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Soleimani-Class Warship Sunk Near Strait Of Hormuz; Second Iranian Ship Hit Off Sri Lanka

Soleimani-Class Warship Sunk Near Strait Of Hormuz; Second Iranian Ship Hit Off Sri Lanka

Update (0844ET):

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that “America is winning” as Operation Epic Fury continues to neutralize IRGC high-value assets across Iran. This is the second news conference at the Department of War since the operation began on Saturday morning.

Hegseth also provided an update on the IRGC Navy’s IRIS Shahid Sayyad Shirazi, Soleimani-class corvette, that sank overnight, saying, “Last night, we sunk their prize ship, the Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice.”

Here’s footage of the warship: 

However, Hegseth did not provide an update on the Mowj-class frigate Dena that sank off the coast of Sri Lanka in what local officials described as a submarine attack. We’re sure the Trump administration will boast about that hit in the near future.

*   *   * 

The latest escalation, with at least ten tankers burning in or around the Strait of Hormuz, an overnight kamikaze drone boat strike on a Russian shadow-fleet LNG tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, and the reported sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka in what local officials described as a submarine attack, only suggests to any seasoned military strategist that the conflicts tied to the Middle East and Eastern Europe are expanding beyond their traditional theaters.

Reuters reports that Iran’s Navy Mowj-class frigate Dena was sunk by a US submarine off Sri Lanka’s Indian Ocean coast. According to a source in Sri Lanka’s navy and defense ministry, the submarine attack left 32 personnel rescued by Sri Lankan authorities, while 101 remain missing.

Defense sources explained to the media outlet that it was unclear who attacked the Iranian warship.

Here’s more from Reuters:

The navy received a distress call from an Iranian ship and informed the Sri Lankan air force, and both launched a search and rescue operation, the spokesman said.

Sri Lankan forces were focused on saving lives on the Iranian ship and will investigate the cause of the incident later, he said.

Sri Lankan forces had also not observed any other ship or aircraft in the area of the incident, he added.

“We are hopeful we can rescue more people and will continue (operations) until we are sure,” he said.

Related:

Let’s not forget that US forces in Operation Epic Fury have destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian naval fleet in the port of Bandar Abbas, while Ali Shamkhani, an admiral in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed by an airstrike. The US-Israeli strikes have reportedly wiped out Iran’s air force and navy.

They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection; that’s been knocked out,” President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon during a news conference at the White House with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Without a credible air force or navy, the IRGC’s ability to sustain any meaningful blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be limited. However, its capacity to wage asymmetric warfare through drones is still unsettling to shipowners, which helps explain why President Trump has offered insurance backstops and naval escorts for tankers transiting the narrow waterway.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 08:44

US Chemical Companies “Net Beneficiaries” Of Middle East Energy Disruption Crisis

US Chemical Companies “Net Beneficiaries” Of Middle East Energy Disruption Crisis

Bloomberg News headlines indicate that Iraq has begun shutting down oil output at Rumaila, the world’s largest “supergiant” oil field, while other Gulf states have idled some of the world’s largest refineries and major energy hubs following Iranian drone strikes. This signals that a massive energy disruption is set to hit global energy markets as the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed.

Goldman analysts led by Duffy Fischer have released a note assessing whether U.S. chemical manufacturers have exposure to Middle East energy disruptions. They find that “U.S. companies are likely to be net beneficiaries” of the Middle East conflict and the resulting energy disruptions.

Fischer pointed out that as oil prices rise, naphtha-based competitors in Europe and Asia are squeezed, while U.S. chemical makers that rely more on natural gas are relatively insulated due to domestic production. That, in turn, widens the U.S. margin advantage.

These U.S. chemical manufacturers use raw materials such as natural gas, crude oil liquids, salt, sulfur, and other minerals to produce products like:

  • basic chemicals: ethylene, propylene, methanol, chlorine, ammonia

  • plastics/resins: polyethylene, PVC, polyurethane inputs

  • fertilizers: nitrogen, phosphate products

  • industrial chemicals: solvents, coatings, acids, adhesives

  • specialty chemicals: ingredients used in electronics, autos, construction, packaging, and consumer goods

Fischer explained:

The oil to gas ratio is a large driver of U.S. chemical production profitability. With oil prices increasing (see our Commodity team’s note and podcast), this will push up the price of naphtha, which is likely to increase the cost of European and Asian feedstocks. Since many naphtha crackers are currently near breakeven levels, that should force them to raise prices. This should lead the spot and export prices higher for U.S. product. The result would be an increase in U.S. margins as their natural gas feedstocks are not likely to be impacted. Lastly, while the industry believed that the March PE contract prices would roll flat, the events would significantly increase the possibility of U.S. producers achieving pricing in March.

Next, the analysts assess whether U.S. chemical manufacturers have exposure to the Middle East. They point out that Middle East disruptions would benefit U.S. chemical manufacturers.

Here’s how:

Significant amounts of competing chemical products are produced in the affected Middle East region. If this product is offline or is not able to ship then that would start to tighten global supply-demand and open up more volume opportunities for US producers. We look at three buckets of production (Iranian, UAE/Kuwait/Qatar, and Eastern Saudi Arabian). The impact on Iranian production is unclear and ships carrying production from Eastern Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar through the Straight of Hormuz appear to be disrupted. Exhibit 1 shows the greatest impact to the least for impacted chemical chains: Nitrogen, Sulfur, Methanol, MTBE, Phosphate, Polyethylene, MDI, TiO2, Chlorovinyls. While U.S. companies are likely to be net beneficiaries, there are some U.S. companies with assets in the region that may see negative impacts. Barring any U.S. assets being kinetically impacted, the net should be positive for all U.S. chemical companies.

Exposure:

Regional Exports by Chemical Chain as a % of Global Exports

Company Asset Exposure to the Middle East

More in the full Goldman note (here) available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 05:45

Edinburgh Leader Hails City Diversity After Migrant Stabbing Spree Hospitalizes Two

Edinburgh Leader Hails City Diversity After Migrant Stabbing Spree Hospitalizes Two

Authored by Thomas Brooke va Remix News,

In the wake of Monday’s stabbing spree by a suspect reported by one national newspaper to have been a Somali immigrant, the leader of City of Edinburgh Council has praised the capital’s diversity and said she wants the city to “stay that way.”

Cllr. Jane Meagher spoke out after a man was arrested in connection with Monday morning’s violence, which saw armed officers swarm a block of flats and nearby streets following reports of a suspect carrying two large knives.

Footage of the suspect circulated widely on social media, showing a Black man wielding large blades in both hands.

The suspect’s nationality has not yet been confirmed by Police Scotland.

At least two people were injured during the attack, with one man suffering injuries “consistent with being stabbed” and a woman sustaining a head wound. Both were taken to hospital in the Scottish capital.

In a statement issued after the suspect was taken into custody, Meagher said she was “deeply shocked” by what had happened and paid tribute to emergency responders and council staff.

“Moments like this remind us of the need to stand together – and of the importance of community spirit and tolerance,” she said.

Edinburgh is a proud, welcoming, and diverse city. Our biggest strength lies in those who live here – people from all walks of life, cultures, and backgrounds – and we all have a part to play in making sure it stays that way,” she added.

The attack prompted a major police response, with firearms officers deployed and a large cordon placed around flats near Calder Gardens. Local schools were also locked down.

Two men told BBC Scotland they saw a man holding what appeared to be two blood-stained knives outside a shop. One said, “I got out of my car, and the guy came up to me with his hands behind his back. He said, ‘Can I speak to you?’ He had the two knives behind his back, covered in blood.”

“He started going towards the school, so I was just trying to chase him back. He was coming towards me the whole time. He walked away up to the flats,” the witness added.

At a nearby supermarket, staff and customers hid in a back room after a worker raised the alarm. Shopkeeper Asif Hussain told the Scottish Sun newspaper that an employee phoned him to report that “a guy with a knife” had entered the premises.

“I told them, ‘Keep yourself barricaded in the back,’” he said. “That’s our procedure if anything like that happens. You barricade yourself in the back of the store.

“The guy tried to force open the door but couldn’t get in. He went behind the counter and started to smash up anything he could get his hands on.”

The suspect then headed towards a nearby primary school before holing up in a high-rise apartment block.

Video footage showed him grinning at locals as they hurled abuse at him, telling him to jump.

After several hours, the man was eventually apprehended and remains in custody.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 05:00

Visualizing The Generation Gap In TV Consumption

Visualizing The Generation Gap In TV Consumption

Perhaps the main threat to “traditional” television isn’t that Americans stopped watching video content, it’s that video is everywhere.

Young Americans in particular tend to get their video fix in the “snack aisle”, i.e. on TikTokInstagram or YouTube, where shorts, reels, highlight clips or whatever the algorithm serves up next are taking up a growing share of screentime.

That helps explain why heavy TV use skews older.

As Statista’s Felix Richter shows in the chart below, based on data from Statista Consumer Insights, 47 percent of respondents aged 55 to 64 years old, the oldest group included in the survey, watch TV for more than 11 hours per week.

Infographic: The Generation Gap in TV Consumption | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the youngest group, those aged 18 to 24, only 22 percent of respondents said the same.

So while TV is still very much alive, it’s competing in an increasingly crowded video universe where the default for young people is no longer “what’s on tonight?” but rather “what’s next?”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 04:15

Could War In Iran Spark A 2016-Style Migrant Crisis? Hungary’s PM Orbán Warns Of Worst-Case Scenario

Could War In Iran Spark A 2016-Style Migrant Crisis? Hungary’s PM Orbán Warns Of Worst-Case Scenario

Via Remix News,

The migration crisis for Europe brought on by the war in Syria could repeat itself with Iran, but with Iran’s population dwarfing Syria’s, the crisis could be much worse, warns Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Ahead of Hungary’s April elections, Orbán has campaigned on peace, specifically staying out of the war in Ukraine, as well as preserving Hungary’s ability to say no to migration. However, he is now warning of further escalating dangers in the Middle East, including the risk of another wave of mass migration, similar to the masses of migrants seen in the capital of Budapest back in the 2015-2016 refugee crisis.

Speaking at a forum in Sopron, he told those gathered that the world is becoming increasingly unstable, and Hungary must also prepare for the consequences.

“There is also a war in the Middle East now. No one knows what immigration problems the prolonged military conflict will cause. Iran is a country of 90 million. If they start from there, Turkey is next, and they are already here in the Balkans, and they are here at our fence, the prime minister said in his latest video posted to X.

“We need to be sensible. This is not a time for taking risks,” he added.

War in the Middle East brings rising risks. A prolonged conflict may trigger new waves of mass migration, flowing from Iran to Turkey, through the Balkans, to our border. At the same time, LNG deliveries from Qatar are halted and energy prices are rising. These are testing times. Hungary must prepare and make sure the dam holds,” Orbán captioned his video on X, showing clips from the crisis in 2015.

Another key area of uncertainty is Hungary’s energy supply, already at risk due to Ukrainian President Zelensky’s refusal to reopen the Druzhba pipeline. According to Orbán, in the wake of the attacks on Iran, Qatar has now temporarily stopped the delivery of some of its liquefied natural gas, with prices spiking as much as 50 percent. Similar price moves are foreseen in the oil market as well.

War and its consequences, from mass migration to higher energy prices, is what faces the Hungarian nation today.

“It kills people, it shakes the economy, it can cause big problems, and we need to be there to stop it in its tracks to curb its effects,” Orbán said.

Notably, other European right-wing parties have taken a similar stance, while expressing fears that the Iran war could spark another refugee crisis.

The parliamentary faction of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) published a message on social media, stating that they “share the expectation that de-escalation must now be the top priority. For the danger is great that further military escalation could plunge the country into civil war and increase tensions across the entire region. We are therefore following the current developments with great concern. The federal government must now take all necessary precautions to prevent possible terrorist attacks in Germany and ensure that there is no repeat of uncontrolled migration to Germany. Germany’s primary interest lies in protecting our internal security, preventing further export of terror to Germany, and consistently countering new waves of migration.”

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 03:30

Ranking The World’s Most Powerful Countries By Soft Power In 2026

Ranking The World’s Most Powerful Countries By Soft Power In 2026

The ‘hard power’ versus ‘soft power’ framework of international relations has perhaps never been more prescient as President Trump flexes his ability to use military strength to induce an outcome of his liking, having tried (and failed) to achieve it via the more diplomatic arts of soft power persuasion.

Simply put, soft power reflects a country’s ability to shape global opinion through culture, diplomacy, business, and international influence.

As Harvard professor Joseph Nye argued back in the early 1990s, the smartest countries don’t choose one or the other – they combine them.

Use hard power when you must (deterrence, stopping aggression) and soft power to build coalitions and reduce the need for force

In short:

  • Hard power can win the battle.

  • Soft power helps win the peace.

  • Smart power wins the long game.

As Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte details in the map below, US still ranks #1 overall, but notes growing challenges from polarization and recent foreign-policy shifts. China is a close #2 and rising fast.

Russia’s hard-power visibility boosted its short-term global attention but hurt its cultural and business appeal.

In today’s tense environment (e.g., Middle East conflicts, great-power competition), nations are rediscovering that pure hard power is expensive and often backfires, while soft power reduces the cost of (but also likelihood of) getting what you want.

The index scores and ranks countries on how positively they are perceived around the world, based on surveys and other perception metrics collected globally.

The data for this map comes from the Brand Finance Global Soft Power Index 2026.

Top Soft Power Nations

The United States ranks #1 in the 2026 Global Soft Power Index with a score of 74.9, just 1.4 points ahead of China in second place.

Rank Country Soft Power Index (2026)
1 🇺🇸 United States 74.9
2 🇨🇳 China 73.5
3 🇯🇵 Japan 70.6
4 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 69.2
5 🇩🇪 Germany 67.7
6 🇫🇷 France 65.8
7 🇨🇭 Switzerland 63.2
8 🇨🇦 Canada 63.2
9 🇮🇹 Italy 61.6
10 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 59.4
11 🇰🇷 South Korea 59.2
12 🇪🇸 Spain 58.9
13 🇸🇪 Sweden 58.8
14 🇷🇺 Russia 58.7
15 🇳🇱 Netherlands 57.8
16 🇦🇺 Australia 57.5
17 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 55.9
18 🇩🇰 Denmark 55.6
19 🇳🇴 Norway 55.4
20 🇶🇦 Qatar 54.9
21 🇸🇬 Singapore 54.5
22 🇧🇪 Belgium 54.5
23 🇫🇮 Finland 53.5
24 🇦🇹 Austria 53.3
25 🇹🇷 Türkiye 52.4
26 🇳🇿 New Zealand 51.6
27 🇵🇹 Portugal 50.4
28 🇮🇪 Ireland 49.6
29 🇧🇷 Brazil 49.2
30 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 49.1
31 🇵🇱 Poland 48.9
32 🇮🇳 India 48.0
33 🇬🇷 Greece 46.7
34 🇮🇸 Iceland 45.9
35 🇲🇾 Malaysia 45.8
36 🇲🇨 Monaco 45.5
37 🇦🇷 Argentina 45.2
38 🇹🇭 Thailand 45.0
39 🇮🇱 Israel 44.8
40 🇪🇬 Egypt 44.8
41 🇰🇼 Kuwait 44.8
42 🇲🇽 Mexico 44.3
43 🇿🇦 South Africa 44.2
44 🇨🇿 Czechia 43.6
45 🇮🇩 Indonesia 42.0
46 🇭🇷 Croatia 41.6
47 🇺🇦 Ukraine 41.4
48 🇭🇺 Hungary 41.3
49 🇧🇭 Bahrain 40.8
50 🇲🇦 Morocco 40.6
51 🇴🇲 Oman 40.5
52 🇻🇳 Vietnam 40.4
53 🇷🇴 Romania 40.3
54 🇵🇭 Philippines 40.0
55 🇸🇰 Slovakia 39.7
56 🇨🇱 Chile 39.4
57 🇸🇮 Slovenia 39.4
58 🇮🇷 Iran 39.3
59 🇲🇻 Maldives 39.2
60 🇨🇾 Cyprus 39.0
61 🇬🇪 Georgia 39.0
62 🇯🇴 Jordan 38.9
63 🇰🇵 North Korea 38.9
64 🇺🇾 Uruguay 38.7
65 🇵🇦 Panama 38.6
66 🇨🇴 Colombia 38.3
67 🇪🇪 Estonia 38.1
68 🇧🇬 Bulgaria 38.0
69 🇲🇹 Malta 37.4
70 🇱🇻 Latvia 37.4
71 🇳🇬 Nigeria 37.4
72 🇷🇸 Serbia 37.3
73 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 37.1
74 🇩🇿 Algeria 36.8
75 🇹🇳 Tunisia 36.7
76 🇸🇻 El Salvador 36.6
77 🇵🇪 Peru 36.6
78 🇵🇾 Paraguay 36.4
79 🇱🇹 Lithuania 36.4
80 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 36.3
81 🇧🇾 Belarus 36.0
82 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 35.9
83 🇨🇺 Cuba 35.8
84 🇵🇰 Pakistan 35.7
85 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan 35.4
86 🇧🇸 Bahamas 35.4
87 🇯🇲 Jamaica 35.1
88 🇰🇪 Kenya 35.0
89 🇱🇧 Lebanon 35.0
90 🇦🇲 Armenia 34.9
91 🇱🇮 Liechtenstein 34.6
92 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 34.5
93 🇪🇨 Ecuador 34.4
94 🇹🇿 Tanzania 34.3
95 🇬🇭 Ghana 34.1
96 🇲🇺 Mauritius 34.1
97 🇻🇪 Venezuela 34.0
98 🇮🇶 Iraq 33.9
99 🇳🇵 Nepal 33.8
100 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 33.8
101 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 33.7
102 🇦🇱 Albania 33.7
103 🇧🇴 Bolivia 33.6
104 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 33.3
105 🇲🇳 Mongolia 33.2
106 🇸🇳 Senegal 33.1
107 🇲🇬 Madagascar 33.0
108 🇨🇲 Cameroon 32.9
109 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina 32.9
110 🇪🇹 Ethiopia 32.8
111 🇲🇪 Montenegro 32.6
112 🇨🇫 Central African Republic 32.4
113 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of Congo 32.3
114 🇿🇲 Zambia 32.1
115 🇰🇭 Cambodia 32.1
116 🇦🇴 Angola 32.0
117 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe 31.9
118 🇺🇬 Uganda 31.9
119 🇧🇹 Bhutan 31.8
120 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam 31.8
121 🇾🇪 Yemen 31.7
122 🇷🇼 Rwanda 31.7
123 🇲🇱 Mali 31.6
124 🇳🇦 Namibia 31.5
125 🇸🇾 Syria 31.2
126 🇬🇹 Guatemala 31.1
127 🇱🇾 Libya 31.1
128 🇲🇩 Moldova 31.0
129 🇹🇯 Tajikistan 31.0
130 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 30.9
131 🇭🇳 Honduras 30.8
132 🇸🇲 San Marino 30.8
133 🇫🇯 Fiji 30.7
134 🇱🇷 Liberia 30.4
135 🇦🇩 Andorra 30.4
136 🇩🇲 Dominica 30.3
137 🇸🇩 Sudan 30.2
138 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan 30.2
139 🇨🇬 Congo 30.1
140 🇲🇿 Mozambique 29.9
141 🇳🇪 Niger 29.9
142 🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan 29.8
143 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso 29.7
144 🇬🇳 Guinea 29.7
145 🇧🇧 Barbados 29.7
146 🇸🇸 South Sudan 28.8
147 🇧🇼 Botswana 28.8
148 🇱🇦 Laos 28.8
149 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea 28.8
150 🇸🇨 Seychelles 28.7
151 🇦🇫 Afghanistan 28.3
152 🇬🇲 Gambia 28.3
153 🇳🇮 Nicaragua 27.8
154 🇲🇲 Myanmar 27.8
155 🇲🇼 Malawi 27.7
156 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 27.7
157 🇨🇻 Cape Verde 27.6
158 🇲🇷 Mauritania 27.3
159 🇸🇿 Eswatini 27.2
160 🇬🇾 Guyana 27.1
161 🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago 27.0
162 🇧🇯 Benin 26.7
163 🇧🇮 Burundi 26.7
164 🇹🇬 Togo 26.7
165 🇹🇩 Chad 26.3
166 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands 26.2
167 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau 26.1
168 🇧🇿 Belize 26.1
169 🇬🇦 Gabon 25.9
170 🇭🇹 Haiti 25.9
171 🇬🇩 Grenada 25.6
172 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 25.3
173 🇰🇲 Comoros 25.2
174 🇼🇸 Samoa 25.1
175 🇸🇹 Sao Tome and Principe 25.0
176 🇦🇬 Antigua & Barbuda 24.8
177 🇸🇴 Somalia 24.6
178 🇱🇨 Saint Lucia 24.5
179 🇪🇷 Eritrea 24.1
180 🇩🇯 Djibouti 24.1
181 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands 24.0
182 🇸🇷 Suriname 23.8
183 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste 23.6
184 🇵🇼 Palau 23.6
185 🇱🇸 Lesotho 23.4
186 🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 22.9
187 🇹🇴 Tonga 22.7
188 🇫🇲 Micronesia 22.3
189 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts & Nevis 21.5
190 🇹🇻 Tuvalu 21.5
191 🇻🇺 Vanuatu 21.4
192 🇳🇷 Nauru 20.7
193 🇰🇮 Kiribati 19.7

The United States’ lead reflects deep global familiarity and influence across entertainment, technology, education, and international leadership.

Strong Performers Across Regions

Western European countries like the United Kingdom (69.2), Germany (67.7), and France (65.8) remain influential, though their scores have seen modest declines in recent years. Countries like Switzerland (63.2) and Canada (63.2) also score highly, reflecting strong reputations for stability, quality of life, and governance.

Diverse Global Landscape

Beyond the top tier, the index reveals a wide range of soft power performance.

Middle-ranking countries like India (48.0) and Brazil (49.2) reflect substantial cultural and regional influence, while smaller states and emerging markets show varied scores further down the list.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapped: The World’s Countries by Political System on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 02:45

Germany’s Corporate Tax Collapse Signals Economic Crisis

Germany’s Corporate Tax Collapse Signals Economic Crisis

By Thomas Kolbe

The ten-minute applause of delegates at the CDU party congress still echoed when the Federal Ministry of Finance spoiled the festive mood in Stuttgart. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s (SPD) department reported a nationwide collapse of corporate tax revenue by 79 percent in January 2026 compared to last year.

At the same time, revenue from assessed income tax fell by 14.2 percent, while wage tax revenue rose by 9.1 percent.

VAT revenue grew by two percent — a reflection of persistent inflationary tendencies in the country, to which the state itself contributes significantly through its taxation policies. While price increases may be slowed by continued economic weakness, cumulative inflation continues to weigh on consumers even if the annual rate declines. Inflation is always good for the state, which is why it persists.

Corporate tax burdens corporate profits at 15 percent plus a solidarity surcharge. Last year, revenue totaled roughly €40 billion, less than one percent of GDP. Even in 2025, revenue had fallen six percent, showing a long-term negative trend.

Its temporary collapse in January will likely have no immediate fiscal consequences. Corporate tax revenue is split — 50 percent to the federal government, 42 percent to the states, and eight percent to municipalities, which appear at least partially shielded at this tax level.

However, municipalities already suffered a fiscal blow last year, especially in the centers of the industrial crisis. Cities such as Wolfsburg and Stuttgart saw sharp declines in their key tax base, the trade tax.

It is undeniable: the situation is becoming serious, and the damage from political mismanagement is now visible. For the first time, fiscal effects appear in a country where policy had long relied on ever-growing tax revenues, postponing social issues with generous spending.

January’s alarming figures allow a troubling diagnosis: the companies that generate corporate tax revenue are largely from manufacturing — the classic industrial sectors of Germany’s automotive and chemical industries. Here, in what was once the pulsing heart of the German economy — source of much of the nation’s value creation — there must have been a first economic infarction last year.

The tax revenue decline cannot be explained otherwise. Last year was suspiciously quiet amid 24,000 corporate insolvencies, hundreds of thousands of lost industrial jobs, and ongoing capital flight from Germany’s regulatory and energy nightmare toward better locations.

The government’s response to this self-inflicted problem is to expand state activity, spinning the intervention spiral faster with ever-new debt to stabilize an industry that largely no longer exists.

Friedrich Merz acted knowingly last year when he secured a special fund with credit for coming years to temporarily stabilize the collapsing economic model. The hour was understood.

Yet now, despite billions flowing into the defense sector and green transformation projects, tax revenue still collapses — highlighting the dramatic state of the private sector. An economy that is largely unviable without perpetual subsidies has now become a problem for politics itself.

No matter how high the federal government’s economic straw fire burns, the Ministry of Finance’s numbers speak clearly. Germany’s economy, after years of restructuring under green transformation and the energy crisis, has suffered such heavy damage that it is now visible at the state level — confirming what practical experience has warned for years. The shift toward a green socialism has gone too far, productive forces are overextended, bureaucracy and the ever-expanding welfare state overstretched.

Germany faces difficult years ahead. It must negotiate how to proceed amid ever-scarcer public funds. The state quota now exceeds 50 percent and continues to rise under federal policy. The bureaucracy and welfare system expand five to six percent annually, demanding ever-greater contributions from society, further weakening productive forces — the poverty spiral accelerates.

A recalibration of the welfare state to match economic realities will soon be unavoidable. Until then, the illusion of prosperity is kept alive by credit.

What is to be expected now? The state will increasingly draw on citizens’ resources to close the growing budget gaps. The corporate tax collapse was likely no anomaly, and it will become ever more expensive to use sectors like defense to mask the collapse of German industry and protect the labor market.

Debates over raising inheritance tax, reintroducing wealth tax, and potential special levies on the rich last year were preparatory. Now, it is serious.

The dead-end German politics has led this country down is brittle. Beneath it yawns an abyss, now revealed in its full depth in Ministry of Finance numbers.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/04/2026 – 02:00

The Fix Is In To Defeat Alberta Independence

The Fix Is In To Defeat Alberta Independence

Authored by Bruce Pardy via The Brownstone Institute,

Last week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced a referendum for October 19. It will ask Albertans a slate of policy and constitutional questions. Independence, she said the next day, will be added to the ballot if the requisite number of signatures is met in the petition drive, which is likely.

Albertans will get their chance to say if they want to leave Canada.

But Canadian federalists can relax. The Alberta premier is one of them.

The referendum is the fix to defeat Alberta independence.

It will undermine the separatist cause and split the independence vote. 

Smith’s referendum will ask whether the province should exercise more control over immigration, social programs, and voter identification. And whether Alberta should pursue constitutional amendments. Give provinces the power to appoint judges to superior courts? Abolish the unelected Senate? Grant provinces the right to opt out of federal programs in areas of provincial jurisdiction without losing federal funding? Give provincial laws priority over federal ones when they conflict? 

These referendum questions lead nowhere. Alberta already has constitutional authority over the policy questions. It could exercise more control in these areas tomorrow if it wanted. There is no realistic prospect of amending the Canadian constitution on controversial matters. Smith and her advisors must know that. 

Smith has repeatedly said that her mandate is a sovereign Alberta inside a united Canada. But many of her fellow Albertans are fed up. They perceive that their province has long received a raw deal in Confederation. They tire of Ottawa throwing obstacles in the way of their primary industries. They resent having their wealth taxed and sent elsewhere around the country. A growing number of Albertans are determined to leave Canada. Recent polls peg it at about one in three

But even among restless Albertans, there’s a moderate middle. They are unhappy with the status quo but have not yet resolved to ditch the country. Smith’s referendum will give them a third way. Choose constitutional and policy reforms to create a fairer deal. 

It’s a chimera, of course.

In 2021, 62 percent of Albertans voted in favor of removing equalization from the constitution. “Equalization” means that the federal government will collect more taxes from wealthy provinces and spend it on poorer ones. Alberta is Canada’s wealthiest province per capita, and the main source of equalization funds. Its equalization referendum produced no change. The rest of the country ignored it. Alberta will not get more constitutional powers, whatever the voters say about Smith’s referendum questions. No constitutional amendments are coming. But many voters will not realize that when they mark their ballots. 

Smith’s referendum will undermine the prospect for independence in another way too. An independence referendum requires a “clear question.” That’s what the Supreme Court of Canada said in its 1998 reference case about Quebec. It makes sense. Voters should understand, beyond a shadow of doubt, what they are voting on and what is at stake. But the Court did not say exactly what a “clear question” consists of. 

The proposed independence question is clear. “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” But a clear question becomes muddy when combined with other questions. If voters support independence but also other constitutional changes, what do they mean? Which should be pursued first? Which is the last resort? What if voters support independence but also support Alberta having the right to opt out of federal programs while retaining federal funding? Both of those things cannot happen. One requires that Alberta be a province, and the other requires that it not be. Any referendum result that requires interpretation is not clear.

The federal Clarity Act legislatures the requirement for a clear question, but it does not give specific criteria either. Nor does it specifically refer to the matter of multiple questions on the ballot. But it does say a question that “envisages other possibilities in addition to the secession of the province” is not clear. And that the House of Commons can consider “any other matters or circumstances it considers to be relevant.” If I was the Canadian government, I would argue that multiple questions create confusion. The Alberta government could ask one clear question. Instead, the Smith referendum will allow Ottawa to reject the legitimacy of the vote.

Some separatists say that Alberta doesn’t need Ottawa to approve its departure. Recognition by the United States and other countries would be enough. But even the United States will not recognize Alberta as independent unless Alberta declares itself to be. The Alberta government, having angled to defeat separation, is not likely to do that, even if voters approve the independence question on the ballot.

Many separatist Albertans insist that Smith is secretly one of them. Or at least that she will not stand in the way. But she could easily have held a referendum on independence at any time. She chose the other questions for the Oct 19 referendum. She could easily have chosen the independence question instead. She preferred to make her own citizens jump through hoops of petitions and signatures to get it on the ballot. 

Once the referendum is held, the independence cause will be done for the foreseeable future. Some Alberta separatists might try to see a silver lining. After the country declines to give Alberta a better deal, they might say that the cause will be all the stronger. But by then the US will have elected a new president. Support from the Trump administration, real or imagined, has been a source of hope. And in any event, future demographics in Alberta may no longer offer the same opportunity. 

Smith’s referendum, and her promise to include the independence question on the ballot, might appear to open the door for Alberta’s departure from Canada. Instead, it is more likely to slam the door shut. On Alberta’s present path, the Canadian constitutional status quo will continue.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2026 – 23:25

Jeffrey Sachs: ‘Trump Is An Utter Disgrace To Our Nation – He Lied To Us’

Jeffrey Sachs: ‘Trump Is An Utter Disgrace To Our Nation – He Lied To Us’

Columbia University economics professor Jeffrey D. Sachs appeared on Judge Napolitano’s ‘Judging Freedom’ podcast Monday, where he railed against the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the ‘CIA-led security state,’ calling President Donald Trump a ‘disgrace to our nation’ because ‘he lied to us.’

Watch:

Sachs, a longtime critic of U.S. foreign policy, described the recent escalation as the continuation of a decades-old strategy he linked to Israeli and U.S. intelligence objectives dating back to 1996.

This is a long-term plan. This is a Mossad CIA plan for American control of the Middle East and Israeli military hegemony in the Middle East that has been underway since 1996,” Sachs said. “This is madness. This is murderous delusion.”

The professor pointed to a series of U.S.-backed or U.S.-involved conflicts across the region, from Libya and Sudan to Somalia and the ongoing crisis in Gaza, as evidence of a consistent pattern aimed ultimately at confronting Iran.

It has involved wars across the Middle East. It has left rivers of blood from Libya to Sudan, Somalia, the genocide in Gaza,” he said, adding that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal since the mid-1990s has been “the destruction of Iran.”

Sachs reserved some of his strongest language for Trump, whom he said reversed course on key foreign-policy pledges after taking office.

Trump… is an utter disgrace to our nation. Utter disgrace. He lied to us. Every word about America first… And he did exactly the opposite of what he said,” Sachs stated.

The economist also criticized Washington’s approach to diplomacy more broadly, arguing that the United States has abandoned genuine negotiation in favor of coercive tactics.

“The United States does not negotiate. It cheats… Now they kill you because if you negotiate, it means you’re weak,” he said.

On the domestic front, Sachs connected the country’s infrastructure challenges to the enormous costs of overseas military engagements.

“Why do the roads not work and the bridges not work in the United States?… It’s because we spend trillions of dollars in war,” he said. “China just completed its 50,000th kilometer of fast rail because China doesn’t go to war.”

Sachs concluded by expressing deep skepticism about the current state of American governance.

“We’re in the hands of gangsters. We’re not in the hands of a constitutional system,” he said, noting that only a handful of lawmakers – citing Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) as one example – have pushed back.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 03/03/2026 – 23:00

Israel Claims to Strike Iranian Nuclear Weapons Lab

Israel Claims to Strike Iranian Nuclear Weapons Lab

Iran’s nuclear complexes are seeing renewed attacks for both new buildings constructed since the 12-Day War, as well as long-existing infrastructure previously left alone. From what can be seen in recent satellite imagery, the U.S. and Israel are quickly finishing what they started last year.  

The IDF announced it has struck a covert underground compound outside Tehran where regime scientists were quietly designing key components for a nuclear bomb.

The target, “Min-Zadai”, was the new facility for SPND scientists after last year’s Operation Rising Lion turned their old facilities into craters.

SPND (Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research) is the Iranian Ministry of Defense’s R&D arm. It’s the successor to the AMAD Project, handling the weaponization side of nuclear power. The AMAD Project (also known as the AMAD Plan) was Iran’s highly secretive, structured nuclear weapons development program launched in the late 1990s and run directly by the Ministry of Defense. It was led by Mohsen Fakhrizadeh until its reported halt in late 2003 under international pressure.

The Institute for Science and International Security (“The Good ISIS”) used satellite imagery and a geolocated strike video to confirm a large engineering laboratory building just north of the Mojdeh site was destroyed. A brand-new building that was externally finished only in early 2025. ISIS states the complex, never visited by IAEA inspectors, has long housed multiple SPND teams quietly advancing nuclear-weapons-related R&D near Malek Ashtar University. The targeted structure was assessed as still active, which is exactly why Israel chose it.

There’s no commentary provided by the IAEA yet, and based on their previous lack of discussion on the site, there likely won’t be any assessment of the area by the UN organization. Without their involvement, it’ll be difficult to assess if any nuclear material was destroyed in the strike. All things considered, the hazardous impact is localized if there was material on site, and is more likely to be a chemical hazard than a radiological hazard. 
 

UnoMasReactor
Tue, 03/03/2026 – 22:32