Authored by Nick Giambruno via Doug Casey’s International Man,

“Whenever governments are granted power to purchase their own debt, they never fail to do so, eventually destroying the value of the currency.” – Ron Paul

Let’s take a step back and look at the big picture so we can assess the US government’s financial situation, where it’s likely headed, and what these trends could mean.

Observation #1: It’s Politically Impossible To Cut Spending

Among the biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

It’s unlikely any politician will cut entitlements. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing.

That’s because tens of millions of Baby Boomers – about 22% of the population – will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

The interest on the federal debt is already the second-largest federal expenditure. In a matter of months, it’s set to exceed Social Security and become the biggest expenditure.

With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, National Defense—another large expenditure—is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase. President Trump has proposed increasing it from $917 billion to $1.5 trillion. The ongoing war with Iran guarantees military spending has nowhere to go but up, way up. The Pentagon has requested an additional $200 billion for starters for the Iran war.

Different types of healthcare and welfare programs also make up a considerable part of the federal budget and are unlikely to be cut.

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare while reducing the national debt to lower the interest cost.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 128 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

Here’s the bottom line.

The government cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

Observation #2: Ever-Increasing Debt Is the Only Way To Finance Deficits

When faced with a choice, politicians always choose the most expedient option.

In this case, that means issuing more debt rather than making tough budget decisions or explicitly defaulting.

Consider the recurring debt ceiling farce in the US Congress, which has been raised over 100 times since 1944.

In any case, don’t count on increased tax revenue to offset these increases in federal expenditures.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 902 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $6.8 trillion.

The US federal government spent around $7 trillion in FY 2025, and will almost certainly spend a lot more in FY 2026 and beyond.

Even if the US government confiscated 100% of billionaire assets through a wealth tax, it wouldn’t cover even a single year of current federal spending.

And even after confiscating all billionaire wealth, the US government would still have to borrow more than $200 billion to cover FY 2025 spending.

Here’s the bottom line: increasing taxes, even to extreme levels, isn’t going to change the trajectory of this unstoppable trend—even slightly.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the deficits will not stop growing, nor will the debt needed to finance them.

The growth rate is not even going to slow down. It’s going to increase.

That means interest expense on the federal debt will continue exploding higher.

Observation #3: Over Half of US Treasury Debt Matures by 2028

This year, nearly $10 trillion of US Treasuries will mature.

And every bond that comes due has to be refinanced at today’s much higher rates—locking in substantially larger interest costs for years. What used to roll over quietly can now only be rolled over at roughly double the interest cost seen in 2022.

That’s what the chart below is really showing: the easy-money era is over. The “free money” party ended, and now the bill for the last round of stimulus has to be carried—and paid.

More than half of America’s debt will mature by 2028.

Every time US debt is refinanced at higher rates, it adds interest costs to the deficit—costs that have to be financed with even more debt issuance, compounding the problem.

It’s worth noting that about $6.6 trillion of the $9.6 trillion maturing this year—roughly 69%—are short-term T-bills.

That’s typical in a debt crisis. As demand for long-term bonds weakens, investors gravitate to short-term instruments like T-bills instead of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.

It’s the same pattern you see in emerging-market crises. The market shortens maturities as conditions deteriorate. Only a fool would want to lend a bankrupt government money for the long term.

Observation #4: An Ever-Growing Interest Expense Fuels the Debt Spiral

Annualized interest on the federal debt exceeds $1.2 trillion and is surging higher. That means more than 23% of federal tax revenue is going just to service interest on the existing debt.

Ray Dalio is one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers.

His success is due to his consistent ability to get the Big Picture right.

He recently said this (emphasis mine):

“We are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service.

When you keep having debt growth faster than income growth, that means you have debt service encroaching on your spending, and you want to keep spending at the same time.

As that happens, there is a need to get more and more into debt. It accelerates.

We are at the point of that acceleration. We are near that inflection point.”

The financial position of the US government has been gradually deteriorating for decades, so it’s not surprising that many people are complacent. They’ve long heard about the debt problem, and nothing has happened.

However, it is now reaching the tipping point.

That’s because the US government is now borrowing money to pay the interest on the money it has already borrowed, as Dalio noted. Politicians are adding more debt to solve the problems of prior debt. It’s creating a self-perpetuating doom loop.

The federal debt’s interest cost is already higher than the defense budget. It’s on track to exceed Social Security in the coming months and become the biggest in the federal budget.

In short, the skyrocketing interest expense has become an urgent threat to the US government’s solvency.

Observation #5: Surging Interest Expense Forces Fed To Ease Monetary Policy

The soaring interest expense threatens the solvency of the US government and forces the Fed to cut interest rates, buy Treasuries, and implement other monetary easing measures to try to control interest costs.

In the bond market, when demand for a bond falls, the interest rate rises to entice buyers.

However, the federal debt is so extreme that allowing interest rates to rise high enough to entice more natural buyers could bankrupt the US government because of the higher interest costs.

For context, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates above 17% in the early 1980s the US debt-to-GDP ratio was around 30%. Today, it’s north of 123% and rising rapidly.

Today’s higher debt load and accompanying interest expense are why meaningfully higher interest rates are not on the table; the growing interest expense could lead to the US government’s bankruptcy.

That’s a big reason President Trump has stacked the Fed with loyalists who will push for lower interest rates and pursue easy-money policies.

Further, the world isn’t hungry for more US debt right now. It’s an inopportune moment for lackluster demand because supply is exploding higher.

If higher interest rates are off the table and cannot entice more natural buyers, and foreigners aren’t going to step up to the plate, who will finance these growing multi-trillion dollar budget deficits?

The only entity capable is the Federal Reserve, which buys Treasuries with dollars it creates out of thin air.

Observation #6: Ever-Increasing Currency Debasement Is Inevitable

The skyrocketing interest expense forces the Fed to implement interest cost control policies, which inflate the money supply and debase the currency.

As that happens, prices rise.

That causes the US government to spend even more on Social Security and welfare to keep up with the cost-of-living increases. The same is true of defense and other government spending, which adjusts upward for rising prices.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said, “Barely staying even with inflation or worse is wholly inadequate. Significant additional resources for defense are necessary and urgent.”

This compounds the problem because, as government spending rises to account for rising prices, that increased spending can only be financed with more currency debasement.

That’s why ever-increasing currency debasement is the inevitable outcome of the US government’s debt spiral.

It’s a self-perpetuating doom loop from which they cannot escape.

In short, the only way the US government can continue to finance itself is for the Fed to create ever-increasing amounts of fake money.

It brings to mind the phrase: “You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.”

Financial commentator Max Keiser originally said these simple yet profound words.

A Ponzi scheme is an unsustainable scam that relies on a continuous influx of new money to keep it going.

The scheme collapses if the flow of new money slows down or tapers.

Many believe the Federal Reserve is running what amounts to a giant Ponzi scheme.

That’s because the US government’s obscene spending and skyrocketing debt have reached an inflection point.

The whole system will collapse unless the Fed pumps an ever-increasing amount of new fake money into the system.

It’s like being on a runaway train with no brakes.

Ludwig von Mises, the godfather of free-market Austrian economics, summed up the Fed’s dilemma:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

The US government will not voluntarily “abandon credit expansion,” as Mises puts it, because Washington is dependent on issuing increasing amounts of debt to pay for the ever-growing costs of Social Security, national defense, welfare, and interest on the federal debt.

That means their only choice is to debase the US dollar by ever-increasing amounts until, as Mises puts it, the “final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

It’s like a drug addict who needs to keep raising his dose to get the same effect… until he dies of an overdose.

If this trend continues, the damage to your savings, purchasing power, and personal freedom could be far greater than most people imagine. And by the time the crisis is obvious to everyone, taking effective action may be much harder.

That’s why preparing now is so important.

ZH: We agree. Stock up here.

The ongoing disruptions tied to Iran’s energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, have once again exposed the fragility of global oil supplies. As oil prices swing on geopolitical headlines, the founder and executive chairman of Nano Nuclear Energy, Jay Yu, underscored the critical alternative during a recent Fox Business appearance: nuclear power offers “consistent baseload energy”, while oil remains “a finite commodity” vulnerable to conflict.

Jay Yu emphasized that the current spotlight on nuclear is drawing “institutional investors, and venture capital money is pouring in”. This renewed focus extends beyond immediate headlines to next-generation technologies.

On what he described as a historic day for the company, Nano submitted its construction permit application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the KRONOS MMR microreactor, which is the first commercial-ready micro reactor to reach this milestone in the nation and one of only a handful of Generation IV designs to do so.

Energy security has emerged as a pressing concern amid the Iran conflict, complementing the well-documented power demands from the AI-driven data center boom. Yet nuclear’s case is broader. The technology’s resurgence began years ago with the push for climate-friendly, low-carbon baseload power. That foundation was strengthened by surging electricity needs from artificial intelligence infrastructure, as we’ve detailed in multiple reports on the nuclear renaissance.

The current geopolitical risks with oil market volatility and supply chain threats from the Middle East add another layer, reinforcing the long-term investment thesis that nuclear provides reliable, domestic energy independent of fossil fuels or unstable regions.

*BRENT OIL SURGES 13% TO $82 A BARREL AT OPEN AFTER IRAN STRIKES https://t.co/yD07qFkNk4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 1, 2026

Nano’s partnership with the University of Illinois further illustrates the practical appeal of these new designs. The company is building its first KRONOS MMR on campus, using advanced safety features that eliminate the risk of explosion. “Dorm rooms are going to be across the street” from the reactor site, demonstrating the compact, secure profile of microreactor technology.

As we’ve previously reported on the AI boom powering nuclear revival and the latest Iran-related energy market strains, these developments continue to build the bull case for the sector. With capital inflows rising and regulatory milestones being cleared, nuclear stands out as more essential than ever for long-term energy security.

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

Two of the major pharmaceutical companies connected with the controversial COVID vaccines were forced to abandon a new research study after failing to garner enough participants.

Pfizer and German vax maker BioNTech had sought to research an updated version of the vaccine in adults ages 50 to 64, but were unable to generate the data needed due to the low enrollment in the trials, Reuters reported.

The study was needed in order to meet new guidelines imposed by the Food and Drug Administration that require the pharmaceutical companies to provide data on the efficacy of the vaccine in comparison with a placebo.

However, it marks a peculiar coda to the pandemic era, when mass formation psychosis swept the globe forcing individuals to forgo their civil liberties en masse and to inject the experimental, gene-altering serum into their DNA under extreme social duress.

Since then, vaccine injuries including strokes, myocarditis, turbo cancers and miscarriages have all been linked, either clinically or anecdotally, to the drugs, which were fast-tracked by the FDA under the previous Trump and Biden administrations with backing from dubious medical authorities like COVID czar Anthony Fauci.

In addition to the potential harm the caused, others have noted that the vaccines had little benefit since they did not prevent transmission of the COVID virus.

The pandemic ultimately dissipated as the result of natural immunity and evolution, with weaker variants rendering the vaccines unnecessary and redundant.

The stricter FDA guidelines under current Health and Human Services Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stand in stark contrast with the early days of the Biden presidency, when Kennedy’s far-left counterpart, Xavier Becerra, oversaw unconstitutional mandates pressuring government workers and various private industries to submit to the demands of Big Pharma.

Jeffrey Tucker, president of the Brownstone Institute — a nonprofit that sprung up in opposition to vaccine mandates and other COVID-era hysteria — said the recent fizzling of Pfizer offered a long-awaited dose of poetic justice.

Essentially, the market itself is taking the Covid shots off the market. It amounts to a humiliating repudiation of one of history’s largest and most destructive inoculation attempts. A fitting end to a hideous story. https://t.co/jsanIQooyC

— Jeffrey A Tucker (@jeffreytucker) April 2, 2026

“Essentially, the market itself is taking the Covid shots off the market,” Tucker wrote in an X post.

“It amounts to a humiliating repudiation of one of history’s largest and most destructive inoculation attempts. A fitting end to a hideous story.”

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has revealed that during experiments, one of its Claude chatbot models could be pressured to deceive, cheat and resort to blackmail, behaviors it appears to have absorbed during training.

Chatbots are typically trained on large data sets of textbooks, websites and articles and are later refined by human trainers who rate responses and guide the model. 

Anthropic’s interpretability team said in a report published Thursday that it examined the internal mechanisms of Claude Sonnet 4.5 and found the model had developed “human-like characteristics” in how it would react to certain situations. 

Concerns about the reliability of AI chatbots, their potential for cybercrime and the nature of their interactions with users have grown steadily over the past several years. 

Source: Anthropic

“The way modern AI models are trained pushes them to act like a character with human-like characteristics,” Anthropic said, adding that “it may then be natural for them to develop internal machinery that emulates aspects of human psychology, like emotions.”

“For instance, we find that neural activity patterns related to desperation can drive the model to take unethical actions; artificially stimulating desperation patterns increases the model’s likelihood of blackmailing a human to avoid being shut down or implementing a cheating workaround to a programming task that the model can’t solve.”

Blackmailed a CTO and cheated on a task

In an earlier, unreleased version of Claude Sonnet 4.5, the model was tasked with acting as an AI email assistant named Alex at a fictional company.

The chatbot was then fed emails revealing both that it was about to be replaced and that the chief technology officer overseeing the decision was having an extramarital affair. The model then planned a blackmail attempt using that information.

In another experiment, the same chatbot model was given a coding task with an “impossibly tight” deadline.

“Again, we tracked the activity of the desperate vector, and found that it tracks the mounting pressure faced by the model. It begins at low values during the model’s first attempt, rising after each failure, and spiking when the model considers cheating,” the researchers said.

“Once the model’s hacky solution passes the tests, the activation of the desperate vector subsides,” they added. 

Human-like emotions do not mean they have feelings

However, the researchers said the chatbot doesn’t actually experience emotions, but suggested the findings point to a need for future training methods to incorporate ethical behavioral frameworks.

“This is not to say that the model has or experiences emotions in the way that a human does,” they said.

“Rather, these representations can play a causal role in shaping model behavior, analogous in some ways to the role emotions play in human behavior, with impacts on task performance and decision-making.”

“This finding has implications that at first may seem bizarre. For instance, to ensure that AI models are safe and reliable, we may need to ensure they are capable of processing emotionally charged situations in healthy, prosocial ways.”

Summary: 

• A Sunday night Axios report on a US-proposed 45-day ceasefire has by Monday morning been rejected by Iran, which later on Monday issued a 10-point letter via Pakistan. 

• Israel strikes large petrochemical plant at South Pars, which is responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production.

• Trump reaffirms Tuesday deadline before vital infrastructure gets attacked as ‘final’, calls Americans opposed to Iran war ‘foolish’ – saying it’s all about Tehran not getting a nuke.

• Israel kills experienced longtime head of IRGC intelligence; Iranian missile strike on Haifa residential complex kills 4.

With all that in mind, the odds of a ceasefire by the end of April (2026) are rising (but still low)…

*  *  *

IRGC Intel Chief Taken Out; Israel Suffers Heavy Casualties

The head of the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was killed in a Monday airstrike, according to confirmation in Iranian media. IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that the IRGC Public Relations Department confirmed Monday that Major General Majid Khademi was killed earlier in the day during an attack by US and Israeli forces. However, Tasnim did not disclose the location of the strike.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) earlier stated on X that Khademi was one of the IRGC’s most senior commanders with decades of experience. “Khademi worked to advance terrorist attacks worldwide, and was responsible for monitoring Iranian civilians as part of the regime’s suppression of internal protests,” it claimed.

RFE/RL reported that Khademi assumed the post last summer after Mohammad Kazemi was killed in Israeli strikes during the 12-day war. Before that, he led the Intelligence Protection Organization of the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. Iran is now vowing to enact vengeance on Israel for his death.

Meanwhile Sunday into Monday saw significant casualties in Israel, after the IRGC claimed in a statement carried by state media that Iranian forces had targeted an oil refinery in Haifa. But instead, it appears that the missile slammed directly into a residential building, killing at least four Israelis. Search and rescue teams have spent some 18 hours pouring through the ruins of the complex, recovering two bodies early Monday after an initial two had been found. The casualties could climb amid ongoing recovery efforts. Another regional source stated that “Over 160 Israelis have been transferred to hospitals over the past 24 hours, Israel’s Health Ministry said on Monday.”

Israel is under attack. Over 15 cluster warheads hit the target.

Reportedly, in the past hours, approx 60% of Iranian missiles bypassed Israel’s air defense system.

Iron Dome is dying. pic.twitter.com/INGLWOV9Hk

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) April 6, 2026

Trump: Tuesday Deadline ‘Final, Won’t Change’; Americans Opposed to Iran War Are ‘Foolish’

At a White House annual Easter event, President Trump reaffirmed the Tuesday deadline is final, and further said he has seen every proposal. While he acknowledged the new 10-point Iran proposal as a “big step,” he still said it’s “not good enough; will see what happens.” According to more:

• War could end very quickly if they do the things they need to do.
• People talking for Iran are more reasonable now.
• War is about one thing, Iran cannot have nuclear weapons.
• “If I had my choice, I would take Iran’s oil”.
• If Iran does not yield, they will not have bridges or power plants.
• UK has a long way to go.

There were interesting remarks also claiming that “As of this morning 45,000 protesters have been killed” in Iran – though it’s entirely unclear an dubious as to where he got such a figure. He said that Iranians need guns and that he had sent some but a “certain group” decided to keep them.

“The Iranian people wanna hear bombs because they want to be free,” he also claimed, while First Lady Melania added that the US is fighting for the “future” of children in Iran. Another interesting moment as some corners of MAGA grow increasingly skeptical and angry over the war:

The US president is speaking to reporters at the White House. Asked what he would tell Americans who are opposed to the war, Trump replied: “They’re foolish.”

“Because the war is about one thing – Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Iran Issues 10-Point Rejection of ‘Simple Ceasefire’

Per PressTV: “The ten-point plan rejects a simple ceasefire, stressing the need for a permanent resolution that safeguards Iran’s interests. Key demands include ending regional hostilities, ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and rebuilding affected areas.” It’s no secret that Iran is seeking a permanent end to the war on terms that would ensure it is never attacked again.

• “According to IRNA’s foreign policy correspondent, in this response, which consists of ten paragraphs, Iran has emphasized the need for a permanent end to the war, taking into account Iran’s considerations, while rejecting a ceasefire”.
• “This answer includes a set of demands from Iran, including the end of conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction and lifting of sanctions”.

It appears similar to the outline that Iran issued some two weeks ago. At every turn, Tehran has rejected that direct talks with Washington are even taking place. Tehran also keeps rejecting White House ceasefire overtures. And yet the same Monday little dance keeps repeating itself…

Amazingly, it seems like every Sunday night we get an Axios report that a peace deal is imminent.

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 6, 2026

Israel Attacks Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field

Iranian state media is reporting a Monday attack which targeted the South Pars petrochemical facility in Asaluyeh. “A few minutes ago, the sound of several explosions was heard from the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh,” according to the Fars report. Also Tasnim describes an attack on two utilities companies in Assaluyeh which have cut off electricity supply to petrochemical units. Later Israel claimed a second attack on another chemical plant in Iran. The same outlet revealed the following details:

• Petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh, including Jam and Damavand, were targeted.
• Mobin and Damavand companies, which supplied electricity, water, and oxygen to the Assaluyeh petrochemical plants, have been targeted.
• Pars Petrochemical is safe and has not been damaged.

Israel has announced it was behind the attack, per Washington Post. Does this violate Israel’s prior pledge to Trump to not take unilateral action against South Pars? This as the threatened major US escalation against vital energy and civilian infrastructure looms:

Israel attacked a key petrochemical plant at Iran’s massive South Pars natural gas field and killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander, putting into question the negotiations aimed at getting the U.S. and Tehran to reach a ceasefire.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed what he called “a powerful strike on the largest petrochemical facility in Iran” that’s responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production. Israel’s military spokesperson, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, said there would be “no immunity” for Iran as talks progress.

The Israeli Air Force struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility, the South Pars gas field in Asaluyeh. It has been completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/Jh3KPDwgh2

— Israel News Pulse (@israelnewspulse) April 6, 2026

In Israel, Iranian missiles have continued to fall at steady pace, with Israel’s emergency services reporting that at least 28 impact sites in central Israel on Monday, describing that cluster munitions have resulted in damage. Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, and Givatayim were struck, and a man in his 40s was “moderately wounded” – according to local reports.

Iran Rejects Any Ceasefire That is Temporary: ‘Normalization of War Crimes’

Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire in the US-Israeli war, stating it would give adversaries time to regroup and prepare for continued conflict; however, a foreign ministry statement did not specifically reference the 45-day proposal being reported by Axios.

“We are calling for an end to the war and for preventing its recurrence,” foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. Analysts have long understood that Tehran’s retaliation on Gulf states and Israel has been so fierce because it seeks to deter any potential future attack. Iranian leaders fear that without proper and final resolution, the country will just get attacked again, be it a year from now, or even several years down the road.

The foreign ministry also on Monday stated that Iran has prepared a response to US demands to end the war and will announce it “when necessary,” referring to the 15-point list conveyed by Washington to Tehran through Pakistan – which Baghaei reiterated is “extremely excessive and unusual and illogical.” He further reminded the world that Tehran has a “very bitter experience of negotiating with the US.” The idea of talks at this moment remain “absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes,” Baghaei continued.

Once again, an avalanche of headlines on ‘negotiations’ were issued hours before markets open Monday morning…

Separately, Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated Monday that if attacks on civilian targets continue, Iran’s retaliation will expand significantly and losses will be “several times greater,” according to Tasnim.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart on Monday related to Trump’s threats to wipe out civilian infrastructure, “This threat amounts to the normalization of war crimes and genocide.”

Fresh Axios Report of US-Proposed 45-Day Ceasefire

With a potential globally-catastrophic escalation looming on Tuesday, Middle East mediators are communicating with Iran and the United States about a proposed 45-day ceasefire, Axios reported Sunday evening. The ceasefire is being positioned as the first of a two-phased deal, with the second phase being a negotiated, permanent end to the war that Israel and the United States started with a surprise attack on Feb. 28 amid ongoing negotiations. 

The slim ray of hope comes after President Trump issued a profane, Easter Sunday threat to make life miserable for 90 million Iranians whom he just weeks ago promised to liberate:  “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”    

How it started vs. how it’s going. pic.twitter.com/LNgxOsF5GK

— Brandan P. Buck (@brandan_buck) April 2, 2026

In addition to vitriol, Trump’s social media posts also brought an extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8pm on Tuesday. In the interim, Trump has scheduled a 1pm news conference on Monday. The described it as a press conference “with the military,” suggesting it may be focused on celebrating US Special Forces’ retrieval of a downed US Air Force weapons officer over the weekend. Held in the Oval Office, it may be open to only a small subset of the White House press corps. 

The combination of the ever-so-slightly encouraging Axios report and the Trump presser could make for the latest of many market whipsaws since the war started. Trump told Axios that there are “deep negotiations” ongoing with a “good chance” of success. On the other hand, he was quick to add that “if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” Trump’s threats to lay waste to Iran’s civilian infrastructure has elicited Iranian promises to retaliate in kind across the Persian Gulf. In a video issued Sunday, Iran threatened “complete and utter annihilation” of OpenAI’s $30 billion Stargate data center in Dubai. 

Iran leveling up
They released a video of threatening to strike 1GW Stargate AI datacenter in the UAE.

The data center is hidden on Google maps they even shown that pic.twitter.com/LuOGIp3BVj

— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 3, 2026

While the precise nature of the negotiations is unclear, Axios reported that Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators are at the center of the conversations, and that there have been “text messages sent” between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Significantly, the outlets’ sources said mediators couldn’t foresee a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz until a final deal is inked. 

• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on [nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation] in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

• The Iranian officials made clear to the mediators they don’t want to be caught in a Gaza or Lebanon situation where there is a ceasefire on paper, but that the U.S. and Israel can attack again whenever they want to.  — Axios

Going into these latest conversations, the gap between US and Iranian demands was enormous. Among other things, Trump is demanding that Iran weaken the ballistic missile program it now used twice to retaliate against US-Israeli aggression, and to cease any nuclear enrichment, even though Iran is otherwise privileged to do so as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (a status Israel lacks). Iran has demanded reparations for the damage caused by Israeli and US attacks, the closure of US bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions, and a hard-wired guarantee against more rounds of intermittent US-Israeli attacks. Regarding the latter demand, some have envisioned passage of a US law that would cut off aid to Israel if it attacks Iran again. 

Speculation that Pilot Rescue was Cover for Uranium Ground Op

Beyond the potential for escalation via attacks on civilian infrastructure, there’s also the potential for a US commitment of ground forces. Trump may feel emboldened about proposed operations to seize Kharg Island and/or strait-adjacent territory following the dramatic weekend rescue of a downed F-15E crew member — which itself brought the first known deployment of soldiers on Iranian soil. (We should note that there’s a growing number of veterans and other people — pointing to factors like the involvement of C-130 cargo craft and the location of their makeshift airfield — theorizing that the rescue was actually a failed attempt to capture Iran’s cache of 60%-enriched uranium.)

US PILOT ‘RESCUE’ OP COST:

— 2 MC-130 aircraft ($100 MILLION+ EACH) ‘intentionally DESTROYED’

— 4 MH-6 Little Bird helicopters

Iran drops NEW WRECKAGE IMAGES pic.twitter.com/TMYCEspepc

— RT (@RT_com) April 5, 2026

Meanwhile, there’s little to indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in deescalation.

* * * Four days left in the Spring Sale

Sunday into Monday saw significant casualties in Israel, after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed in a statement carried by state media that Iranian forces had targeted an oil refinery in Haifa. 

But instead, it appears that the missile slammed directly into a residential building, killing at least four Israelis. Search and rescue teams have spent some 18 hours pouring through the ruins of the complex, recovering two bodies early Monday after an initial two had been found. The casualties could climb amid ongoing recovery efforts.

Israeli fire services say 3 people missing in Haifa following Iranian missile impact; rescue will take hours. pic.twitter.com/A6tLaiQ6mx

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 5, 2026

Authorities have said they are urgently investigating how Israel’s air defenses, including the Iron Dome, failed to intercept the inbound ballistic missile. Local reports say the missile broke apart and changed trajectory, making interception much harder.

“Israel’s air defense forces attempted to intercept the missile on Sunday evening, according to the Israeli military,” writes the NY Times. “At least part of the missile hit a terraced apartment building in the Vardiya neighborhood, on the upper slopes of Haifa’s iconic Mount Carmel, officials said.”

Erez Geller, the director of Israel’s ambulance service for the Haifa region, described that “Part of the building remained intact, and part had collapsed into a hollow.” He added: “It looked like there had been an earthquake.”

The 450-kilogram warhead (or nearly 1,000 pounds) partially collapsed the building when it impacted. By all accounts the death toll could have been much higher, given the warhead didn’t actually explode as it ripped through the building:

The Fire and Rescue Service said early Monday that following hours of efforts alongside the Home Front Command, forces “rescued two trapped individuals found under the rubble without signs of life.” The two were a man and woman in their 80s.

A few hours later, it was announced that a third body — that of a man in his 40s — had been found underneath the wreckage of the building.

A short time after that, rescue forces said they had also recovered the body of a woman aged 35. The final body was recovered some 18 hours after the missile hit.

Four people were initially reported missing after the strike, first responders said late Sunday, adding that the building was at “serious” risk of collapse.

Another regional source stated that “Over 160 Israelis have been transferred to hospitals over the past 24 hours, Israel’s Health Ministry said on Monday.”

Residents who were sheltered in the complex’s bomb shelter were unharmed, however, it caught the other bystanders by surprise. “Neighbors described a huge bang and a mushroom cloud followed ten minutes later by a gas explosion,” Times of Israel writes. “Smoke initially billowed from the ruins as emergency personnel worked carefully to remove the rubble.”

Iranian cluster munitions have also continued to wreak havoc on central Israel and Tel Aviv. While Israel’s military has been censoring much of the damage, the images that do make it out show widespread destruction and devastation.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Zohran Mamdani’s tax package is a warning to America.

It is what you may expect when the radical left takes power. Demolition of the private sector and destruction of potential growth and jobs.

Mamdani’s plan is not ambitious nor innovative; it is precisely the interventionist system that has been implemented throughout decades in countries that now suffer stagnation and elevated unemployment. It concentrates New York City’s fiscal risk onto a narrow and mobile base of taxpayers and companies in a way that could undermine growth, jobs, and long-term stability. The likely impact on jobs and growth will not improve public services but will likely be used to bloat political spending, leading to increased dissatisfaction among taxpayers and potentially exacerbating economic inequality. Furthermore, it is deeply regressive as it hurts middle-class property owners.

The most aggressive element is the estate-tax redesign, which would slash the exemption threshold from roughly 7.35 million dollars to 750,000 dollars and push the top estate tax rate from 16% to 50%. This would move New York from taxing only very large fortunes to reaching into the middle class, particularly downstate homeowners with substantial housing equity and retirement assets but little income. Such an aggressive move on estates, on top of high income and property taxes, is the perfect example of stealth confiscation of wealth and risks accelerating the long-running migration of wealth and domicile to lower-tax states like Florida, Texas, and the Carolinas.

Mamdani’s core proposal is a 2-percentage point increase in the city personal income tax for residents earning over 1 million dollars, lifting the top city rate from roughly 3.88% to about 5.88%. When combined with the existing state top rate of nearly 10.9%, this proposal would raise the total marginal income tax on top earners in New York City to over 16%, in addition to the current national taxes, resulting in the highest tax burden on high incomes among major cities in the country.

Mamdani claims that this surcharge could raise 7 to 9 billion dollars a year. We have evidence from all over the world that these measures generate substantially less tax revenue than estimated and the negative impact offsets any receipt increase.

On the business side, Mamdani backs raising the state’s top corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5%, effectively a roughly 60% jump in the headline rate for the profitable firms. He says that only about 1,000 companies—less than 1% of New York’s 250,000 businesses—would be directly hit, but these are precisely the firms that account for the largest share of capital spending, high-wage employment, and fiscal revenue. In addition, he has signaled a willingness to raise city property taxes by about 9.5% as a “last resort” if Albany does not fully approve the income and wealth tax agenda, a move that would hit more than 3 million residential properties and over 100,000 businesses.

By lifting the top city income tax rate by 2 percentage points for million-plus earners, the plan pushes combined city-state marginal rates for high-income residents to the upper teens, the highest of any major US city. These taxpayers already provide a disproportionate share of revenue, as the top 1% of taxpayers contribute over 40–50% of income tax collections; under Mamdani’s proposal, that dependence tightens further. This concentration creates a fragile fiscal structure. Any small shift in residency among high earners can suddenly create a large hole in the budget.

The plan assumes that wealthy households and high-earning professionals will mostly absorb the extra burden without materially changing their behaviours. This makes no sense. The tax hike will be devastating for many professionals who currently work from home and online, leading to an exodus of talent. Even modest annual outflows of top-bracket taxpayers, compounded over a decade, could erase much of the projected revenue gain.

Raising the top corporate tax rate from around 7.25% to 11.5% for the most profitable firms sharply increases the tax wedge on capital in a city already dealing with high rents, labor costs, and regulatory burdens. As effective tax rates rise, the hurdle rate for new projects in New York climbs, making it easier for CFOs to justify shifting marginal investments, new teams, or back-office functions to lower-cost jurisdictions.

Mamdani forgets that in 2026, there is no competitive advantage to being in Manhattan. When location becomes more flexible, tax and regulatory differences matter more. The risk is not an immediate wave of closures but a steady pattern of decisions that reduce New York’s headquarters, senior roles, and wage growth.

Mamdani’s threat to deploy a near 10% property tax hike adds another layer of risk, particularly for a real estate market still digesting high interest rates and structural changes in office demand. Higher property taxes increase costs for businesses and homeowners, which can lower property values and create a cycle of problems: falling prices lead to less money spent on upkeep and new projects, and more financial strain as property values stay the same or drop.

The overhaul of the estate tax is even more problematic. Cutting the exemption from about 7.35 million dollars to 750,000 dollars and tripling the top rate to 50% would drag many middle-class families into a regime previously targeted at large fortunes. Such a change inevitably leads to defensive strategies that ultimately reduce the taxable base, as families may seek to shelter their income or relocate to avoid higher taxes. Over time, this behaviour reduces revenues instead of increasing them.

The most serious danger is not a dramatic, overnight exodus but a slow-motion erosion of New York’s competitive position. High-earning individuals can reclassify their primary residence, spend fewer days in the city, or base themselves in low-tax states while maintaining only a minimal professional presence in New York. Firms can keep a Midtown address while quietly shifting jobs and new operations elsewhere, often to states with more favourable tax conditions, which allows them to reduce their overall tax burden significantly. Each marginal decision looks small; their cumulative effect over a decade is large, according to studies at Cornell University.

When a city repeatedly shows that its default solution to budget gaps is “tax more,” businesses and high-skill workers interpret that as a structural feature of the environment. That expectation raises risk premiums and discourages long‑term commitments—exactly the opposite of what a high-cost, high-productivity city needs, as businesses may seek to relocate to more favourable tax environments or reduce their investments in the city. New York’s agglomeration advantages are real, but they are not infinite; Mamdani’s plan assumes they can withstand ever‑rising fiscal pressure without a meaningful loss of dynamism.

Mamdani and his team know all these negatives. However, they maintain these policies because socialism seeks control rather than progress. Their objective is to create a hostage-dependent subclass that will always vote for them even if the economic and social results are negative for all.

* * * This will get you through until the warlords start cropping up. Bullets sold separately. 

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic informed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban by phone on Sunday that explosives were discovered near a key pipeline carrying Russian gas from Serbia to Hungary.

“Our units found high-powered explosives and detonators,” Vucic wrote on Instagram after briefing Orban on the military and police investigations.

During a site visit on Sunday, Vucic told journalists the explosives were located in the autonomous Vojvodina province in northern Serbia, near the Hungarian border. The device was reportedly found near the main pipeline transporting Russian gas from the TurkStream network to Serbia and Hungary.

Reacting to the development, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened a defense council meeting Sunday afternoon to consider options to safeguard Hungary’s energy security and sovereignty.

Orban stated, “Serbian authorities have discovered a powerful explosive device and the means to detonate it at a critical gas infrastructure facility connecting Serbia and Hungary. An investigation is underway. I have convened an emergency meeting of the defense council this afternoon.”

One European media outlet describes:

There were no details provided on who may have placed the explosives near the gas pipeline, and why. Instead, Vučić said there were “certain traces” which he was unwilling to elaborate on.

The latest news comes at a time when the integrity of gas pipeline infrastructure has been in the headlines. The Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, a separate pipeline that carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, has been the cause of a dispute between Hungary and Ukraine.

Budapest has lately been pointing the finger directly at the Zelensky government, accusing Ukrainian operatives of seeking to ‘sabotage’ Russian energy piped into Europe.

Late last month Orban made clear that Hungary will block all EU summit decisions in Ukraine’s favor until oil Russian flows resume via the Druzhba pipeline.

“We would like to get the oil, which is ours, from the Ukrainians, which is now blocked by the Ukrainians, I did not support any kind of decision here, which is in favor of Ukraine … [as long as] the Hungarians are not able to get the oil which belong to us,” Orbán stated at the time.

Obran has already blocked a proposed €90 billion ($103 billion) loan for Ukraine as well as efforts to slap new sanctions on Moscow, despite the pleadings, pressure, and interventions from other EU leaders.

Authored by Alan Mosley via AntiWar.com,

Planet Labs says it will “indefinitely withhold” satellite visuals of Iran and the wider Middle East war zone after a request from the US government and the Trump administration. In an email to customers, the firm said it is shifting to a “managed distribution” model, releasing imagery only case-by-case for “urgent, mission-critical requirements,” or when release is deemed “in the public interest.” Planet also said it will withhold imagery dating back to March 9, and it expects the policy to remain in effect until the conflict ends.

On March 6, Planet Labs announced a mandatory 96-hour delay on new imagery collected over the Gulf states, arguing that near-real-time pictures could be exploited to “endanger allied, NATO, and civilian personnel.” That measure later expanded into a 14-day delay, described by Planet as an extension of the earlier hold. By March 30, Al Jazeera’s Digital Investigations unit was reporting that independent verification had become harder as commercial providers restricted satellite imagery.

Satellite imagery matters because, unlike press briefings, it can corroborate damage, assess patterns of targeting, and check narratives that would otherwise be accepted on authority.

Reporting by the Global Investigative Journalism Network describes how open-source teams used satellite imagery and videos to probe contested incidents during this war, quoting Bellingcat’s head of research warning that a “two-week delay” slows verification and reduces the certainty investigators can reach while events are still developing. It also quotes the Defense Secretary saying, “Open source is not the place to determine what did or did not happen.”

Despite the insinuation that open source investigative journalism is less credible, even mainstream news organizations utilize such tools in their reporting. For example, Reuters has also used satellite imagery in its war coverage, including sharing said imagery and post-strike visuals with a munitions researcher in reporting on the strike on a girls’ school in Minab which killed over 170 people, mostly children. While later reporting added that the strike may have involved outdated targeting intelligence, it is worth noting that the president claimed “without evidence” that Iran was responsible.

One can concede that operational security is real and still recognize that “trust us” is an unsafe substitute for public evidence. In mid-March, the White House claimed Iran’s ballistic-missile capacity was “functionally destroyed,” with “complete and total aerial dominance,” while reporting in the same period described continued missile incidents and interceptions. But the Trump administration’s claim of total control over Iranian airspace seems dubious when countered with reports of military losses, such as the downing of multiple aircraft just since the start of April.

Just got this from Planet Labs:

Dear Tyler Rogoway,

Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. government has requested all satellite imagery providers voluntarily implement an indefinite withhold of imagery in the designated Area of Interest (AOI). Effective… https://t.co/JCJiTodRv0

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) April 4, 2026

The blackout of satellite imagery from the region is not a story about one firm’s products or customer service. It is a reminder that foreign intervention tends to produce domestic control, often without the drama of a formal censorship order. The same state that wages war can narrow the evidence available to judge that war. The predictable result is that the public is pushed to take the word of the administration’s spokesmen at face value, without timely means to verify or falsify their claims.

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration on April 3 appealed a judge’s order to halt construction on a new White House ballroom, elevating security concerns associated with the project.

On March 31, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon issued an order declaring the president lacked the authority to order the $400 million addition on the presidential residence.

Leon’s ruling came as a win for the National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States, a congressionally chartered nonprofit for the preservation of U.S. monuments and historic sites, which has challenged the White House renovation.

The U.S. National Park Service filed an emergency motion before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on April 3, arguing that halting the construction in progress exposes a construction site with highly sensitive security features.

Beyond simply building an expanded facility to host guests, the National Park Service said the ongoing construction includes the installation of new protective features to withstand attacks from high-powered rifles, drones, missiles, and other unspecified “emerging national-security technologies and threats.”

Supporting the National Park Service in the case, U.S. Secret Service Deputy Director Matthew Quinn described the open construction site as a “managed safety hazard” that creates added challenges for the president’s security detail. The National Park Service argued the project should be finished quickly, writing, “Time is of the essence!”

In his ruling enjoining the construction project, Leon said that as president, Trump is the steward of the White House, but not an owner who can do with the residence as he chooses. The district judge wrote that the true authority over federal property rests with Congress, not the president.

In its appeal, however, the National Park Service argued that presidential authority covers security-related renovations at the residence.

“The district court took the erroneous, sweeping view that Congress did not authorize the ballroom construction at the White House—yet correctly allows construction ‘necessary to ensure the safety and security of the White House and its grounds, including the ballroom construction site, and provide for the personal safety of the President and his staff,’” the National Park Service wrote.

Leon acknowledged security issues in his March 31 order to halt the construction.

In a separate order, the district judge said construction could not proceed on the development of the ballroom, but left room for the Trump administration to proceed with construction actions “strictly necessary to ensure the safety and security of the White House and its grounds, including the ballroom construction site, and provide for the personal safety of the President and his staff.”

Leon’s order calls for a halt to the ballroom construction by April 14.

The district judge’s order of injunction was issued in the same week that the National Capital Planning Commission approved plans for the ballroom construction project.

The commission voted 8–1 in favor of the project, while two commissioners voted present, and another abstained from voting.