Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

A state tax court in Maryland invalidated the nation’s first state tax on digital advertising and directed state officials to refund tax payments already collected from major tech companies.

The legal dispute had been closely watched by other states that are considering taxing online advertisements.

The Annapolis-based Maryland Tax Court ruled on Aug. 14 that the digital advertising gross revenues tax was unconstitutional after it was challenged in three separate lawsuits by Google, Apple, and Peacock TV. Refunds are expected to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

The state imposes the levies based on the businesses’ global revenue. Lawmakers previously said the tax could raise $250 million per year. The money raised from the tax was earmarked for a state education program.

The 2021 tax statute specifically targets the revenue large companies earn from digital advertisements shown in Maryland. Companies that take in more than $100 million in annual global gross revenue were taxed at 2.5 percent.

A sliding scale applies to companies with larger revenues, maxing out at 10 percent for those earning more than $15 billion in global gross annual revenues.

The law’s backers argued that Maryland needed to overhaul its tax system to deal with major changes in how businesses advertise. Lawyers representing the affected companies said their clients were targeted unfairly.

The state court said the tax runs afoul of the federal Internet Tax Freedom Act, the First Amendment, and the due process and commerce clauses of the U.S. Constitution.

The court held that regulating interstate commerce was the business of Congress – not the Maryland General Assembly – and that it was inappropriate that the tax law was premised on global revenue rather than revenue that comes from in-state advertising.

The Internet Tax Freedom Act forbids taxation of electronic commerce if similar services are not taxed. The court held that there is no meaningful distinction between digital advertising and print or billboard ads, meaning the federal bar applies.

In August 2025, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit unanimously struck down the disclosure ban in the Maryland law that prevents companies from listing the digital advertising tax on customers’ receipts.

Forbidding the disclosure of the tax on customers’ receipts means that if companies opt to pass on the cost of the tax to their customers, they are not allowed to advise customers why prices have risen, which means Maryland is insulated from political accountability, the appeals court’s written opinion said.

The law “prevents companies from describing the tax in the one setting where the consumer is guaranteed to look: the invoice,” the opinion said.

“Keeping out of hot water with voters is not among the interests that can justify a speech ban.

“Criticizing the government – for taxes or anything else – is important discourse in a democratic society. The First Amendment forbids Maryland to suppress it.“

The Tax Foundation hailed the Maryland Tax Court’s new ruling in an Aug. 14 blog post.

“This is a robust win for the petitioners on all counts,” Jared Walczak, a senior fellow at the foundation, wrote.

Although Utah and Illinois enacted digital ad taxes this year, none followed Maryland’s approach. Lawmakers in other states that are “considering a digital advertising tax should likewise take note of today’s result. It’s a look into their own future if they choose to adopt a similar tax,” he said.

Democratic legislative leaders in Annapolis said the state will appeal the court ruling.

Senate President Bill Ferguson and House Speaker Joseline A. Peña-Melnyk said they “respectfully disagree with today’s ruling and expect the legal process to continue.”

The tax was enacted because the state’s tax system needs to keep pace with a changing economy in which more commerce and advertising have been moving online, they said in an Aug. 14 statement posted on X.

“It was appropriate to modernize our tax code so that large digital advertising companies contributed alongside other businesses operating in our state.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Since last fall, we have repeatedly flagged the private credit sector’s growing vulnerabilities.

Earlier coverage detailed how the asset class ballooned into a $2-3 trillion opaque market after banks retreated from riskier lending, only to face a wave of high-profile defaults (First Brands, Tricolor), surging redemptions that forced gates at major vehicles, rising PIK usage, and AI-related risks to software-heavy portfolios.

In February, the red flag got about as red as it gets…

• Private Credit Rocked By UBS Shock Outlook: Record “Cascading Defaults” And Widespread Contagion

But, as a wave of private-credit providers unleashed their PR teams – and the story slipped off the lips of the TV talking-heads – it remains top of mind for traders, as we most recently noted:

• Private Credit: The New Junk Bond Market

• Private Credit’s Problems Just Got Real 

• 777 Partners and the End of Private Credit, which highlighted insurance-sector contagion risks from PE/private-credit-controlled insurers and the difficulty of raising fresh capital.

Which leads us to a new story this morning from The Financial Times which underscores that the pressure is no longer contained.

“Strain is spreading across private credit portfolios, with some of the largest funds taking writedowns and warning about problem loans as the industry faces its biggest challenge in almost a decade,” the FT reports.

An analysis of Solve data shows that the value of troubled loans held by some of the biggest private debt investors has reached levels last seen in 2017, when the industry was dealing with a hangover from an oil price crash.

Loans placed on non-accrual status by the 20 largest publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) climbed to a median 2.8% of their cost in the second quarter, up from 2% at the end of March.

The non-accrual demarcation signals that borrowers have either stopped making payments or that a fund believes a borrower may soon default.

David Golub, co-chief executive of Golub Capital, told investors earlier this month that there was “elevated credit stress” as the industry grappled with a rise in defaults and problem loans.

“We’re in a credit cycle,” Golub said.

“Others denied it for a while. I don’t think there’s a lot of denial any more.”

Fitch Ratings warned last week that private credit defaults had hit a new record in July.

PitchBook LCD data showed the biggest publicly listed BDCs shrank again in the second quarter as funds were hit with impairments and as sales and repayments of loans outpaced commitments on new deals. Listed vehicles managed by KKR and Blue Owl, as well as Apollo’s MidCap Financial, were among those in which repayments outstripped new lending. FS KKR Capital Corp reported that 7.1 per cent of its loan book was troubled in the second quarter – still far above the industry average.

Much of the pain is concentrated in loans extended between 2020 and 2021, when rates were near zero and private equity valuations were elevated.

Higher borrowing costs have “starved some businesses from investing,” said Bryan High of Barings.

“They are using all the cash they are generating to pay interest to lenders and so growth for some businesses wasn’t as strong as it could be.”

Concrete examples include Blackstone and KKR marking down their loan to software group Medallia (Blackstone’s fund marked it at less than 50 cents on the dollar at end-June, down from 60 cents in March) after Thoma Bravo handed the business to lenders. Ares wrote down its loan to Cornerstone OnDemand, while Blackstone and KKR took over dental services company Affordable Care after default.

Industry titans acknowledge that bankruptcies and restructurings are moving back toward long-term averages.

“We are… conserving our capital, maintaining ourselves in a more defensive and risk-averse posture,” said Armen Panossian of Oaktree’s credit arm.

“We really want to be able to lean into the market on the back of what we think will be more volatility… Beneath the surface, there’s cause for concern.”

Others remain more sanguine.

Craig Packer of Blue Owl said “credit metrics are healthy and the issues we are managing remain isolated.”

Jim Miller of Ares noted that borrowers were in “solid” shape with interest coverage and leverage “generally consistent with our five-year average.”

Yet the FT confirms our ongoing warnings that some of this optimism “belies the complicated picture ahead,” particularly for software companies facing uncertain durability of growth amid the AI shift, and for funds still digesting the 2020–21 vintage.

The sell-off in BDC share prices has been sharp – KKR and BlackRock vehicles down more than 15% over the past year, Apollo’s down 14.5% – leaving some funds “priced for death,” according to Oppenheimer analyst Mitchel Penn.

BlackRock’s TCPC sold a $523 million block of loans and is exploring options that could include winding the vehicle down; KKR’s troubled vehicle has waived some incentive fees.

Penn’s research showed that on average over the past five years, bottom-quartile funds generated returns on equity below the yield on a 10-year Treasury.

“Underwriting wasn’t as good as it should have been,” he said. “They weren’t as picky.”

Taken together with our earlier reporting on redemption pressure, opacity, and early defaults, the FT data shows the credit cycle is firmly underway and the situation continues to deteriorate.

This latest report from The FT update builds on our prior observations: underwriting standards loosened during the boom, higher rates are now “starving” cash-flow coverage for many borrowers, and the liquidity mismatch between semi-liquid vehicles and illiquid loans is amplifying pressure.

The bottom-line is simple: the situation in private credit continues to worsen.

An ongoing federal investigation into billionaire Mark Walter’s business empire is raising alarm bells about Wall Street’s use of insurance capital to finance private credit and other illiquid investments. 

Bloomberg reported that Walter’s TWG Global holding company said in a filing that it will wind down its exposure to affiliated businesses by up to $6.5 billion after the transactions drew scrutiny from federal investigators. This comes after the Department of Justice homed in on loans that should’ve been marked as affiliated transactions. 

Walter’s TWG Global holding company will buy up to $6.5 billion of affiliated assets from Delaware Life Insurance Co. in exchange for an equal amount of unaffiliated investments. Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co., another TWG-controlled insurer, separately reduced related-party transactions by $90 million.

The moves begin unwinding more than $20 billion of loans and investments that the insurers acknowledged should have been classified as affiliated transactions. 

“Tripping over these requirements can constitute fraud,” said Derek Reisfield, co-founder and former chairman of MarketWatch, as well as a former McKinsey consultant, who was quoted by The New York Post. 

Reisfield said that heavy exposure to businesses connected to an insurer’s owner poses a very high risk. 

“The risk is that concentrated loans to related parties go south, and the insurance companies and their policyholders can’t be made whole,” Reisfield said, adding, “It’s bad risk management and leaves the companies vulnerable.”

Last week, Walter agreed to sell the Los Angeles Lakers to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger at a record $12.5 billion valuation, and earlier this week, a report stated that he is mulling over selling his stake in Chelsea Football Club to the majority owner, Clearlake Capital. 

Insurance companies are allowed to do business with related parties, but such dealings must be disclosed and properly labeled to ensure that owners do not put their interests ahead of those of policyholders. 

The investigation into Walter’s empire is a major wake-up call about Wall Street’s use of insurance capital to finance private credit and other illiquid investments. 

Walter was one of the earliest adopters of the strategy of acquiring insurers and investing their long-term policyholder capital in higher-yielding private assets. A number of other asset managers, including Apollo, KKR, and Brookfield, have followed suit by building out insurance operations. Private-capital firms now manage more than $1 trillion of insurance assets.

“We have always acted in good faith, and insinuations that we have in any way attempted to circumvent our obligations are simply false,” a TWG spokesman told The Wall Street Journal. 

More problems: Walter, CEO of Guggenheim Partners, saw a financing entity tied to the investment firm report a sharp decline in second-quarter earnings, driven by the delayed recognition of advisory fees. The disclosure sent the entity’s term loan tumbling below 80 cents on the dollar.

To sum up, the affiliated transactions were not inherently illegal, provided they had regulatory approval. That appears to be where the process broke down in Walter’s case.

Talk about a turn of events. So Walter possibly built his empire by using a majority of capital from the insurance companies he controls. This violates insurance laws as the float is owed back to policy holders in the future. It must be diversified and safe. By using this… https://t.co/UWmFqr74wz

— Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) August 13, 2026

More concerning, however, is that deeper scrutiny has raised questions about the quality of the loans, the underlying borrowers, and the use of shell entities to channel financing into Walter-linked companies.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) filed an opening brief on Aug. 17 seeking to reinstate human smuggling charges against Kilmar Abrego Garcia after a district court found the prosecution to be vindictive.

U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw Jr. dismissed the charges against Abrego Garcia on May 22, ruling that prosecutors brought the case against him in retaliation for his legal challenge to his wrongful removal to El Salvador last year.

In an Aug. 17 brief, the DOJ asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit to reverse the ruling, saying the prosecution against the Salvadoran national was made “based on the evidence, the law, and [prosecutors’] firm belief that there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt” that Abrego Garcia committed the crime.

“The government believed that Abrego had committed human smuggling, that he was ‘a member of the gang MS-13, a designated foreign terrorist organization, and that his return to the United States would pose a threat to the public,’” the DOJ said in the brief.

“Although his deportation had removed that threat and supported closing the criminal investigation, the deportation now had to be undone, at least temporarily. So the United States had a clear legitimate interest in prosecuting Abrego upon his return.”

The department said the lower court ruling marked “a dramatic expansion of the power of courts” to dismiss serious criminal charges based on subjective assessments of a prosecutor’s motivations and accused the district court of interfering with the executive branch’s authority and duty to protect the public from potential threat.

The Epoch Times reached out to Abrego Garcia’s legal representative for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Abrego Garcia, who illegally entered the United States in 2011 and stayed in Maryland, was accused of being a member of a foreign terrorist organization, the MS-13 gang. He was deported to El Salvador in March 2025 alongside other deportees despite a 2019 immigration court having issued a withholding of removal—which legally barred his deportation to his home country—because of concerns for his safety.

The Salvadoran national was subsequently returned to the United States in June 2025 under a Supreme Court order after the DOJ acknowledged an administrative error in his deportation.

He later faced charges of immigrant smuggling stemming from a 2022 traffic stop, to which he has pleaded not guilty. Abrego Garcia has also denied claims that he was a member of MS-13.

Crenshaw ultimately dismissed the human smuggling charges in May, saying that objective evidence has shown that “absent Abrego’s successful lawsuit challenging his removal to El Salvador, the government would not have brought this prosecution.”

The DOJ appealed the dismissal in June.

Ukraine has launched another massive overnight drone wave on Russia. While this is nothing new or unusual, the number of drones concentrated specifically on the Moscow region was much larger than prior attacks.

Over 600 drones were sent on Moscow and the surrounding region overnight into Tuesday morning, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. It ranks among the single largest assaults on the capital of the war. Regional reports say it’s the largest drone attack on Moscow of the last two years.

At least 180 of the drones were confirmed downed over the Moscow region alone – possibly more – with emergency crews responding to several crash sites, including at another Wildberries warehouse near Moscow.

Authorities cited that at least three people were injured in the assault, including a 10-year old girl. Smoke has been seen rising over residential and construction areas in social media photographs.

At least 5,000 homes or businesses are reported to be without power in the wake of the overnight strikes, regional energy provider Mosoblenergo has said.

The Associated Press has cited at least 800 Ukrainian drones launched across the whole country, as part of the same broader attack. The report further indicated:

The overnight attack started a fire at a warehouse of Wildberries, Russia’s biggest online retailer, in an industrial zone. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted the company, which it says helps supply the Russian military, an allegation Moscow denies.

Wildberries said its facility sustained “insignificant damage.”

The online retailer, widely seen as the ‘Russian Amazon’, has seen its logistics hubs frequently targeted over the past month.

Purported video of military & security outposts desperately trying to repel the inbound drone attack:

It’s crazy in Moscow.
All four airports are currently closed.

It’s also incredibly loud in various districts as Russia’s air defence tries to land a few more drones on its people. pic.twitter.com/qMz1JRadF5

— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) August 18, 2026

EuroNews observes that seven out of ten of the company’s biggest warehouses have been it and suffered serious damage, enough to take them offline: “Seven logistics hubs belonging to Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, have now been struck and knocked out of action since the campaign began in July.”

While none of this has substantially changed Russian forces’ ground momentum along the front lines, the Institute for the Study of War has said that the aerial campaign is effectively pressuring the Kremlin, given the steady economic setbacks and devastation.

“Moscow simply does not have enough air-defense coverage to shield every piece of infrastructure in its rear, even ten of its most valuable commercial sites,” the ISW assessment concluded. However, nothing has indicated that President Putin is ready to change course – instead we are seeing things steadily escalate on both sides.

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

Newly declassified intelligence emails reveal that decisions were made by National Security Agency (NSA) leadership to block reports of Chinese influence in American elections from reaching President Donald Trump.

Four pages of emails, all dated March 13, 2020, were released on Aug. 18 by the White House Government Transparency Task Force.

According to one email—written by an unidentified NSA employee following a meeting about intelligence reporting foreign efforts to target the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in the United States beginning in 2014—internal concerns were raised about the agency’s suppression of the reports.

“We did not know why we were here, trying to defend the election and identify threats to it, if we were unable to actually report what those threats were because of issues like this,” the NSA employee wrote.

According to another email, NSA analysts had proposed releasing the reports in 2018.

Task force officials are digging through files to determine why evidence of the Chinese Communist Party’s attempts to influence the elections was not passed on to the president, Congress, and some intelligence leaders, including then Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, now CIA director.

Certain aspects of the reports on the Chinese election influence were censored because “it was judged that some of the details regarding the 2016 election were ‘sensational’ and so required a limited distribution [redacted],” an NSA analyst wrote, noting that colleagues tried for 16 months to get the information published.

“People higher in the chain than us—including but not limited to people at ODNI [Office of the Director of National Intelligence]—time and again failed to make real decisions in a timely manner,” they said.

Intelligence officers were told in February 2020 that the office approved the report, and analysts prioritized its delivery, but the NSA deputy director blocked its release, according to the documents.

George Barnes served as NSA deputy director from 2017 to 2023.

“[The deputy director] explained that he was concerned that releasing the [redacted] at this time—in the current political climate, with an acting [director of national intelligence (DNI)] who had been tasked … to ‘clean house’ in the intelligence community, and with an administration that is suspicious of the [intelligence community] and aggressive in removing anyone who stand in their way—would damage NSA’s credibility,” the analyst wrote, referring to Trump appointee Richard Grenell, who became acting DNI on Feb. 20, 2020.

The analyst said the deputy director was concerned that releasing the information could be viewed as political in nature because of the two-year delay.

“I lacked the courage to point out that we, [redacted], had processed the information in a timely manner, and the delay in releasing it was due in part to decisions and inaction on the part of people in the room,” the analyst wrote.

According to the analyst, the deputy director also sought to keep the NSA’s reputation separate from the CIA, FBI, and ODNI—agencies he perceived “had been tarred as hosting or being part of the ‘deep state.’”

The analyst said the deputy director thought publishing the report would “destroy that trust.”

“He felt the questioning of NSA that would ensue would have ramifications on the credibility of NSA reporting overall and would result in morale problems among the broader NSA workforce, a la when the [redacted],” the analyst wrote.

Other elements of the gathered intelligence were excluded from reporting because it would have been impossible to conceal the identity of members of Congress, the analyst said. Such cases require special approval, as dictated by the “Gates Procedures,” established by Robert Gates, former director of Central Intelligence, in 1992.

Newly declassified National Security Agency documents include emails between intelligence officers about decisions made at higher levels to not share information with President Donald Trump, released by the White House Government Transparency Task Force on Aug. 18, 2026. Courtesy of the White House

Given the circumstances of the discussion, the other analyst deduced that disclosure was unlikely, writing in the memo: “In light of our experience with the [redacted], we would consider ourselves lucky” if new intelligence reporting regarding the 2020 election was distributed before election day.

The meeting concluded with the deputy director suggesting “exploring maybe a ‘crazy idea’ like using” an unidentified redacted process to share intelligence “so that the analysts there who needed to see this information could have access to it without it having to be serialized.”

Politicized Intelligence

A senior White House official briefed a small group of reporters, including The Epoch Times, on Aug. 16 about the upcoming release, emphasizing the politicization of intelligence gathering and reporting revealed by the documents.

“It shows that a very high-ranking official, a deputy director of the NSA at the time, made clear he wasn’t intending on sharing some of the intelligence about China and other election threats because of various political statements,” the official said.

“That’s the highest official thus far we have seen mentioned, who seemed to have some awareness that information would not be being sent to the president and to Congress and to policymakers about election interference or election security and election vulnerabilities.”

The internal emails came to light because they were forwarded to a civilian ombudsman tasked with overseeing intelligence community shortcomings.

Investigations Continue

More documents are under scrutiny by task force members, and new releases are expected soon, according to the administration official.

He said that in a few months, the task force is expected to release a “full body of evidence” detailing that there was “extensive intelligence about the vulnerabilities of the election system” gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies during the period between 2019 and 2021-22.

“But for some reason … the intelligence agencies just made a decision not to brief it to the people who could potentially implement policies that would address the vulnerabilities,” the official said.

Voting machine integrity was also of concern to the intelligence community, according to the official, with five foreign nations found to be capable of hacking U.S. election machines.

“The notion that we would go six years without fixing a known vulnerability is something that we’re all eager to solve,” he said.

The task force expects to release more details about some of the vulnerabilities in the coming weeks.

Prior revelations related to the suppression of intelligence reports include evidence that information was intentionally kept out of presidential daily briefings and declassified FBI documents. Then-FBI agent Nikki Floris wrote to a colleague that she “was basically running a shadow government across the FBI at one point” after successfully blocking the release of certain reports.

The Epoch Times reached out to the NSA for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi’s warning last week that the next global food crisis could begin as early as next year has been a major wake-up call for some, adding to the growing voices on institutional desks warning that food inflation is poised to re-accelerate. 

Remaining extra watchful about agricultural prices, Bloomberg reported earlier that US corn futures moved higher after preliminary results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated weaker-than-expected yields in parts of critical growing belts across the Midwest.

Corn yield estimates were about 3% below last year in Ohio and 14% lower in South Dakota. Soybean pod counts also declined, while severe storms and flooding in Indiana and Ohio added to concerns about further crop damage.”

“The crop tour has somewhat buoyed markets so far, considering the expected lower yields and unfavorable weather,” said Eliza Redfern, Senior Manager Industry Insights for Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

Chicago corn futures are approaching their 2026 highs, while wheat futures are closing in on levels last seen in 2023.

Meanwhile, and perhaps most alarming, the broader agricultural complex is confirming the move in soft commodities. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index rose to about 406, its highest level since early 2023 and roughly 27% above its 2024 low.

The benchmark remains below the extreme peaks reached during the 2008-10 Arab Spring crisis and 2021-22 food crises, but its accelerating upside momentum suggests inflationary pressure is building across the broader food complex.

The latest moves provide further evidence that Szentivanyi’s global food-crisis scenario may become a higher-probability outcome in 2027.

Meanwhile, the diesel crack spread is blowing out, a key indication of a “perfect storm” brewing in the refined products market that will certainly add to inflationary forces in the food complex. 

Klarna, the Swedish fintech firm best known for its buy now, pay later services, crashed in premarket trading in New York after it lowered its full-year revenue and gross merchandise value forecasts following a second-quarter active-user miss, overshadowing stronger-than-expected earnings.

The buy-now, pay-later firm now expects 2026 revenue of $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, down from a previous forecast exceeding $4.34 billion. Gross merchandise value is projected to be $149 billion to $151 billion, compared with earlier guidance of above $155 billion.

Third-quarter revenue is expected to range from $940 million to $980 million, well below the $1.11 billion consensus estimate. The company forecast gross merchandise value of $35 billion to $36 billion, versus expectations of $39.26 billion.

Second-quarter revenue was a bright spot, rising 27% to $1.04 billion and beating estimates, while gross merchandise value reached $36.6 billion. Earnings were 1 cent per share, compared with an expected 6 cent loss. But active users totaled 120 million for the quarter, missing the 122 million estimate.

Klarna cited about $600 million of currency headwinds and a more cautious view of Germany, its largest market by volume. The company left its US outlook unchanged, with US gross merchandise value rising 27% during the quarter.

Klarna noted that “the U.S. remains Klarna’s fastest-growing large region.”

Klarna also said CFO Niclas Neglén will step down in early 2027 after six years in the role.

Nordea analyst Thomas Nilsson provided clients with his first take on the earnings:

Klarna Group plc – Buy/USD 30: Strong Q2 overshadowed by FY26 guidance cut

Klarna delivered a strong Q2 with accelerating growth and improving profitability. GMV rose 18% y/y to USD 36.6bn, revenue increased 27% to USD 1.04bn, and transaction margin dollars grew 42% to USD 446m. Adjusted operating income increased to USD 91m, 100% above Visible Alpha consensus, corresponding to a margin of 9%.

The main negative was guidance. FY26 GMV guidance was cut to USD 149-151bn from >USD 155bn, mainly due to FX headwinds and softer volumes in Europe, particularly Germany. Klarna now expects FY26 adjusted operating income of USD 280-300m, compared with previous guidance of >USD 299m. Conclusion: A strong Q2 report that is overshadowed by the GMV guidance cut. Q3 adjusted operating income guidance is only USD 5-15m due to heavy investments ahead of the peak season. With FY26 guidance lowered by ~7% at the midpoint, we expect negative revisions to consensus estimates in the high single digits. In light of this, we view a negative share price reaction of a similar or greater magnitude as warranted today.

Klarna shares are down 18.5% in premarket trading.

The most staggering figure from Klarna’s earnings report is that more than 120 million consumers now use its payment network for everyday purchases, ranging from groceries and gasoline to airline tickets.

Management identified the US as its fastest-growing market, but that bright spot carries a darker macro warning: increasingly stretched US consumers are turning to short-term financing to cover routine expenses.

After Housing Starts exploded higher in June (driven by a massive rebound in multi-family units), July was expected to see a reflexive decline of 5.9% MoM…

…things were considerably worse, with US Housing Starts plunging 12.4% MoM (the third major monthly drop in four months)…

On the other hand, the more forward-looking Building Permits (preliminary for July) rose 5.0% MoM (well above the 0.6% MoM expected), after two months in a row of declines.

On a SAAR basis, Starts at back near post-COVID lows while Permits are holding in a four year range…

Under the hood, both Single-Family and Multi-Family movements were stroinger for Permits abut weaker for Starts (after multi-family starts soared last month)…

This shouldn’t be a total surprise after yesterday’s decline in builder sentiment (confidence among US homebuilders dropped for a second month to the lowest level of the year, dragged lower by elevated borrowing costs and higher material and land prices).

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders’ self-satisfying confidence… and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation…

US futures are a “sea of red” (as Bloomberg describes it) in early trading as thin summer volumes persist, with the wrong kind of inflation coming to the fore and Monday’s tech selloff weighing on sentiment despite bullish AI news. The recent stock-bonds disconnect is finally being reappraised with US futures lower across the board. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% with Semis, Mag7, and Memory all under pressure, while Software is bid. Nvidia dropped 1.8% as the cost of protecting its debt against default closed in on a high reached last month. Defensives and Energy are leading as investors continue to de-gross / de-lever. Tech stocks drove declines across global markets equities as long-dated bond yields pushed further into multidecade highs and oil prices extended their climb, draining traders’ appetite for risky assets.  Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose 2bps to 5.33%, the highest since 2007 as “yields seem to be reacting to a combination of energy prices, the deteriorating US fiscal situation, elevated credit issuance, and BOJ/JPY dynamics which are all driving term premia higher“, per JPM.  US crude neared $85 a barrel with Brent trading above $91, while the Diesel crack spread rose above $100 for the first time ever, as tensions in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. The dollar was little changed while gold declined. Price pressure concerns are hardly new. But with long-term yields around the globe hitting multi-decade highs, the debate may be shifting toward whether the set-up reflects persistent “sticky” inflation or an AI-driven “growth” dynamic. For the former, the signals are clear to see: persistently elevated oil prices, soaring diesel costs, “Dr. Copper” dynamics and the effects of El Niño. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Import / Export prices, Housing Starts, Mfg measures, and Pending Home Sales. Tomorrow’s Fed Minutes are likely more impactful as he bond market focuses on next week’s Jackson Hole mtg / Warsh speech

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Meta Platforms (META) slips 1% as the company heads to court Tuesday for a high-stakes showdown with a coalition of state attorneys general over claims that the company deliberately designed Facebook and Instagram to encourage compulsive use among young users (Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.7%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.9%)

• Chipmakers and other AI-related firms slide, weighing on US stock futures, as risk-off sentiment sets in.
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is down 2% after Raymond James downgraded the clothing company to market perform following the stock’s recent rally.
• Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) rises 26% after saying a late-stage trial of its experimental drug met its primary endpoint for patients who experience low blood sugar levels following bariatric surgery.
• Aon (AON) slips about 1% on light trading after saying CFO Edmund Reese is leaving after two years in the post.
• Baidu ADRs (BIDU) drop 6% after the Chinese search-engine operator reported its fifth quarter of free cash outflow in the past six, thanks to soaring capital expenditures. Its revenue was shy of analyst estimates, dragged by underperformance at its subsidiary iQiyi.
• Bath & Body Works (BBWI) climbs 3% after Citi raised the recommendation on the company to buy, with analyst Paul Lejuez noting a second quarter EPS beat and positive tone about recent product launches.
• Fabrinet (FN) slides 9% after the process engineering and manufacturing services firm’s Datacom sales disappointed investors.
• Home Depot (HD) climbs 2% after results beat estimates in the latest quarter, a sign that spending on improvement projects is holding up despite high borrowing and housing costs.
• Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 2% as Mizuho downgrades the company to neutral, saying cash requirements may pressure the balance sheet.

August’s rebound in chipmakers faltered in premarket trading, with semiconductor stocks sliding 3.4% and Nvidia down almost 2% as its CDS push wider. Equity markets are struggling under the weight of rising borrowing costs as bond investors demand higher premiums to finance spendthrift governments and shield against persistently sticky inflation. Elevated oil prices have also reinforced expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy.

“The Middle East is clearly re-escalating again and long-term interest rates are rising, and these are things that end up corroding the value of equities,” said Emma Moriarty at CG Asset Management. “And in a market where it’s summertime, liquidity is a little bit thinner, it’s a bit more prone to volatility.

In Europe, French 30-year yields hit their highest since 2008, while their UK peers were approaching 6%. Germany’s borrowing costs hit a 15-year high in a major sale of long-dated bonds.  Yardeni Research warned investors are becoming more concerned about the surge in borrowing by AI hyperscalers and questioning whether the Fed will remain sufficiently vigilant on inflation if oil prices climb again.

“We aren’t pushing the panic button,” strategists led by Ed Yardeni noted. “However, we are closely monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might do so.

Events in the Middle East will remain a key point of focus as both the US and Iran show less willingness to compromise. President Donald Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with the Islamic Republic, dimming prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

For Mohit Kumar at Jefferies, there is “no easy way out” and “further pain in the near term” for energy costs. “We have stayed away from the long end of the curve and rates duration and instead focus on steepeners,” he wrote. “We see no reason to change our portfolio.”

Traders expect tech-stock volatility to continue as investors shift their focus back and forth between robust earnings and worries over whether debt-fueled infrastructure investment will deliver sufficient returns to justify the spending. “You are going to get winners and losers and you’re going to get a lot of wasted capex,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at  St. James’s Place. “That, to me, is a huge future challenge.”

The Stoxx 600 equity index headed for a fifth straight day of losses, the longest such stretch this year. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• H&M climbed as much as 4.6%, the most in almost 11 months, as Citi places the Swedish fashion retailer on a 90-day positive catalyst watch ahead of its third-quarter results
• Coloplast shares gained as much as 3.6% after the Danish medical-products maker reported better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter
• Hemnet Group shares surged as much as 13%, to the highest in more than three months, after JPMorgan double-upgraded the Swedish online property portal to overweight and said it’s “worth revisiting” following a period of underperformance
• Skan shares rose as much as 8.5% to the highest level in almost a year after the pharma equipment supplier reported first-half results
• Basilea shares jumped as much as 8.1%, the most in more than a year, after the Swiss biopharmaceutical company reported an increase in revenue for the first half-year and upgraded its outlook for the full year
• 1&1 shares soared as much as 6.5% as its parent United Internet plans to buy as many as 6 million shares in the telecom company
• Schott Pharma shares advanced as much as 7.6%, to the highest in almost a year, after Barclays said the German pharma packaging company is leaving its issues “in the rear-view mirror” and is set for growth acceleration
• Huber+Suhner shares dropped as much as 12%, the most since 2020, after the maker of antenna systems and fiber-optic cables reported weak results that missed expectations in the first half
• Royal Unibrew fell as much as 9.1%, the most since April, on weak second-quarter earnings because of a soft performance in Northern Europe
• Scor shares fell as much as 3.1%, the most in eight weeks, as UBS downgrades the reinsurer to sell from neutral

Asian stocks were set to snap a four-session winning streak as gains in oil prices fueled inflation concerns, while rising global bond yields also dimmed the appeal of equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an early advance to trade 1% lower. Tech and industrials were the biggest drags on the benchmark while subgauges of healthcare and energy stocks advanced. Japan’s Nikkei led losses among key national indexes in the region, dropping 2.5%. South Korea’s Kospi also reversed early gains and finished lower as trading resumed after a holiday. Asia’s stock benchmark is up more than 2% so far in August following two straight months of losses. Traders will be studying minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, due for release later this week, for clues to the central bank’s rate path. Globally, investors are taking profit and reducing exposure, said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “Seems like a short-term issue, not a major catalyst for another steep fall.” Elsewhere, Indonesia’s benchmark index rose to the highest in three months after President Prabowo Subianto’s 2027 budget speech on Friday eased some investor concerns over fiscal discipline.

In rates, treasuries drift lower into the early US session, with futures near lows of the day and the curve extending a steepening move. Longer-dated bond yields have continued to carve out fresh peaks alongside persistently higher energy prices. US yields cheaper by up to 2bp across the long end, with 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by 1bp and 1.4bp on the day, respectively. US 10-year yields trade around 4.74%, cheaper by 1bp, with bunds and gilts lagging by an additional 2bp and 1bp in the sector.  Germany long-end lags, following a €4 billion ($4.6 billion) August 2056 syndicated bond sale at highest yield since 2011. US session focus includes a busy data slate, while another large day for corporate issuance is also expected. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already. Twelve issuers priced $9.1 billion on Monday, pushing monthly volume above $145 billion for a new August record. Issuers paid about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2 times covered. Another busy session for corporate deals is expected for Tuesday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $8 billion 30-year TIPS (Thursday)

In commodities, Brent crude hit a fresh month-to-date high during European trade against the backdrop of dwindling expectations of an immediate resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Focus is moving beyond crude benchmarks with the widening in crack spreads garnering attention. The Nymex heating oil and ICE gasoil cracks both hit fresh records on Monday, with the former topping $100 a barrel. US gasoline also gained, with the Nymex prompt spread the strongest since 2022. 

Diesel crack hits record $102. This is absolutely unprecedented.

Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass through in history pic.twitter.com/OtAdgrCvb3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 17, 2026

This adds further ammunition to the inflation angst surrounding geopolitical disruptions and in Europe serves to raise scrutiny over government balance sheets. France is a standout with short bets on French paper continuing to ratchet higher ahead of upcoming budget negotiations. The recent ascent of precious metals is faltering. Spot gold down 0.5%. 

In FX markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a three-day losing streak to climb 0.1%; oil prices extended gains after prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran dimmed. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.2% to 159.78, highest since July 31; one-week risk reversals trade at 193bps, puts over calls, compared to Monday’s high of 248bps. GBP/USD slipped as much as 0.2% to 1.3520; data showed UK employers shed more workers in July and job vacancies hit a fresh five-year low. EUR/USD was modestly lower at 1.1575; one-month options sentiment turned bullish for the first time since early March. Kiwi led G-10 losses; NZD/USD fell 0.5% to 0.5872

Looking at the US economic data calendar, we get ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), August New York Fed services business activity, July import/export price index, housing starts, building permits (8:30am), industrial production (9:15am) and pending home sales (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending ‌a temporary ceasefire agreement. RTRS
• Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country’s Red Sea coast, shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint. WSJ
• Long-term borrowing costs across major economies hit multi-decade highs on Tuesday as inflation concerns, deficit fears and surging AI bond issuance put pressure on government debt around the world. FT
• US investment-grade bond sales have set a third straight monthly record, continuing the market’s fastest pace of issuance as spending on the artificial-intelligence buildout fuels corporate borrowing. August’s high-grade debt supply reached $145.2 billion, topping 2020’s total of $136 billion for the month. BBG
• Chinese AI companies are building systems that perform almost as well as leading models without the most powerful hardware, challenging their US rivals. One measure of China’s long AI push is its dominance in 2023 patent applications. BBG
• China’s economy showed across-the-board weakness in July and growth likely slipped further below the government’s annual target, sparking a call from Premier Li Qiang on officials to ramp up supportive measures. BBG
• Apple has acknowledged for the first time that regulatory changes forcing it to loosen control of its App Store are weighing on its more than $100bn services business, a rare concession that antitrust action is beginning to dent one of the company’s most profitable divisions. FT
• Unemployment in the U.K. was unchanged in the three months through June, while wage growth edged up slightly, likely not moving the dial for Bank of England policymakers who are expected to leave interest rates on hold next month. WSJ
• Canada faces a new round of 50% U.S. tariffs this week that businesses said could cause job losses in some already struggling industries, while complicating broader negotiations over the future of North America’s free trade agreement. RTRS
• Anthropic PBC is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion based on its current performance, up more than sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, where all major indices declined amid higher oil prices and yields due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following the expiry of the US-Iran MoU and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman. ASX 200 eked out slight gains amid a slew of earnings, as results from BHP and CSL helped keep the index afloat, although gains were capped by weakness in telecoms, financials and the consumer sectors.
Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 68,000 level with underperformance in Japan amid upside in yields, higher oil prices, fears of a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes, and the recent weak GDP data. KOSPI initially rallied on return from the long weekend, but then faltered as the early tech resilience waned, and with some suggesting that US President Trump’s decision to reduce military drills with South Korea could partly be due to frustration regarding the pace of South Korea’s investment pledge. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the recent disappointing economic data, in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed forecasts, although the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries announced measures to boost consumption in lower-tier cities and counties.

Top Asian News

• China’s Ministry of Commerce and eight other ministries issued guidance aimed at boosting consumption in lower-tier cities and counties, with fiscal support a key focus. Measures include upgrading retail channels, encouraging new consumption formats, improving local service efficiency and expanding eldercare, childcare, education, healthcare and sports facilities, while eligible personal consumer loans and loans to service-sector operators may receive fiscal interest subsidies.
• PBoC plans to expand Yuan offshore market and is backing the creation of a new model for real estate developments, adding they will intensify review of macroeconomic and financial efforts.

European bourses are softer across the board, with the recent bond selloff causing risk aversion. Persisting inflationary pressures, increased government spending and shifting investor demographics are hitting bonds globally. Political uncertainty, especially in the US ahead of the midterms, is also putting pressure on bonds. Its impact on equities is that higher yields would weigh on profits as it would require larger payouts. Higher yields would also mean higher discount stock valuations. Sectors highlight the negative bias. Retail and Energy are the only sectors posting decent gains while Tech, Industrial Goods & Services and Basic Resources are the sector laggards.

Top European News

• UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.9%).
• UK Employment Change (Jun) 83k (Prev. 147k).
• UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%).
• UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.4%).
• UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -11.0k vs. Exp. 11.2k (Prev. -6.4k).
• UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jul) -13k (Prev. -13k).
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 34.2 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 26.3).
• German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -61.1 vs. Exp. -68.8 (Prev. -77.6).
• European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 31.4 vs. Exp. 25.4 (Prev. 23.4).

FX

• DXY is modestly firmer today with headline catalysts light; the latest reporting optimistic from Pakistan but not reflected by Iran and the US. All-in-all, the market is viewing the latest updates as both sides in stalemate, and with Hormuz traffic low oil it looks like Crude could stay elevated and continue to weigh on the risk tone. Absent tier-1 data and headlines should keep focus on yield moves with US supply tomorrow potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. DXY is within a narrow 99.52-99.69 range.
• UK Jobs: The strong wage figures were caveated by a 6.1% rise in public sector pay helped by NHS pay awards, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printed below the prior; sparking a modest dovish reaction with Cable falling 15 pips; action which has persisted two hours later. Now, Wednesday’s CPI is in focus, and with GBP having had a strong run vs. the USD, it could see a decent move should figures rise at a slower than expected pace.
• Action elsewhere is quiet. NZD dipped below 0.59 to a 0.5870 trough amid the risk tone, USD/JPY looks towards 160.00 as oil prices hit its terms of trade, action which also fails to help energy exporters NOK and CAD, the latter which is flat against the USD, while NOK is weaker against the Buck (USD/NOK +0.2%), but firmer vs. SEK after it strengthened on Monday.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks continue to move lower, in a continuation of the action seen last week. Yields continue to trudge higher; the steepening seen in the last few sessions appears to have taken a breather this morning, with yields across the curve moving higher to a similar magnitude.
• Yields continue to hold at multi-decade highs; the US 30yr (5.32%) sits at levels not seen since 11 June 2007, with the next peak going back to 2004 (5.53%). As for the yield spread, the US2s30s continues to widen, now at 113bps (vs 98bps at the start of the month). To remind, front-end rates were pressured after recent soft US data which led to a dovish Fed repricing, whilst long-end rates have been impacted by fiscal/geopolitical/political uncertainty.
• USTs (-3 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks and trade within a 108-10 to 108-15+ range. Domestic newsflow has been light this morning, and will likely remain so for the remainder of the day given the lack of Tier 1 data and the summer lull. Bunds (-35 ticks) and Gilts (-30 ticks) also follow the bearish tone, but UK paper has its own data to digest this morning.
• Overall, the UK’s jobs data doesn’t show a significant change in the labour market, a point that was expected heading into the release. Initial focus on the hotter-than-expected wage metrics, including the upward revision to the measure with bonuses. Additionally, the claimant count unexpectedly declined and the prior was revised down. However, this is offset by the unemployment rate unexpectedly remaining at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printing below the prior.
• The UK sells GBP 4bln 4.875% 2036 Gilt: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 5.155% (prev. 5.040%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.1bps).
• Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 4.15x (prev. 3.43x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 2.163%), tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.03).

Commodities

• WTI and Brent Oct futures hold a positive bias as constructive geopolitical headlines are trumped by escalatory rhetoric (see below). WTI trades towards the upper end of USD 84.64-85.68/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 85.04/bbl high (vs low 81.50/bbl). Brent eyes USD 92/bbl in a current USD 90.64-91.85/bbl range after notching a USD 88.01-91.21/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF resides around recent ranges with gains of some 1.5% intraday, testing EUR 63/MWh to the upside in recent trade.
• Metals are subdued as elevated energy prices keep the USD underpinned and thus weigh on the complex. Spot gold pulled back to around USD 4,400/oz and earlier hit lows close to its 100 DMA (USD 4,385/oz) in a USD 4,386-4,436/oz intraday range at the time of writing. Spot silver remains within yesterday’s USD 64.75-66.56/oz range. Base metals are lower across the board. 3M LME copper tested support around the 14k/t mark this morning to trade in a current USD 13,996.18- 14,174.00/t range at the time of writing.
• In terms of the main geopolitical updates, US President Trump reiterated that the US remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and said Iran wants to reach a deal, although he does not believe Tehran will agree to the terms, he considers necessary and stressed that he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU. Trump also criticized US-ally Oman, saying he does not think the country “behaves very well” and that the US could handle it very easily. Meanwhile, Pakistani journalist Anas Malick reported that an understanding to extend the US-Iran ceasefire under the Islamabad MoU has been reached and agreed in principle. Separately, UKMTO reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz in which a vessel conducting an outbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile. This morning, Houthi rebels said they used multiple drones to attack an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan region, although it is unclear if this is referring to a fresh attack or last week’s attack.
• Libya is seeking investment of up to USD 40bln to develop oil resources, according to FT.
• India is reportedly considering cutting its 100% tax on imported sugar to help curb domestic prices, according to Bloomberg.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney spoke late on Monday after several days of trade negotiations between the countries, according to a Bloomberg reporter citing sources.

Central Banks

• ECB’s Lane said inflation will hover around 3% for the rest of the year but it depends on whether there is a resolution to the crisis. Lane added that food inflation is relatively low.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the blockade and oil embargo are lifted. He added that “Iran is ready to inflict a heavier defeat on the enemy than before, in proportion to his actions and encroachments.”
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room and crew casualty
• Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with drones, according to Saba news citing sources.
• Airstrikes targeted the Abu al-Duhur military airport in eastern Idlib countryside, Syria, with a Jerusalem Post stating that Israeli fighter jets were responsible for the attack on the Abu al-Duhur Airbase in northwest Syria. There were also reports of Israeli warplanes targeted the areas of Mansouri and Deir Saryan in southern Lebanon, while Lebanese media reported intermittent Israeli shelling on the high ground of Jabal al-Rafie on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
• An explosion was reported at the Shaddadi gas pipeline in the outskirts of Hasakah, Syria.
• UAE’s Foreign Minister discussed the latest regional developments in a phone call with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister.
• COSCO Shipping (1919 HK) and CMES have reportedly stopped sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, sources suggest.
• Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week, Reuters reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Moscow mayor said Russia shot down 180 drones in the Moscow region overnight.
• Western diplomatic source said an increasing number of European politicians are advocating for a resumption of dialogue with Russia, TASS reported.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia and North Korea are fighting to establish a new, righteous world order, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jul Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Jul Housing Starts, est. 1345k, prior 1427k
• 8:30 am: Jul P Building Permits, est. 1375k, prior 1374k
• 9:15 am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
• 9:15 am: Jul Capacity Utilization, est. 76.3%, prior 76.1%
• 10:00 am: Jul Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0%, prior -5.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen growing weakness over the last 24 hours, with bonds and equities slipping thanks to negative geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. There wasn’t a single catalyst for the declines, but with few signs of the US and Iran coming to any sort of a deal, that meant investors priced in a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Brent crude oil (+2.65%) closed above $90/bbl yesterday for the first time in two weeks, and this morning we’ve seen a further +0.72% rise to $91.52/bbl. So that’s led to pressure across the board, with the S&P 500 (-0.52%) slipping back, and futures are pointing to another -0.32% decline today. Moreover, inflation concerns helped send long-end bond yields up to fresh multi-year highs, with the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closing at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%. And that trend has shown no sign of letting up overnight either, with the 30yr Treasury yield up another +1.0bps to 5.32%.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, yesterday’s headlines made clear that the US and Iran were still far apart from any sort of deal. For instance, President Trump told reporters he had no interest in extending the 60-day memorandum of understanding agreed in June, which technically expired yesterday, even if it effectively collapsed back in July. He also threatened to bomb Oman if they got in the way of the US, and in a Fox News interview earlier in the day, Trump said there was a back channel with officials from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, but that he was in “no hurry”. Meanwhile, Iran denied Trump’s assertions of a back channel, saying “There are no talks taking place between IRGC officials and the Americans”. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also didn’t sound in any rush either for a deal, saying that the US is playing the long game with Iran.

With both sides still far apart, investors grew pessimistic that the Strait of Hormuz would properly reopen any time soon. So that meant Brent crude oil prices (+2.65%) rose to $90.87/bbl by the close, their highest level since late July. And there were sizeable increases further out the oil futures curve, with the 12-month Brent future (+2.00%) jumping to a two-month high of $78.01/bbl. In other words, investors are pricing in a more protracted period of higher oil prices again.

As investor concern mounted about a longer closure for the Strait of Hormuz, that put pressure on fixed income, particularly longer-dated sovereign bonds. In fact, 30yr yields hit multi-year highs across several countries, which showed how the fiscal pressures on governments aren’t going away either. Indeed, in the US, the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closed at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst the US 30yr real yield (+5.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 3.08%. Then in Europe, we also saw Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%, and France’s 30yr yield (+2.2bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.87%.

For shorter maturities, the jump in yields wasn’t quite as big, but they also moved consistently higher. The 10yr Treasury yield (+3.0bps) was up to 4.72%, and in Europe, 10yr bund yields (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.22%, whilst the 10yr OAT yield (+2.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.06%. However, there were more limited moves in central bank expectations and for front-end yields, with market pricing for a September Fed rate hike only inching up from 32% to 35%.

For equities, the stagflationary impulse from higher oil prices meant it was a similar story of declines on both sides of the Atlantic. So by the close, the S&P 500 (-0.52%) posted its worst day of August so far, and it would have been worse had it not been for a rebound in chip stocks, as the Philly semiconductor index closed up +1.64% on the day. Otherwise though, the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (367) since early July as all major sector groups except energy fell on the day, and the equal-weighted index (-0.92%) also had its worst day in over a month. Over in Europe, markets closed before the weakening fully played out, but the STOXX 600 (-0.22%) still posted a 4th consecutive decline, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-0.38%) and the CAC 40 (-0.66%).

That negative trend has been clear overnight in Asia, where most of the major indices have lost ground this morning, including the Nikkei (-1.64%), the KOSPI (-0.60%), the Hang Seng (-0.65%), CSI 300 (-0.79%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.39%). Those moves also follow on from the latest batch of China’s economic data yesterday, which generally surprised on the downside. For instance, retail sales were only up +0.6% year-on-year in July (vs. +1.5% expected), whilst industrial production only grew by +4.5% year-on-year (vs. +5.0% expected). Otherwise, the pressure on long-end bond yields has also continued in Asia, with Japan’s 10yr yields (+1.5bps) at a post-1996 high of 2.92% this morning. Meanwhile in Australia, the 30yr yield (+5.6bps) is at 5.59% this morning, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 2016.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although it did generally lean in a hawkish direction and kept up the pressure on bond yields. First, the Empire State manufacturing survey unexpectedly jumped to a 4-year high of 20.6 in August (vs. 10.0 expected). Separately in Canada, the headline CPI increased by more than expected to +3.0% in July (vs. +2.9% expected). Moreover, the core measures were also above consensus, with the median core measure up to +2.0% (vs. +1.9% expected), and the trim core measure at +1.9% (vs. +1.8% expected). So investors dialled up the chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada’s December meeting, with the probability rising to 68% on the day, up from 58% on Friday.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales for July. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s the German ZEW survey for August, and the latest UK labour market data. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Home Depot.