extended the large gains we saw last week but closed well off the day’s highs. For instance, Brent crude (+1.02%) settled at $105.68/bbl by the close, after trading as high as $109.80 at the start of the US session, while WTI was +1.34% higher to $101.39/bbl. Brent is another +1.54% higher this morning at $107.31, still comfortably off yesterday’s highs but creeping back towards it. Over the other side of the pond, front-end European natural gas futures were up another +3.83% yesterday to a post-2022 high of €82.60/MWh.
That backdrop of building inflation meant investors priced in a growing chance of a full-blown hiking cycle for the months ahead. Indeed, the probability of a Fed hike tomorrow was up to 92% by the close last night, from 88% at the end of last week. And looking further out, 90bps of hikes are now priced by the June 2027 meeting, up +2.0bps on the previous day. That contributed to a fresh surge in Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10yr yield briefly moving above 5% for the first time since 2023. Yields did then turn lower, helped by Trump’s post on the energy strikes, but a late sell-off still saw yields end the day at their highest levels since autumn 2023. Ultimately, the 10yr yield (+2.0bps) closed at 4.99%, while the 2yr yield (+3.4bps) saw a larger rise to 4.66%. As mentioned at the top 10yr yields are now back above 5% in Asia, trading at 5.02% as I type.
Over in Europe the fixed income sell-off was more consistent given the continent’s bigger exposure to higher energy prices. Moreover, a hawkish shift in ECB pricing drove a big selloff at the front end in particular. So among others, Germany’s 2yr yield (+6.8bps) jumped to 3.26%, the highest since September 2023, and the 10yr bund yield (+1.2bps) hit a post-2009 high of 3.51%. The larger front-end repricing came amid a larger rise in European inflation expectations, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap (+9.8bps) up to 3.60%, whilst the US 1yr inflation swap (+0.7bps) saw a marginal rise to 2.59%. Elsewhere in Europe, the 10yr OAT yield (+2.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.47%, and here in the UK, the 10yr gilt yield (+2.4bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.37%.
As all that was going on, there was a big selloff in chip stocks yesterday after the weekend calls for some kind of AI slowdown. So the Philly semiconductor index (-5.86%) had its worst daily performance since July. President Trump again pushed back against the prospect of an AI slowdown, as he had initially on Sunday, saying yesterday that the US already had “tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies!” And then in a separate post, he said that “the United States is leading, by a lot, every other country. Don’t kill the Golden Goose!” While this helped chip stocks recover a bit, they were back near the day’s lows by the close. That slump helped to drag US equities down more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.48%) seeing a decent fall, despite a narrow majority of companies in the index rising on the day. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.49%) registered a similar loss.
Markets are lower again in Asia, but losses are relatively contained. As I check my screens, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.89%), the KOSPI (-0.71%), the Hang Seng (-0.23%) and the Nikkei (-0.16%) are all in negative territory with mainland Chinese stocks just on the negative side. US equity futures are down a couple of tenths of a percent with European futures flat.
Early morning data showed that China’s industrial production grew 5.2% year-on-year in August, surpassing market expectations of 4.8% and accelerating from the 4.5% growth seen in July. The stronger-than-expected performance was largely supported by robust external demand, which continued to bolster export-oriented manufacturing despite broader signs of economic weakness. However, industrial production remained the lone bright spot in an otherwise challenging economic landscape. Fixed asset investment for the January-August period contracted by -7.2%, slightly worse than the -7.1% expected decline and deteriorating further from the -6.7% contraction recorded in the previous month. As a key indicator of both public and private capital expenditure in China, the metric has remained firmly in negative territory since April, highlighting persistent weakness in investment activity. Meanwhile, retail sales increased just +0.4% year-on-year in August, falling short of +0.8% expectations and slowing from the 0.6% rise seen in July. The data suggests that consumer spending in the world’s second-largest economy remains subdued despite a series of stimulus and support measures introduced by Beijing.
Separately, China’s property sector continued to weigh on economic activity, with new home prices declining by -0.17% in August, nearly matching July’s -0.18% drop. The continued fall in housing prices underscores the ongoing challenges posed by the country’s prolonged real estate downturn.
Finally, there was very little data yesterday, although we did get Canada’s CPI print for August. That was exactly as expected, with headline CPI remaining at +3.0%, and the various core measures also in line with expectations. Against that backdrop, there was little change in market pricing for the Bank of Canada’s next meeting in late-October, with a 75% chance of a hike priced in by the close.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include UK unemployment for July, the German ZEW survey for September, and the US Empire State manufacturing survey for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Escriva and Cipollone. Otherwise, US Treasury Secretary Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee.
