Micro-Cap ‘War Unicorn’ Merlin Soars After Advancing AI Pilot For C-130 Military Plane
Aerospace and defense technology firm Merlin jumped in premarket trading after announcing that its AI-powered autonomous flight software for the C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane, developed with U.S. Special Operations Command, is moving toward formal testing.
Merlin wrote in a press release earlier that its AI-powered autonomous flight software has “successfully completed” the critical design review for the C-130J, adding the “milestone positions the program to enter a structured formal test campaign, including aircraft-level testing, reflecting a disciplined systems engineering progression from design through verification.”
The Merlin AI Pilot will automate flight operations for the C-130J from takeoff to touchdown and is framed as an “operating system” for autonomous aviation.
Merlin has completed the Critical Design Review for its C-130J autonomy program with @USSOCOM. CDR is the milestone where our government customer reviews the detailed design of the system and accepts it is mature enough to move toward the aircraft. We cleared it.
The C-130 is the workhorse cargo plane of the U.S. military. The upgraded version, by slapping a “J” on the end, includes:
Newer turboprop engines
Six-blade composite propellers
Digital cockpit and avionics
Reduced crew requirements
Better range, climb, speed, and fuel efficiency than older C-130s
Shares of the micro-cap defense company jumped 28% in premarket trading.
Merlin also pointed out that it is “rapidly advancing its AI-powered autonomy stack onboard the C-130J, with potential pathways for expansion across other Department of War or commercial aviation platforms.”
The rise of “war unicorns” has been an important theme this year as the Department of War resets its procurement program toward startups and away from big legacy primes.
Goldman analysts also recognize the rise of defense startups and sat down with Palmer Luckey’s Anduril earlier this week. Read the note here.
ISS Astronauts Told To Prepare For Possible Evacuation As Air Leak Worsens
NASA senior adviser and press secretary Bethany Stevens wrote on X that astronauts aboard the International Space Station have quickly shifted into SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft and are prepared to evacuate if needed, after cracks and leaks in the Zvezda service module transfer tunnel appeared to worsen.
“The Zvezda service module transfer tunnel, known as PrK, has suffered from cracks and leaks for some time, and has been mitigated by Roscosmos as much as possible to date. The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely,” Stevens said.
According to NASA, the Zvezda service module is 43 feet long and contains living quarters, life support systems, communications systems, electrical power distribution systems, data processing systems, flight control systems, and propulsion systems.
The Zvezda service module transfer tunnel, known as PrK, has suffered from cracks and leaks for some time, and has been mitigated by Roscosmos as much as possible to date. The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely. NASA and Roscosmos have been working…
Stevens continued, “The cracks have always been a concern that NASA watches very closely. NASA and Roscosmos have been working to determine the root cause of the cracks, and Roscosmos manages the issue through operational mitigation measures and periodic partial-repair efforts.”
Out of caution, NASA ordered all four SpaceX Crew-12 members, along with NASA astronaut Chris Williams, to be on high alert inside Dragon during the repair.
NASA said it continues to work with Roscosmos and other station partners toward a more permanent fix for the long-running issue.
Reuters cited a senior NASA official who said the air leak has been monitored over the last few months but significantly worsened earlier this week, increasing from a loss of one pound of air per day to two pounds per day.
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The Atomic Crab
The Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high yesterday, surging 1.73% to close at 51,562. The S&P500 posted more modest gains while the NASDAQ closed slightly lower as investors rotated out of some growth-oriented tech names and back towards healthcare and financials with more of a value or cyclical flavor.
Treasuries traded in a narrow range to close with yields little changed, while European sovereigns mostly saw modest declines in yields with the slightest hint of bull steepening evident in some curves. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index was down slightly but is inching higher again in early trade this morning.
Oil markets continue to be a point of focus. Front-month Brent futures closed 2.84% lower yesterday as markets remain of a Pollyanna state of mind over the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Dated Brent went the other way to post a (very) small gain yesterday after a 3.61% lift on Wednesday. The Singapore gasoil for spot delivery index was down 4.45% to $136.57/bbl.
Scuttlebutt over the status of US-Iran peace talks continued to dominate headlines yesterday. Following Donald Trump’s announcement of a Israel/Lebanon ceasefire that was contingent on Hezbollah ceasing its attacks on Israel we had confirmation this morning that Hezbollah has no intention of halting strikes. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem made a statement on Thursday saying that “as long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue” and calling the negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel “absurd, humiliating and shameful.”
For Israel’s part, defence minister Katz has said that Israeli attacks in Southern Lebanon will continue and that the IDF will maintain “freedom of action” including in Beirut – which has been a red line for the Americans. Benjamin Netanyahu has recently faced criticism at home for being seen to be too compliant with American demands over strikes in Lebanon. Netanyahu faces an election in October, which polling suggests he may lose. Peace on all fronts was an Iranian condition precedent for reopening Hormuz and commencing the 60-day nuclear talks, but it seems that neither belligerent is interested.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s language on the Iran peace talks has gone from “deal imminent”, to “a deal soon, maybe” to “actually, we really don’t need a deal”. Trump showed signs of crabwalking away from a key demand that Iran hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium by saying that he does not need a deal with Iran to secure the uranium, but that there was no reason to send US troops into Iran to do so because the uranium is “entombed”.
Regular readers will recall that RaboResearch updated our Iran war baseline forecast two weeks ago to say that we didn’t think a meaningful deal would stick in the short term, and that the Strait of Hormuz would consequently remain functionally closed until September at least. The incompatibility of the two parties’ nuclear demands was a key factor in this judgement, so it is significant that Trump is now showing hints of softening his position on this point. However, capitulation on the highly enriched uranium or the limits of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program shifts the needle back towards US strategic defeat, with potentially grave consequences for all who have prospered under 80-years of Pax Americana.
We noted here yesterday that Bloomberg had reported that the IAEA had published a restricted document arguing that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher than it was prior to the war. Subsequently, Bloomberg has reported that Iran has permitted IAEA monitors to inspect its Bushehr nuclear plant within the last week, but that Iran has steadfastly refused to comply with requests to verify the condition and location of its highly enriched uranium.
Needless to say, while the US-Iran stalemate continues global oil and oil products stocks continue to run down towards dangerously low levels. Vitol board member Tom Baker recently said that the oil trader estimated global demand destruction at about 4 million barrels a day, mostly from emerging Asia and Africa. China alone has reportedly reduced daily imports by close to 4 million barrels, while strategic reserve releases coordinated by the IEA have also been running close to 4 million barrels a day.
It’s not entirely clear whether or not there is some double counting in the Vitol estimates and China import drop-off, but the back of the napkin calculation gets us somewhere close to the ~12mbbl/day estimated supply loss from the Hormuz closure, and goes some way toward explaining why oil prices have remained remarkably low. Nevertheless, this remains a stocks to flows problem, and the cracks cannot be papered over indefinitely without supply tightness also being felt materially in developed markets.
While China’s reduction in oil imports helps planet earth rebalance energy flows, movements are afoot in Australia to counter Chinese monopsony power over the iron ore trade. China recently formed the state-owned China Mineral Resources Group to coordinate purchases of iron ore cargoes for China’s steel industry and exert market power to ensure that suppliers are paid in CNY, rather than USD. Australian firms supply more than 50% of global iron ore, but those firms have seen their market power eroded by alternative supply coming online in west Africa and an inability to coordinate to counter Chinese market power.
The Australian Financial Review this morning reports overtures from iron ore majors to the Australian government to counter monopsony buying power and give producers more say over how much they are paid and in which currency. Could we see state-backed single desk iron ore marketing in the land down under? Australia’s second-closest neighbour Indonesia recently did just that for coal, palm oil and ferroalloys, and has the world’s largest reserves of nickel – a critical input for Chinese stainless steel and EV battery production.
Elsewhere, there are again renewed hopes for peace prospects in Ukraine as Kyiv’s long-range drone strikes continue to cause havoc deep inside Russia. Vladimir Putin’s St Petersburg International Economic Forum (a kind of Davos for dictators) was recently interrupted by Ukrainian drone strikes on nearby Russian oil infrastructure – prompting Putin to vow that Russia will bolster its defenses against Ukrainian air attacks.
At the same time, Russia’s spring/summer offensive appears to have stalled and news outlets are reporting that Putin is signalling openness to a compromise on Ukraine in line with discussions held with President Trump in Alaska. Putin says that Ukraine needs to accept those compromises, but might there be some wiggle room for Ukraine to extract a better deal given the changed battlefield calculus? For his part, Zelenskyy is pushing for face-to-face talks with Putin to reach peace terms, but Putin says that he will only meet once terms have already been agreed, and that he will only meet in a neutral third-party country, which rules out EU member states in his view.
Iran Military Fires “Warning Missiles” At US Destroyers In Gulf of Oman
AFP is reporting that Iranian military forces fired “warning missiles” at two U.S. Navy destroyers transiting the Gulf of Oman, citing Iranian state media.
“In continuation of operations to counter maritime misconduct and harassment, as well as the hijacking of commercial vessels and oil tankers by the terrorist naval forces of the United States, following the firing of warning missiles, the hostile destroyers DDG-103 and DDG-8 have left the Gulf of Oman towards the Indian Ocean,” Iranian military forces wrote in a statement published by state news agency IRNA.
Meanwhile…
US DENIES REPORT IRAN ATTACKED OR FIRED AT US NAVAL SHIPS
🚫 CLAIM: Iran claims it fired warning shots at U.S. warships in the Gulf of Oman, forcing American vessels to “retreat” toward the Indian Ocean. FALSE.
✅TRUTH: Iranian forces did NOT attack or fire at U.S. Navy warships. Doing so would be a gross violation of the ceasefire.… pic.twitter.com/PdfC1EMZTP
Iran’s army fired warning shots using Qadir missiles and drones at two US Navy destroyers (DDG-103 and DDG-87) in the Sea of Oman on Friday, forcing them to retreat to the northern Indian Ocean, according to Iranian military statements
Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait and Bahrain on Wednesday, killing one person and injuring dozens at Kuwait’s main airport, after the US struck an oil tanker headed to Iran
Peace Talks
The US and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal this week, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying no tangible progress has been achieved
President Trump said ceasefire talks are in the ‘final’ stages despite the stalled negotiations
Iran’s Foreign Minister dismissed the idea of Supreme Leader meeting Trump after the US president expressed openness to such a meeting
U.S. Congressional Opposition
The Republican-led House voted 215-208 on Wednesday to halt the US war with Iran, breaking with President Trump
Trump called the House vote against the Iran war ‘meaningless’ and ‘unpatriotic’ in a Truth Social post
Regional Impact
Lebanon’s Prime Minister told Iran to stop treating the country as a ‘bargaining chip’ on Friday
Hezbollah rejected a US-brokered truce proposal in Lebanon, though attacks on northern Israel have eased
The US said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah stopping attacks and evacuating operatives from southern Lebanon
Nuclear
Iran permitted UN atomic watchdog monitors to visit its Bushehr nuclear power plant this week while stonewalling inspectors’ demands to verify its enriched uranium stockpile.
Iran FM Warns American Bases Are Legitimate Targets, Cites ‘No Tangible Progress’ In Talks
At a moment it’s become more than clear that the US and Iran are not anywhere closer to the negotiating table, and after they’ve shown little progress after a week of clashes – as one Friday morning Bloomberg headline reads, Tehran has again putting US bases in the region on notice, while admitting“no tangible progress” in negotiations on ending the conflict.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in fresh remarks has said that “standing against the world’s greatest power, equipped with nuclear weapons, for 40 days is no joke,” and that “the world has realized the true power of the Iranian nation.”
Araghchi also again issued a direct warning to regional Gulf states: “We warned regional states that US bases used for any aggression against Iran are legitimate targets” – he was quoted Friday by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) as saying.
However, the Iranian foreign minister also cautioned that there is a way forward, stressing that despite conflict, “We are committed to fostering sustainable, constructive ties with Saudi Arabia.”
The war is fast approaching the 100-day milestone, which comes Sunday, since Trump first initiated his Operation Epic Fury. He had in the opening ‘assured’ the American public of only a short conflict lasting but a few days or weeks.
Iran’s supreme leader too has been signaling defiance while apparently in hiding, saying that the US and Israel had been dealt a “decisive blow”
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s message was read out by a prayer leader at a ceremony marking the anniversary of the death of the Islamic republic’s founder on Thursday:
In his message, Khamenei said his country’s enemies, after “facing a decisive blow,” were now “experiencing a deeply meaningful and profound humiliation.”
He went on to accuse them of seeking to “plant the seeds of doubt, despair, fear, mistrust and division” among the public, calling for unity to “neutralize their sinister plot.”
Tehran is still seeking to integrate the Lebanon situation into a broader US-Iran peace deal. But in Lebanon itself, sporadic fighting has raged despite declaration of a ceasefire – of which Hezbollah has declared itself not part of.
On Friday, “The Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee on Friday warned residents of six towns and villages including south Lebanon’s Sarafand, a town on the coastal road between Tyre and Sidon, to immediately evacuate,” according to CBS.
More reports of mystery explosions in Strait of Hormuz, off Oman…
🇴🇲 New: Oman has suspended oil loading operations at the Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion near its offshore berths, according to Reuters.
Two sources familiar with the matter said the blast, which occurred between two single-buoy moorings, was believed to have been… pic.twitter.com/N6O5nZoqWF
“Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported mass displacement from the three villages named in the warning, and it subsequently reported a strike on one of the villages, Arqoun,” the report continues.
And Al Jazeera also reports Friday that “Israel’s deadly strikes continue across Lebanon, killing at least six today, despite the announcement of a new US-brokered ceasefire agreed between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington, DC.”
The public is increasingly pessimistic that a ceasefire can be achieved anytime soon, even as Trump has seemed to soften on the issue of retrieving highly enriched uranium: US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
The price of ZEC fell on Thursday after further details were disclosed of a critical counterfeiting vulnerability in Zcash’s Orchard pool that could theoretically allow a bad actor to mint an unlimited amount of ZEC.
According to a post on X, security engineer Taylor Hornby, who was engaged by Shielded Labs, discovered the bug on May 29 and disclosed it to the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which deployed an emergency response to fix the vulnerability with a hard fork activated on June 3.
However, there are new concerns about the extent to which the vulnerability, which has existed since May 2022, has been used, leading Zcash to fall more than 30% over the past 24 hours to $410 at the time of writing. Its market capitalization has shrunk by more than $3 billion.
However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said on Friday it is unlikely that ZEC has been illegally minted this way, though he acknowledged “it cannot be formally cryptographically proved impossible.”
“Sadly, due to the Orchard Pool exploit, I had to dump our entire ZEC bag,” he said.
“The Holy Trinity is dead,” he added, referring to Zcash and the two other tokens he sold this week, Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Near Protocol (NEAR).
ZEC crashes almost 50% in 24 hours after two months of solid gains.
Claude assists in bug discovery
Taylor used Claude Opus 4.8, which was released on May 28, a day before the discovery, to assist in a highly targeted review of the Orchard circuit, the cryptographic component underlying Zcash’s Orchard shielded pool.
The critical bug allowed false inputs into an elliptic curve multiplication check, which means the math that is supposed to cryptographically verify transactions could be fooled.
Taylor built and tested a working exploit, which generated unlimited counterfeit ZEC.
“If he had run the same tool on Zcash mainnet it would have generated unlimited, undetectable counterfeit ZEC in his mainnet Zcash wallet,” the security researchers said on Friday.
The primary concern is that there is no cryptographic way to prove whether anyone had previously exploited it before it was patched, due to Orchard’s privacy properties.
However, Shielded Labs was “not overly concerned” because the bug was subtle enough to evade years of expert review, and the discovery was a deliberate, highly skilled effort using cutting-edge tools and AI.
The firm is working with Zcash developers on a proposed network upgrade to allow anyone to verify the integrity of the ZEC supply and to prove the nonexistence of counterfeit tokens in the Orchard pool, they stated.
Not the first counterfeiting vulnerability for Zcash
Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Solana tooling firm Helius, said that almost all privacy protocols have a variant of this same vulnerability.
“This same FUD comes back every five months as new people learn how privacy pools work,” he said.
He explained that it is a theoretical risk in most zero-knowledge privacy protocols from circuit bugs that are hard to exploit or detect.
This is not the first time a similar vulnerability in Zcash has been discovered. In 2018, a counterfeiting vulnerability in the cryptography underlying zk-proofs was discovered by the Electric Coin Company, which remediated it with no losses in 2019.
Latest nonsense targets family courts, custody, and parental rights
Outrage is exploding after New York Democrats rammed through legislation that strips the words “mother” and “father” from key sections of state law and replaces them with cold, clinical inventions: “gestating parent” and “non-gestating parent.”
The bill passed the Assembly months ago and cleared the Senate this week with minimal debate. It now sits on Governor Kathy Hochul’s desk. If she signs it, the changes take effect November 1 and will rewrite references across family court proceedings, domestic relations, child support, custody determinations, and even education statutes. “Paternity” becomes “parentage.” “Putative father” becomes “alleged parent.”
? NOW: Outrage erupts as New York passes legislation to REMOVE the word “mother” and replace it with “gestating parent”
Sponsors Sen. Luis Sepulveda and Assemblywoman Amy Paulin packaged the overhaul as a long-overdue update to parentage laws. The memo claims the new language simply aligns statutes with existing court rulings and accommodates surrogacy arrangements plus same-sex parenting.
In practice, every traditional reference to mothers and fathers in these legal contexts gets replaced. The language is deliberately stripped of sex-based meaning. Motherhood is reduced to a temporary biological process. Fatherhood is defined by its absence from gestation.
Democrats and allied lawyers argue the old terms were outdated the moment same-sex couples and surrogates entered family court in larger numbers. They insist the rewrite creates consistency and avoids confusion in complex modern cases.
Republican and conservative leaders wasted no time labeling the move what it plainly is: ideological overreach dressed up as progress.
State Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar called it “woke culture run amok” and pure one-upmanship that wastes legislative time while the state budget remains stalled.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman was even more direct, charging that Democrats led by Hochul have “declared war on families” by canceling “Mom and Dad.”
State Sen. Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick and U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney both highlighted the grotesque misplacement of priorities. While New Yorkers face crushing taxes, failing schools, and public safety failures, Albany chose to spend its final days neutering the language of motherhood.
Even some rank-and-file Democrats reportedly viewed the bill as unnecessary. Hochul herself claimed she was unfamiliar with it when asked and said she would “take a look.” For the woman who styles herself the state’s “first mom governor,” the dodge was telling.
This latest New York push is not happening in a vacuum. Similar efforts to strip “mother” and “father” from official language have surfaced repeatedly in Democrat strongholds and taxpayer-funded institutions.
In Wisconsin, Democrat Governor Tony Evers tried to insert language into the state budget bill that would replace “mother” with “inseminated person” and “biological father” with “natural parent” in contexts involving paternity disputes and artificial insemination.
Other proposed swaps erased “woman,” “female,” “wife,” and “husband” entirely. Critics correctly described it as beyond parody and a direct insult to every actual mother in the state.
This turgid trend is far from limited to the US. A government-funded Scottish charity called Scotland’s International Development Alliance produced an official “inclusive language guide” that explicitly branded the words “mother” and “father” as “oppressive.”
The guide instructed users to replace them with neutral terms like “parent” or “guardian” and framed traditional family language as something that reinforces unwanted power structures. Taxpayer money supported the entire project.
New York’s “gestating parent” and “non-gestating parent” formulation follows the identical script. What began as fringe suggestions in activist guides and budget amendments has now advanced to actual state law in one of America’s largest blue states.
This is coordinated ideological creep. Each step tests how much biological reality the public will accept being rewritten out of existence.
Women who carry and birth children will still be mothers in every meaningful sense. The law cannot change that biological fact. What the law can do is remove any formal recognition of that reality in the places where recognition matters most: custody disputes, parental rights, and official records.
Surrogacy and same-sex parenting arrangements can be accommodated with precise legal definitions without requiring the rest of society to pretend motherhood is a neutral administrative function. The bill does not solve a genuine legal problem. It manufactures one to satisfy a narrow ideological demand.
This is the same mindset that insists men can become women, that sex is assigned rather than observed, and that dissent from any of it constitutes bigotry. It is the systematic replacement of observable truth with preferred fiction.
New York Democrats are not leading on this issue. They are following the same script playing out in other blue strongholds: rewrite language, capture institutions, then punish anyone who refuses to comply. The speed and lack of serious debate around this bill show how normalized the project has become inside the party.
Governor Hochul still has time to veto this bill. If she signs it, she will own the decision to erase “mother” and “father” from New York law. Either way, the voters who actually care about protecting women, children, and the English language now have a clear marker of which party treats biological reality as optional.
US Jobs Soar By 172K In May, Smashing Estimates In 4 Sigma Beat; Unemployment Rate Remains At 4.3%
With Wall Street expecting a strong – not great – number, and a modest decline from April’s 115K, moments ago the BLS reported a shocker: in May the US added 172K jobs…
… not only a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate of 88K, but also above the highest estimate of 125K.
In a noteable change from previous months’ downware revisions, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 93,000 higher than previously reported.
Turning to the Household survey, unlike previous months, we saw the number of employed people rise by 149K from 162.622K to 162.771K…
… with both the Household and Establishment survey rising for the first time in months.
The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, in line with expectations. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates showed little or no change in May for adult men (4.0%), adult women (3.8%), teenagers (14.7% ), and people who are White (3.8%), Black (6.6%), Asian (3.8%), or Hispanic (5.0%).
The labor force participation rate held at 61.8% in May, and the employment-population ratio changed little at 59.2 percent. These measures showed little change over the year, after accounting for annual population control adjustments.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents or 0.3%, in line with estimates. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.4%, also in line with estimates. In May, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.31
Some more details from the report:
The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.2 million in May, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 2.0 million but is up by 524,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 27.5 percent of all unemployed people in May.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in May. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
In May, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.2 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in May. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 486,000 in May, essentially unchanged from the previous month.
Taking a closer look at the Establishment survey, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined.
Leisure and hospitality added 70,000 jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, food services and drinking places added 48,000 jobs.
In May, employment in local government rose by 55,000, largely reflecting a gain in local government, excluding education (+44,000).
Health care added 35,000 jobs in May, in line with the average monthly gain of 38,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, ambulatory health care services added 26,000 jobs, including a gain of 11,000 in home health care services. Employment continued to trend up in hospitals (+6,000).
Social assistance employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000), mostly in individual and family services (+10,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 17,000 jobs per month.
Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction increased by 5,000 in May and is up by 10,000 since February.
Financial activities employment declined by 22,000 in May and is down by 107,000 since a recent peak in May 2025. Over the month, job losses occurred in insurance carriers and related activities (-11,000) and commercial banking (-3,000).
Employment in transportation and warehousing was essentially unchanged in May (+1,000) but is down by 92,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025. Over the month, transit and ground passenger transportation (+9,000) and warehousing and storage (+6,000) added jobs. Air transportation lost 9,000 jobs, largely reflecting a business closure.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, and other services.
And visually:
One notable thing about the composition was the unexpected surge in Local Government jobs, which surged by 55K, the biggest jump since March 2024. It is unclear what prompted this.
Indeed, the composition of the job gains leaves a lot to be desired. As UBS notes, the upside surprise in May payrolls is concentrated in a few sectors with clear calendar and seasonal tailwinds, rather than broad-based strength.
The largest contributor was leisure & hospitality (+70k), far above its recent trend, consistent with UBS’s expectation that the timing of Memorial Day pulled hiring forward into May from June. Local government (+55k) was another key driver, likely reflecting smaller-than-usual seasonal education outflows and stronger non-education hiring, in line with UBS’s upside risks around state/local dynamics. Healthcare (+35k) and social assistance (+12k) provided steady baseline gains. Meanwhile, financial activities (-22k) detracted meaningfully.
Government and government-related sectors accounted for majority of job growth in May.
Local government +55K (biggest surge since March 2024)
Education and Health +40K
Putting it together, UBS concludes that the beat looks largely explained by timing distortions (holiday effects), public-sector swings, and steady services hiring, rather than a genuine reacceleration in underlying labour demand – reinforcing expectations that some of this strength may unwind or revise lower in coming months.
Others were similarly unimpressed: according to Vanguard, “Today’s strong jobs number looks appears like a seasonal surge than a turning point for the labor market. The labor market still appears resilient, but not as if it’s reaccelerating, and the unemployment rate remains essentially stuck around 4.3%. What’s notable is that unemployment is increasingly concentrated among younger, more educated workers who are staying in the labor force, and that’s one reason it may be harder for the rate to move meaningfully lower from here”
Looking at the composition of the numbers, we see even more weakness, with part-time jobs +266K while full-time jobs drop by 79K, second month of decline in a row and 4th in the past 5.
in kneejerk reaction, today’s very hot print immediately pushed rate hike odds higher, with traders now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike by year-end. According to Adam Crisafulli, “This jobs report will make life even harder for Warsh as his preferred dovish policy pathway is even more difficult to justify.”
As for the market, it is unclear how traders read this. As a reminder, JPM said that any number above 130k, could lead to SPX loses 1% to gains 50bp, depending on the internals. And now the narrative begins to nudge said internals in a bullish direction.
Globalist CEOs Sound Alarm Over Swiss Population Cap Vote
Summary:
Increasing Number of Globalist CEOs Concerned About Swiss Population Vote
Nestle CEO Warns Against Swiss Population Cap Vote
UBS CEO Warns Swiss Population Cap Is An ‘Extreme’ Measure
Switzerland’s “Ten Million” Vote Nears
Nestle CEO Warns Against Swiss Population Cap
Globalist CEOs who ignored more than a decade of Europe’s mass migration invasion from the third world because it was good for business may soon face headwinds from Swiss voters: a June 14 referendum that would cap the country’s permanent resident population below 10 million through 2050.
Nestlé CEO Philipp Navratil is the latest to warn Swiss citizens that a vote to cap the population at 10 million would not be good for business.
“Switzerland has established and created the conditions that enable a global company like us to thrive,” Navratil said at the Swiss Economic Forum in Interlaken on Friday, who was quoted by Bloomberg.
“It is important that these conditions and advantages in Switzerland remain in place. When we vote in the coming weeks, we need to keep that in mind,” Navratil added.
Navratil’s comments come just days after UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti called the hard-cap vote an “extreme initiative.”
The proposal has received strong support in many local polls, though the latest polling data puts opposition just north of 50% for the first time.
Switzerland’s population is already above 9.1 million, and estimates suggest migration would need to fall by at least half to avoid hitting the proposed ceiling by 2050.
Yet while these globalist CEOs found no issue with a decade of extreme mass migration from the third wolrd world into Europe, everyday working-class people have borne the brunt of the consequences.
UBS CEO Warns Swiss Population Cap Is An ‘Extreme’ Measure
A proposal headed for a June 14 vote in Switzerland made headlines for seeking to place a hard cap on the country’s permanent resident population at 10 million through 2050.
The vote is also being watched as a referendum on immigration pressure in Europe more broadly. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti has caught the vapors over the idea, describing it as an “extreme” measure that fails to address the country’s underlying challenges.
“I do worry about these extreme initiatives,” Ermotti said, speaking from the Swiss Economic Forum in Interlaken on Thursday. “Switzerland has 30% of foreign-born people, almost like in Australia, twice as Germany. And that leads to certain frustration within society. But it’s not a way to solve the problem.”
Switzerland’s population stood at approximately 9.1 million at the end of 2025. Since 2000, it has grown by about 1.9 million people, with roughly four-fifths of that increase attributable to net international migration. Swiss federal authorities measure the increase since the introduction of free movement of persons in 2002 at around 1.7 million.
Foreign nationals now make up about 27% of the resident population, while migration-background shares are higher. In 2024, 41% of Switzerland’s permanent resident population aged 15 and over had a migration background, including first-generation and second-generation residents. Ermotti highlighted the scale of the demographic shift, noting that Switzerland’s foreign-born share is comparable to Australia’s and roughly double Germany’s.
The “No to a Switzerland with 10 Million” initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), would enshrine a hard population limit in the Federal Constitution.If passed, it would require Switzerland’s permanent resident population to remain below 10 million until 2050. If the population exceeds 9.5 million before then, the Federal Council and Parliament would have to take measures, particularly in asylum and family reunification.
If the 10 million threshold is exceeded, Switzerland would also have to renegotiate or terminate international agreements that contribute to population growth, including the EU Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons after two years. That would also put the broader Bilateral Agreements I with the EU at risk. Supporters point to real pressures: housing shortages and rising rents in cities like Zurich and Geneva, strained infrastructure, overcrowded public transport, and concerns over long-term social cohesion in a small, mountainous nation.
UBS’s High Stakes In The Debate
UBS, one of Switzerland’s largest private-sector employers with more than 30,000 employees in the country and a heavily international workforce, has significant skin in the game. The bank relies on global talent to sustain its operations in finance, a sector where skilled foreign workers fill critical roles. A rigid population cap, critics including business leaders argue, could exacerbate labor shortages in an already aging society with a fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman.
Ermotti’s comments come as Switzerland grapples with balancing economic dynamism against quality-of-life concerns. Opponents of the cap, including the Federal Council and business groups, argue that Switzerland needs foreign workers in companies and public institutions such as hospitals and care homes, and that a constitutional ceiling would create uncertainty around Swiss-EU relations. Recent net immigration has moderated somewhat, falling for a second consecutive year in 2025, but remains high by historical standards.
The UBS chief stressed the need for evidence-based policymaking. “The discussions need to be balanced,” he said, urging authorities to ground decisions “on fact rather than emotion and scaremongering.”
Parallel Battles Over Capital Rules
Ermotti’s remarks on the population initiative coincided with ongoing tensions over Switzerland’s proposed capital requirements for UBS. The government is pushing to increase the common equity capital UBS must hold domestically against its foreign operations to 100% of each unit’s equity value, from 60% currently. The bank estimates this would require an additional roughly $20 billion in CET1 capital for its Swiss entity, a move it warns would damage its business model and, by extension, the broader domestic economy.
Parliament continues to debate the core package, with the process expected to last until next year. Ermotti’s call for fact-based deliberation applies equally here, as the bank awaits clarity on reforms that were partially watered down in April but remain demanding.
A Defining Moment For Swiss Identity And Economy
The referendum remains contested, though the latest reported polling shows opposition ahead, with 52% against the initiative and 45% in favor. It taps into broader European debates over low native fertility, labor needs, infrastructure limits, and national character. Switzerland’s direct democracy hands the ultimate choice to voters, making the outcome a potential bellwether for how high-income nations navigate sustained immigration.
Alarming Supply-Chain Stress Sends Transport Cost Soaring, Fueling Inflation Fears
Nearly three weeks ago, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade reactivated his desk’s supply-chain watch coverage after stress across global supply chains was “rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic.” That warning is now increasingly getting louder by the week, with ongoing disruptions around the Hormuz chokepoint and the resulting energy supply shock, pushing up input, freight, and other logistics costs across the global economy.
Weeks after Lafourcade’s warning, which can be read here, the May 2026 Logistics Managers’ Index Report showed transportation costs surging to the highest level in the index’s nearly 10-year history, while transportation capacity fell and transportation utilization remained elevated.
“Supply chains have been resilient despite these ongoing disruptions. However, in the past this level of elevate cost has eventually led to significant levels of supply-driven inflation,” the report stated.
Capacity is quickly contracting…
… and utilization is elevated, according to the report.
As a result, logistics costs are at “the highest level since March 2022,” the report noted, adding, “This previous peak was part of a run of high logistics inflation that led to the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years.”
The report warned, “Supply-driven inflation is more difficult for the Fed to combat than demand-driven inflation because higher interest rates cannot create greater supply (in some cases, they actually may hinder supply). If logistics costs remain elevated, it is likely there will be at least some inflation. Respondents seem to be predicting with this, forecasting aggregate logistics costs will increase at a rate of 253.6 over the next 12 months.”
Bloomberg was the first to cover the Logistics Managers’ Index Report on Thursday. This reporting only added to UBS analyst Lafourcade’s mid-May report that global supply chain stress was quickly emerging, with the Global Supply Chain Stress Index rising by 1.2 standard deviations in March and April, the second-largest two-month jump since July 2020.
Our read-through is that the potential for a supply-side inflation shock feeding into the economy could create a headache for the Federal Reserve. Higher rates would be the standard cure, but monetary policy cannot create trucking capacity, reopen trade chokepoints, lower diesel prices, or fix global shipping disruptions. That raises the risk of sticky inflation even as growth slows. This is why the Trump administration is working quickly to resolve issues in the Hormuz chokepoint.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book cited mounting concern among the business community about supply and freight costs.
The system that failed Henry Nowak will come under refreshed scrutiny as some medical experts have suggested police actions could have contributed to his tragic death.
An inquest will probe whether Hampshire police officers caused or contributed to the 18-year-old student’s death when they yanked his arms behind his back, handcuffed him, and treated him as a suspect while he lay bleeding out and pleading that he had been stabbed and could not breathe.
This comes even though the Independent Office for Police Conduct has already investigated and cleared the officers of misconduct.
‘There will be a full inquest with a jury next September.’
GB News National Reporter Jack Carson speaks live from Winchester Coroners Court and brings an update on the inquest that will look into whether police delay contributed to the death of Henry Nowak. pic.twitter.com/GmVmgE75pO
Henry Nowak murder inquest will investigate whether officers caused or contributed to death of student who was handcuffed as he lay dying https://t.co/1jTVPzoS2b
The coroner was not satisfied that prior probes fully met the state’s obligations under Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights – the right to life.
A jury inquest at Winchester Coroner’s Court will examine the broader circumstances, including any police acts or omissions and delays in treatment. However, the inquest is now adjourned until at least September 2027.
On December 3, 2025, in Southampton, 18-year-old first-year University of Southampton student Henry Nowak was stabbed five times with a ceremonial knife by Vickrum Digwa, 23. Digwa then lied to police, falsely claiming Henry had racially abused and attacked him while faking an eye injury.
Details continue to emerge revealing that Digwa also essentially taunted and tortured Henry while he was dying.
Henry remained conscious for roughly an hour after the attack. He repeatedly told anyone who would listen that he had been stabbed and could not breathe. When officers arrived, they believed the attacker’s story over the bleeding victim’s direct pleas. Bodycam footage shows Henry being dragged, turned, and having his arms forcefully pulled behind his back for handcuffing. Within about three minutes of those actions he lost consciousness and died.
A nearby major trauma center at Southampton University Hospital was only a two-to-three-minute drive away.
Dr. Krzysztof Magier, a paediatric critical care lead, has experience in battlefield medicine and specialist training in treating severe trauma including gunshot and stab wounds. He reviewed the police bodycam footage and the post-mortem report. He directly contradicts the pathologist and initial coroner findings that Henry had no chance of survival and that handcuffing changed nothing. On the contrary – he believes there is a high probability that the police intervention contributed to his death.
? Czy Henry Nowak móg? prze?y??
Dr Krzysztof Magier @DrMagier, lekarz pediatra i by?y konsul honorowy RP w Cowes, przeanalizowa? nagrania z policyjnej kamery nasobnej pokazuj?ce ?mier? Henry’ego Nowaka.
Dr Magier jest lekarzem prowadz?cym oddzia? intensywnej terapii dzieci?cej,… pic.twitter.com/zCZaaQQQyn
He analyzed the post-mortem report, which points to damage to the subclavian vein as the main source of bleeding, and explains where the problem lies.
In a healthy person, venous bleeding occurs under low pressure and often stops on its own thanks to a naturally forming clot. Simply bringing the wound edges together and pressure from surrounding tissues closes the vein enough to slow or even stop the bleeding.
From the police bodycam footage, when police arrived at the scene (probably 5-10 minutes after the injury), Henry was conscious enough to speak quite loudly. He was therefore not yet in a terminal state. After his arms were twisted behind his back and he was cuffed, it most likely caused the vein to stretch, the clot to tear, and a sudden intensification of bleeding. Within just about three minutes he lost consciousness and died.
People with suspected internal injuries should never be violently moved or jerked – such action can destroy the natural clot and lead to massive internal hemorrhage.
Instead of immediately calling an ambulance team and handing the patient over to paramedics, the police cuffed him. If paramedics had been the first to arrive on scene, Henry’s chances of survival would have been significantly higher. ‘50%’ – writes Dr Magier.
Paramedics could have quickly set up a drip, administered fluids to increase circulating blood volume and tranexamic acid to stabilize the clot, and if necessary performed needle decompression (inserting a thick and long needle into the lung), because the problem was not so much lack of lung function but compression of the blood-filled lung on the heart and mediastinum, which blocks circulation.
What is worse, the incident took place just a few minutes’ drive by car (2-3 minutes by ambulance on blue lights) from Southampton University Hospital – a regional Major Trauma Centre with full specialist backup, procedures and equipment. ‘I am convinced that if Henry had arrived there alive, the doctors would not have let him die’ – writes Dr Magier.
In summary: aggressive police intervention, instead of saving a life, led to death through inappropriate handling of a severely injured person, even though top-class care was within reach of a few minutes. ‘I fear that the Judge and pathologist were too lenient towards the police’ – writes Dr Magier.”
Summary – the police pulling Henry’s arms back, massively increased the blood flow and opened the wounds – so he went from consciousness and survival to dead in 3 minutes. https://t.co/B3uQiltwbS
Multiple trauma experts and serving officers reviewing the same footage have reached the same conclusion: the forceful restraint and positioning almost certainly disrupted a forming clot and restricted breathing in a chest injury victim who was still talking and conscious moments earlier.
Henry Nowak lived for a full hour after he was stabbed.
He died immediately after he was laid on the ground and handcuffed.
The IOPC looked into the officers’ contact with Henry, including the decision to handcuff a dying man who posed no threat and the first aid provided – or not provided. They cleared the officers.
Officers who followed training that prioritizes accusations of racism over immediate medical care for a white victim were given a pass by the system that trained them.
This was not an isolated failure of judgment on a chaotic night. It occurred in a force where officers have openly admitted that mandatory “Inclusion Matters” DEI training left them feeling controlled and pressured to adopt specific ideological views about race.
Serving and former Hampshire officers told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman that sessions drummed in white privilege and unconscious bias.
One trainer was described as “deeply hateful of white people and our culture.” Officers feared career damage for pushing back.
The same training environment that frames native Britons as inherently privileged appears to have influenced how officers processed a white student’s desperate claims against a minority attacker’s false racism narrative.
Chief Constable Alexis Boon later apologized to Henry’s family for the handcuffing and arrest. One officer has since resigned. But the institutional response remains the same: investigate ourselves, find no misconduct, move on.
Coroner Jason Pegg made clear that previous investigations, including the IOPC process, did not fully satisfy the state’s duty to investigate a death in custody properly. The inquest will now look at whether police actions or delays in getting Henry proper medical care contributed to his death. It will be held with a jury.
Members of Henry’s family has asked that the case not be used to sow division. That is understandable. But the facts on the bodycam footage and the medical analysis speak for themselves. A conscious young man who could have reached a major trauma center alive was instead restrained in a way experts say likely accelerated his death, while officers prioritized the attacker’s story.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has accused Elon Musk of “whipping up division” after the X owner criticised the police’s “heinous” treatment of Henry.
BREAKING: Starmer accuses Elon Musk of ‘trying to whip up division in the UK’ following the murder of Henry Nowak
Rather than confront the bodycam evidence, Starmer’s instinct is of course to target the platform and the individual drawing attention to it.
This is the classic establishment reflex when two-tier policing and ideological capture are exposed. The same voices that stayed quiet or defended the system now blame free speech and outside scrutiny for the resulting anger.
Meanwhile, the underlying issues – DEI training that pressures officers to view white victims through a lens of suspicion, the willingness to believe an attacker’s false racism claim over direct pleas for medical help, and the refusal to suspend officers in a case this egregious – remain unaddressed.
Vickrum Digwa has been jailed for life with a minimum of 21 years. That is justice for the murder. But the question the inquest must answer is whether the state’s own agents – trained under DEI frameworks that treat white victims with suspicion – finished what the knife started.
Police exist to protect the public without regard to race. When ideology overrides that duty and the system then clears itself while the Prime Minister attacks critics instead of demanding answers, trust collapses.
