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Meanwhile, Today In ‘Everything Is Racist’…

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Meanwhile, Today In ‘Everything Is Racist’…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A Harlem bagel shop that has served its neighborhood for nearly a decade was forced to pull a cartoon mascot from the sidewalk after an influencer declared the smiling, sunglasses-wearing bagel a “blackface bagel.”

Yes, really. Bagels are now racist.

Threats and harassment followed. The offense was a piece of local street art.

Bo’s Bagels on West 116th Street, opened in 2017 by New York native Andrew Martinez and co-owner Ashley Dikos after they could not find decent bagels in the area, displayed a life-sized cardboard cutout that doubled as a chalkboard sign.

Designed by Harlem-based artist Tom Sanford, the mascot featured golden grills reading “Harlem World,” a large gold ring marked “NYC,” and the cheerful expression of a cartoon character.

Critics treated the grills, ring, and browned cartoon skin as evidence of a racist caricature.

The sequence began with Harlem photographer Carl Broady, who posted on Instagram that the sign was a “disrespectful caricature of black people.”

He wrote that “the sign’s exaggerated features, bulging lips and teeth, and darkened skin tone […] recall the racist caricatures historically used to degrade Black people.”

The post gained traction. TikTok creator Anastazia X, who has roughly 4,000 followers and produces content under Black Star Reviews while involved with Harlem Votes, visited the shop and amplified the claim.

In her video she called the cutout a “blackface bagel” and said “it’s not funny,” while describing other art inside as “a little askew.” She also stated the shop was white-owned and that an email she sent had been ignored. The video spread, drawing comments that framed the grills and overall look as stereotypical.

Martinez, who has lived in Harlem for nearly 20 years, told the New York Post the situation “got completely out of hand by a bunch of people who know nothing about us. And the rage was coming in from people who just wanted to call us racist.”

He said callers contacted his Black employees with the message “you need to leave there because your owners hate you,” which he rejected as untrue. Other influencers arrived to film additional videos.

The owners removed the cutout from the sidewalk and placed it out of sight. Martinez noted that local customers already know the shop’s record: “This is actually almost weird to us because Harlemites love us. They know what we do. We donate to schools. We give food away to the homeless shelters.”

Sanford, who has lived in Harlem since the mid-1990s and whose other work includes life-sized Knicks player cutouts displayed near City Hall during the team’s recent championship run, rejected the blackface framing.

“I did not intend it to be necessarily African American, but I did want it to be of Harlem,” he told NBC New York. He added, “Personally, I do not see uptown streetwear culture in a negative light at all,” and described the grills and related elements as “overwhelmingly positive cultural contributions that came from the streets of my neighborhood and crossed over into the mainstream.”

He said he wanted “nothing more than to celebrate that culture,” linking the design to hip-hop and neighborhood street style rather than historical minstrel imagery.

Co-owner Ashley Dikos, who has run the shop with Martinez for nearly a decade, described the piece the same way: “That art to me was celebratory, positive. He’s smiling, it’s a bagel, it’s a cartoon. It just wasn’t ever supposed to be controversial.” She later observed that “being a business owner is not for the faint of heart.”

Neighborhood reactions were not uniform. One longtime Harlem resident told the Post he saw “stereotypical imagery” in the gold chains and overall presentation, comparing it to older caricatures.

Another resident, Genisha Metcalf, said plainly “that’s not blackface” and that labeling the sign racist went too far.

Local accounts on X later questioned the rush to condemnation, noting the shop’s employment of Black staff and its support for neighborhood causes, and asked why energy was directed at a cardboard mascot rather than other issues in the area.

Anastazia X later told the Post she was “sorry that employees and the owner have been harassed as a result of the video” and that “that was not my intention and I don’t condone or support any behavior of that kind.”

The episode fits a familiar pattern in which ordinary commercial expression – here a smiling bagel character referencing the very neighborhood street culture the artist and owners live in – becomes the next target once the online machinery identifies an angle.

When a cartoon bagel with grills and a ring can generate this response and force a small business to alter its storefront, the standard for offense has expanded beyond comprehension.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 22:00

America Can’t Stockpile Missiles Without Reloading On Conflict-Free Critical Materials

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America Can’t Stockpile Missiles Without Reloading On Conflict-Free Critical Materials

Authored by Anthony Milewski of The Oregon Group, 

Sixteen days of the Iran war left coalition forces needing an estimated 4,000kg of tungsten just to replace the expended gun ammunition — but US mines produced none of the metal in 2025 and, instead, China accounted for 79% of global tungsten mine production.

And it’s not just tungsten.

In a RUSI analysis of the Iran war, researchers estimated coalition forces expended more than 11,000 munitions in the first 16 days. And replenishing these arsenals will require secure access to a wide range critical minerals — from antimony to copper, rare earths to titanium — that make advanced weapon systems possible.

And the West’s exposure, especially dependence on Chinese supply, is substantial. 

“If the war in Ukraine was a wake-up call for the Western defence industrial base, the first 16 days of the Iran conflict are a fire alarm signalling a crisis of endurance” — Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance

Material risk matrix from War on the Rocks, August 2025. The authors’ scores show relative risks, not measured percentages.

The critical mineral risks behind the weaponry

In their August 2025 War on the Rocks analysis, Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, Clarkson Kamurai and Jahara Matisek, ranks across two broad tiers:

  • first-tier risks are gallium, the battery-chemicals chain, tungsten, and graphite
  • second tier includes titanium sponge, germanium, antimony, indium, magnesium, and molybdenum, with nitrocellulose and finish-line capacity in specialty steels and aerospace aluminum (requiring near-term hedges because surge capacity is slow to add)

The assessment combines concentration of supply, military importance, limited substitutes and the time needed to add capacity. For example, refining, separation and specialised finishing are frequent constraints if a mine whose output still passes through a vulnerable refining process that leaves part of the exposure intact.

Across ammunition, missiles and supporting military systems, six critical mineral priorities stand out:

For example, tungsten and gallium illustrate America’s (and the West’s) vulnerability because they underpin both weapons and the systems that support them: tungsten is used in armaments and the cutting tools needed to manufacture military equipment, while gallium enables semiconductors used in advanced military radars. Yet, China accounted for approx 79% of global tungsten mine production and 99% of primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, exposing these capabilities to highly concentrated mineral supply chains.

An arsenal built on imported minerals

US vulnerability extends across the critical-mineral supply chain. 

A July 2026 Government Accountability Office assessment reported that the US was fully import-dependent for 12 critical minerals and relied on imports for at least half its requirements for another 34.

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. Total import reliance is for 2025; China’s share of imports covers 2021–24. The two measures have different denominators

Despite recent government funding, the scale of the challenge for the US remains significant, for example:

The Pentagon is increasingly explicit about the stakes.

“Securing resilient domestic and allied supply chains is a fundamental warfighting requirement,” said Mike Cadenazzi, the Pentagon’s assistant secretary responsible for industrial base policy, in an August 2026 announcement committing US$750 million to secure rare-earth supply from Brazil’s Serra Verde.

Acting Secretary of the Army Honorable Adam Telle recently announced the Army’s first‑ever “Manufacturing Rodeo”, describing it as a competitive stress test for both the Army’s organic industrial base and the nation’s broader manufacturing network.

Meanwhile, the mineral demands of military rearmament are becoming more pressing. Global military expenditure reached a record US$2.887 trillion in 2025, with European spending rising 14% in real terms. US expenditure fell that year, but the wider rearmament cycle continued. Larger budgets create purchasing power; they cannot immediately create additional mineral supply.

Tungsten shows why securing supply takes more than money

The four tonnes of tungsten used in the weapons fired in the 11 days of the Iran War is a relatively small quantity in the wider tungsten market (the US imported an estimated 11,700 tonnes of tungsten in 2025) — but securing dependable supplies outside China increasingly means committing years ahead.

In July 2026, US processor Global Tungsten & Powders extended its agreement for approximately 90% of Sangdong’s first-phase production to 21 years; buyers seeking additional material face a market where substantial volumes of new supply already have a customer.

And China has tightened access to its own production after, in February 2025, Beijing introduced export licensing requirements for selected tungsten products. S&P Global’s August 2026 report found that prices more than quadrupled between January-July in 2026.

(See our recent article Tungsten price shock signals deeper supply crisis)

US sourcing requirements are tightening too: from January 2027, defence procurement restrictions on covered tungsten products extend back to the mining and feedstock stages, generally excluding Chinese-origin material even when processed elsewhere, subject to specified exceptions.

Turning defence demand into secure mineral supply

The clearest evidence of the strategic urgency is Washington’s growing intervention in mining finance — particularly domestic projects — including:

Conclusion

Before America can reload its missile stockpiles, it must first reload its critical-mineral supply chains — potentially making the mining companies capable of delivering those materials at scale strategic pillars of the US defense industrial base.

* * * 

Our Take 

The Oregon Group’s assessment that the US must “reload its critical-mineral supply chains” before accelerating the rearmament supercycle reinforces our focus on miners already producing these materials. 

Yet a sharp disconnect has emerged between mining stocks and underlying spot metal prices. 

We highlighted that divergence in “Great Rare Earth Disconnect,” a view shared by William Blair analysts, which suggested that rare earth stocks trading at 52-week lows… 

… may present a buying opportunity, arguing that optimism surrounding Chinese supply is “incorrect.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 21:00

Lula Leads After Last-Minute Voting Extension As “Bolsonaro Trade” Implodes; Trader Warns Of “Circuit Breaker” Chaos

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Lula Leads After Last-Minute Voting Extension As “Bolsonaro Trade” Implodes; Trader Warns Of “Circuit Breaker” Chaos

Summary:

  • NYT: Several electoral lawyers say today’s vote could be annulled
  • With 99.7% of ballots counted, Lula has 51.8% of the vote, while Bolsonaro has 48.2%.
  • Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours
  • Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America’s Political Balance

Election Could Be Annulled 

New York Times reporter Adam Ellick reports: 

Several electoral lawyers say today’s vote could be annulled due to confusion over the late decision to extend voting hours. All four lawyers interviewed call the situation unprecedented. 

“This is an extremely serious, critical situation,” said Priscilla Sodré Pereira, an electoral lawyer. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin decided, minutes before polls closed, to extend all polling stations by two additional hours. 

By the time of the announcement, some polling centers had already closed, their voting machines had shut down, and they could not reopen. 

Fernando Neisser, an electoral law professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian research institute, said the election could be annulled if the margin is very narrow and it is shown that polling stations stayed open longer in areas that strongly favor one candidate.

Meanwhile …

Latest Election Update

With 99.7% of ballots counted, Lula has 51.8% of the vote, while Bolsonaro has 48.2%.

8 hours ago, Bolsonaro was 82% odds on to win…

Earlier, Lula asked a Brazilian Supreme Court judge to extend voting nationwide by two hours.

That likely allowed…

“If a conservative government in Brazil did this, everyone in the mainstream press in America would lose their minds, but I guess they’re just choosing to be silent because it’s all for the cause,” Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X, commenting on Lula’s last-minute request to extend voting.

In markets, Hyperliquid’s Brazil ETF perpetual crashed nearly 30% as the “Bolsonaro trade” unwinds.

Bloomberg analyst Felipe Saturnino cited Isabela Fukase, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Tivio Capital, who warned: “There will be a ‘circuit breaker’ in Brazil stocks and DI rates tomorrow” if Lula is confirmed as the winner.

Fukase said that, in that scenario, swap rate futures would rise “more than 150 basis points easily, 200 basis points,” while the Brazilian real would likely fall about 10%.

All it took for Lula and the socialists was to extend the election. This will probably be challenged. 

Brazilian Supreme Court Judge Extends Voting Time By Two Hours

AFP News reports that a Brazilian Supreme Court judge extended voting nationwide by two hours after complaints that public transport problems had hindered access to polling stations.

Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered polling stations to remain open until 7 p.m. local time, or 6 p.m. in New York, following a request from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

One key question is whether the additional voting window boosts turnout in Lula’s favor. The transport complaints also raise questions about cheating. 

Hyperliquid’s Brazil ETF perpetual dropped 3.5% on the news. 

Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America’s Political Balance

Brazilians began voting early Sunday in a presidential runoff, with right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied. Bolsonaro won the first round at the start of the month.

Nearly 160 million people are eligible to vote today, with polling stations closing at 1600 ET. A last-minute AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg, released Saturday, showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 51% to 49%, largely in line with other final polls. The survey’s margin of error was 1 percentage point.

Regular readers will remember that polls showed Lula ahead going into the first round, but Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.

Goldman’s chief Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, provides the latest in his runoff Q&A (available to pro subscribers):

“The race has tightened considerably. Polls immediately after the first round gave conservative Bolsonaro a 4- to 5-point lead over left-wing incumbent President Lula in the October 25 runoff. His lead has since narrowed to 0 to 2.5 points, with one outlier, Vox, showing Lula slightly ahead. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the odds are less lopsided than immediately after the first round.”

Here is Goldman’s poll-of-polls, which shows Bolsonaro’s lead eroding in the final stretch (chart source: GS GIR):

And here is the full scorecard by pollster. Goldman’s average still puts Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%, a 2-point lead right on the edge of most surveys’ margin of error. Note how many arrows point down: in almost every poll, the senator’s lead is smaller than it was in that pollster’s previous survey.

Polymarket gives Bolsonaro an 82% chance of winning the runoff, while Lula’s odds are around 20%.

Post-Election Market Outlook:

UBS analyst Kyle Duca adds more color to FX impact on election results: 

Trading and strategy see a wide two-way range for BRL around the presidential runoff, but distinguish between the likely FX and rates reactions in each outcome. 

The FX trading desk sees a Lula win pushing USDBRL toward 5.40-5.45, where the move could run out of steam as higher rates bring the carry trade back into play and encourage USDBRL selling. 

On a Flavio win, trading sees more of a rates story, with USDBRL likely moving toward 4.90-4.80 before interest to clean up emerges. A sharp rates rally and diminished carry could then leave FX consolidating around those levels. 

FX Strategy sees USDBRL at 4.70-4.80 if Flavio wins 52%-48%, with less upside for BRL if the margin is below 1%. A Lula victory would put USDBRL at 5.30-5.50.

The “Bolsonaro trade” is already gaining momentum ahead of the runoff.

The black line, Hyperliquid’s Brazil ETF perpetual, has surged to $45.16, about 6% above the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which closed at $42.59 on Friday. 

By this evening, Brazilian voters will decide whether to accelerate Latin America’s rightward shift or extend a failed left-wing economic agenda that risks deeper deficits, a mounting debt pile, higher interest rates, more economic gloom, and faltering investor confidence. A Bolsonaro win would cement the continent’s rightward shift.  

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 20:37

Trump Treasury Lining Up Private Debt Collectors To Seize Wages From Nearly 10 Million Student Loan Defaulters: Report

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Trump Treasury Lining Up Private Debt Collectors To Seize Wages From Nearly 10 Million Student Loan Defaulters: Report

Trump administration officials are preparing to penalize millions of Americans in default on their federal student loans next year, The Washington Sun reported, citing five people familiar with the matter. The Treasury Department is moving forward with plans to hire private debt collectors, possibly as soon as November, three of the sources said, and those plans are unlikely to be announced before the midterm elections.

According to the Treasury’s Sept. 30 release – there are more than 5 million borrowers who have been in default for over six years and another 5 million who entered default in less than a year.

The plan would revive collections the administration shelved this year. As we noted in January, the Education Department said it would begin garnishing wages in January, with up to 15% of a borrower’s after-tax income at stake and about 1,000 notices expected the first week. That same month, however, ABC News reported that the department paused both wage garnishment and Treasury Offset Program collections – tax refund seizures included. Under Secretary Nicholas Kent said the tools “will function more efficiently and fairly” after reforms, and the department said it had collected roughly $500 million from defaulted borrowers before the pause.

According to the Sun, last year the White House Office of Management and Budget began helping the Education Department prepare to seize federal benefits and wages from defaulted borrowers, and Treasury officials blocked the effort, citing the economic cost of punitive measures against workers. Staff said they warned senior Treasury officials that scores of Trump supporters would be seriously hurt by going after the wages and benefits of people struggling to keep their jobs. “This is not who you think it is. The demographics are not good for us,” one source said.

Some officials want to garnish benefits and wages for the current tax year, meaning the April 15, 2027 deadline, but the sources cautioned that it could slip again while Treasury makes sure its new Defaulted Loans Support Center is working. That online portal for rehabilitating or consolidating a defaulted loan launched Sept. 30. The administration’s stated preference remains getting borrowers into voluntary payment plans. “It would be politically insane to do this before the midterms,” one source said, “but 2027 probably makes a little more sense.”

The government has two main tools; one seizes payments that follow taxes, such as expected tax refunds, Social Security payments, and the earned income tax credit and child tax credit. The other garnishes wages by requiring employers to send the money to the government. Newsweek noted that wages can be garnished up to 15% without a court order, citing the National Consumer Law Center, and that borrowers generally get at least 30 days’ notice first.

OMB and Treasury declined to comment. The Education Department said: “We don’t respond to fishing expeditions.” IBTimes noted that no agency has responded on the record to the plans themselves, and no restart date has been announced.

Treasury’s push last year to postpone collections has cost taxpayers about $5 billion so far, according to Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and the figure grows the longer the administration waits. “They’ve done the same thing they criticized Biden for,” Goldwein said. Treasury’s September release itself blamed the prior administration for the default pile-up, including its termination of contracts with private collection vendors, the same kind of contractors Treasury is now reportedly preparing to hire.

Advocates see the post-election timing as political opportunism. Michael Pierce, executive director of Protect Borrowers, said Treasury may not even have the data needed to certify the debts for collection, a legal prerequisite. “What comes next will be a catastrophe for families across the country,” he said. The Center for American Progress estimates 9.5 million borrowers are in default, according to IBTimes.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 20:30

Trump Says He Might Support Student Loan Interest Cap

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Trump Says He Might Support Student Loan Interest Cap

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he might support a bill capping federal student loan interest at 2.5 percent. Interest rates for newer federal student loans range from 6.52 percent to 9.07 percent, depending on the loan type.

President Donald Trump (L) speaks to reporters alongside First Lady Melania Trump after they cast their ballots during early voting in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Oct. 24, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“President Trump said he will support capping federal student loan interest rates at 2.5%! This has been an issue that I’ve long championed in Congress,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) in an X post on Saturday.

“Every American that decides to pursue higher education, especially in STEM, becomes an asset to our nation and gives us an edge on China.”

Luna posted a video of Trump saying “he might” support an interest rate cap.

In June, Luna introduced a resolution asking the House to consider legislation to lower the interest rate on federal student loans to 2 percent.

The issue has been circulating in Congress for a while. Rep. Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.) introduced the Affordable Loans for Students bill in March 2025 that would lower the interest rate on student loans to 2 percent. It sits in the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.

Democrats introduced legislation in 2026 to eliminate interest on federal student loans.

Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) and Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) reintroduced the Student Loan Interest Elimination Act on March 24 to eliminate interest on federal student loans, offering another approach to reducing borrowing costs.

Courtney said student debt affects 43 million borrowers.

The Act would let borrowers refinance current and future federal student loans at zero percent interest, according to a statement from Courtney’s office.

Courtney said interest payments impose a substantial burden on borrowers already struggling with living expenses.

“At a time when Americans are experiencing a cost-of-living crisis, student loan repayment with interest adds a crushing burden to millions of middle-class student loan borrowers,” he said in a statement.

In June, the Department of Education announced that 42.6 million people had federal student loans totaling $1.7 trillion. As of March 2026, about 9 million borrowers had $220 billion in outstanding federal student loans in default.

The Trump administration introduced two student loan repayment plans July 1 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The Repayment Assistance Plan bases monthly payments on income and reduces them by $50 for each dependent, according to the Department of Education.

The Trump administration agreed on Oct. 21 to dismiss two appeals seeking to reinstate restrictions on the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, while a third appeal remained pending, according to court filings.

Federal judges in Massachusetts and Washington struck down an Education Department rule June 30 that would have excluded employers deemed to have a “substantial illegal purpose.”

Nonprofit organizations, states and other challengers argued that the department exceeded its authority by imposing restrictions Congress had not authorized.

The federal student loan payment pause began March 13, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, suspending payments and interest on eligible loans. After extensions under the Trump and Biden administrations, interest resumed Sept. 1, 2023. Most borrowers’ payments became due again in October 2023, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 19:00

Ottawa’s Counter-Tariffs On US Costing Canadians $100 Million Weekly, Economist Says

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Ottawa’s Counter-Tariffs On US Costing Canadians $100 Million Weekly, Economist Says

Authored by Jason G. Antonio via The Epoch Times,

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports are costing consumers an estimated $100 million a week and raising prices by about 0.25 percent, an economist told MPs.

Trucks stop near the Peace Bridge US-Canada border crossing, on March 20, 2026, in Buffalo, N.Y. AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe testified before the House of Commons foreign affairs committee on Oct. 21 about the counter-tariffs that Ottawa imposed on $28 billion of American imports on Sept. 8, in a tit-for-tat response to American tariffs that took effect Aug. 22.

The retaliatory tariffs ranged from 15 percent on U.S. farm equipment and appliances to 25 percent on construction supplies and 50 percent on smartphones, furniture, aluminum, and steel.

Tombe told MPs that Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs cut half a percentage point from the disposable income of Canadians making under $30,000 a year and increased consumer prices “across the board” by roughly 0.25 percent, as first reported by Blacklock’s Reporter.

“Just for consumers, not even for businesses, it’s about $100 million per week of additional costs,” he said.

“Those costs might be worth paying if one is making an argument that there are non-economic objectives that these tariffs achieve,” he added. “I don’t know what those might be. … So, I’d say the economic case for retaliation is thin.”

The federal government has said it is applying counter-tariffs on the United States to shield domestic producers amid U.S. tariffs, and to also apply pressure on the White House to remove its tariffs.

“We’re also targeting products that will target states in the U.S.,” Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said in August.

“We’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure, and that’s why we think it’s the right thing to do right now.”

Tombe said a better way to understand the U.S. tariffs is that they are really an “American domestic policy rather than a bilateral dispute with Canada.” Furthermore, he said Ottawa’s retaliation only adds costs for Canadian consumers, while its effect on American policy “appears to be quite limited.”

He called the U.S. tariff increases “the largest trade policy change” in the country’s 250-year history.

He said the average U.S. tariff globally was 2 percent in 2024, then it jumped to 30 percent in 2025 before falling to an average of 11 percent. He put the average U.S. tariff on Canadian goods at 8 percent, lower than rates faced by 93 other countries.

“So this may be less of a trade war with Canada than a fundamental change in how the United States runs its economy,” Tombe said. He said a tariff essentially equals a domestic consumption tax plus a production subsidy of the same rate.

Tombe said Canada’s 2025 retaliatory tariffs generated $4 billion in federal revenue over six months.

He added that it’s difficult for a small country’s tariffs to meaningfully affect the target country’s economic costs, especially one as big as the United States.

“There’s no evidence that the retaliation we’ve enacted has changed U.S. behavior,” he told MPs.

Tombe said that “Canada faces something of a trilemma,” since it wants to retaliate by targeting goods from politically important states, goods where Canadian companies are major buyers, and goods where Canada can easily substitute for other things.

“And doing all three is quite difficult,” he said, noting that a tariff package meeting all those objectives would be roughly one-tenth the size of a full dollar-for-dollar retaliation.

Tombe also said Ottawa’s counter-tariff package didn’t actually follow through on dollar-for-dollar retaliation; instead, it was about 60 cents for every dollar.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 18:00

Ilhan Omar’s Deleted 2013 Tweet Could Be Key Evidence In Federal Probe

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Ilhan Omar’s Deleted 2013 Tweet Could Be Key Evidence In Federal Probe

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) once posted a Father’s Day message that appears to identify her father as “Nur Said,” a name that closely matches that of her ex-husband, Ahmed Nur Said Elmi.

“Happy Father’s Day to my aabo Nur Said, I am forever grateful to Allah for giving me the best father …” Omar wrote in June 2013. She removed the post on the morning of Sept. 17, 2019.

Omar deleted the 2013 post six years later, and it has now resurfaced as federal investigators examine her identity and immigration records.

Federal agents searched Omar’s Washington, D.C., home on Oct. 12 as part of a criminal investigation into possible false statements on her immigration and naturalization documents. Court records tied to the search warrant, first obtained by Fox News Digital, refer to the congresswoman as “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi, a.k.a. Ilhan Abdullahi Omar.” The filing does not explain why it uses that name, and it does not show that she used a false identity.

The name Omar gave her father in the 2013 post, Nur Said, also appears in the name the federal filing now uses.

Two people familiar with the investigation told Fox News Digital that “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi” may be Omar’s legal name, however, her office disputes that account.

Fox News Digital asked Omar on Friday for her real name. “Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, you know it,” Omar said. “It’s Ilhan Abdullahi Omar.”

Other records list a different name for her father. A Congressional Black Caucus memorial post following his death in 2020 identified him as “Nur Omar Mohamed.” Some reports, however, have used “Nur Said.” In one example, Oxford University historian Mohamed Haji Ingiriis referred to him by that name in a New York Post article about his alleged military service.

“He was a full colonel in Siad Barre’s military regime,” Ingiriis told The Post. “Ilhan’s father was never an educator. Nur Said was a military officer who was loyal to the regime until the end. He was part and parcel of those who caused and created the mayhem they ‘fled’ to live comfortably in the United States.”

Fox News has not independently confirmed whether the father’s name is Nur Said Elmi Mohamed, as alleged, or Nur Omar Mohamed. Omar’s office did not answer Fox News Digital’s request for comment on the deleted post.

Nur died in June 2020 at age 67 from complications with COVID.

The Daily Caller first reported on an archived copy of the post in 2019. Questions about Omar’s immigration records first drew wide attention that same year.

A statement attributed to Omar’s spokesperson has also circulated online again. It says “Nur Said” was her father’s childhood nickname and that he maintained a public page under that name. According to the same statement, Omar deleted the tweet after her family received threats.

Omar and her office have repeatedly denied that Elmi is her brother. She denies any wrongdoing and has described the federal probe as a political attack.

On Thursday, her spokesperson said that Omar has “repeatedly and unequivocally denied” what the spokesperson called a “baseless, disgusting conspiracy theory” that she married her brother.

However, Omar’s recent comments undermined those denials. On Wednesday, during an interview with Chris Hayes on MS NOW, Hayes asked Omar whether her one-time husband might be a “distant relative.”

“Not to my knowledge,” Omar said.

Omar and Elmi divorced in 2017. She legally married Ahmed Hirsi in 2018.

The investigation now centers on what Omar stated on her federal immigration and naturalization paperwork. A former Minnesota federal immigration judge said that if investigators prove Omar knowingly used a false name on federal forms, she could face scrutiny under the federal false-statements law, 18 U.S.C. § 1001.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 17:30

House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win Midterms

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House Dems Target Hegseth For Impeachment If They Win Midterms

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

House Democrats are already plotting to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth if they regain control of Congress in November, making the Trump administration official a top target of their anticipated return to power.

While Democratic leaders have largely avoided discussing another impeachment of President Donald Trump, they have openly embraced efforts to remove Hegseth.

“One of the first things we’re going to do in the majority, we’re going to run Pete Hegseth out of town,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., declared during a Pennsylvania rally earlier this month.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Democrats are preparing impeachment efforts both before the current Congress adjourns and next year, should they secure a House majority.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., has accused Hegseth of being incompetent and corrupt, while Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., described him as an extremist who should be removed.

The Pentagon has pushed back against the attacks.

Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson defended Hegseth’s leadership, saying the department remains united behind his agenda of strengthening America’s military and ensuring troops have the resources necessary to succeed.

Democrats have criticized Hegseth over his handling of military operations against Iran, personnel changes and a 2025 incident involving sensitive military information shared through a Signal group chat.

However, the impeachment push is not exclusively Democratic.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., a vocal opponent of American military intervention overseas, introduced impeachment articles against Hegseth in September, arguing that the administration’s military operations against Iran were unlawful.

Massie plans to force a House vote when lawmakers return Nov. 9.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 House advantage, including an independent who caucuses with the GOP. Democrats would need additional Republican support to impeach Hegseth before the new Congress convenes.

Several Republicans, including Reps. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Warren Davidson of Ohio, have indicated they oppose impeachment.

Even if Democrats regain the House and successfully impeach Hegseth, removing him would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, an outcome widely considered unlikely.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 17:00

Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America’s Political Balance

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Brazil Runoff Enters Final Hour: Left-Right Showdown Could Reshape Latin America’s Political Balance

Brazilians began voting early Sunday in a presidential runoff, with right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied. Bolsonaro won the first round at the start of the month.

Nearly 160 million people are eligible to vote today, with polling stations closing at 1600 ET. A last-minute AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg, released Saturday, showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 51% to 49%, largely in line with other final polls. The survey’s margin of error was 1 percentage point.

Regular readers will remember that polls showed Lula ahead going into the first round, but Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%.

Goldman’s chief Latin America economist, Alberto Ramos, provides the latest in his runoff Q&A (available to pro subscribers):

“The race has tightened considerably. Polls immediately after the first round gave conservative Bolsonaro a 4- to 5-point lead over left-wing incumbent President Lula in the October 25 runoff. His lead has since narrowed to 0 to 2.5 points, with one outlier, Vox, showing Lula slightly ahead. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the odds are less lopsided than immediately after the first round.”

Here is Goldman’s poll-of-polls, which shows Bolsonaro’s lead eroding in the final stretch (chart source: GS GIR):

And here is the full scorecard by pollster. Goldman’s average still puts Bolsonaro ahead 51% to 49%, a 2-point lead right on the edge of most surveys’ margin of error. Note how many arrows point down: in almost every poll, the senator’s lead is smaller than it was in that pollster’s previous survey.

Polymarket gives Bolsonaro an 82% chance of winning the runoff, while Lula’s odds are around 20%.

Post-Election Market Outlook:

UBS analyst Kyle Duca adds more color to FX impact on election results: 

Trading and strategy see a wide two-way range for BRL around the presidential runoff, but distinguish between the likely FX and rates reactions in each outcome. 

The FX trading desk sees a Lula win pushing USDBRL toward 5.40-5.45, where the move could run out of steam as higher rates bring the carry trade back into play and encourage USDBRL selling. 

On a Flavio win, trading sees more of a rates story, with USDBRL likely moving toward 4.90-4.80 before interest to clean up emerges. A sharp rates rally and diminished carry could then leave FX consolidating around those levels. 

FX Strategy sees USDBRL at 4.70-4.80 if Flavio wins 52%-48%, with less upside for BRL if the margin is below 1%. A Lula victory would put USDBRL at 5.30-5.50.

The “Bolsonaro trade” is already gaining momentum ahead of the runoff.

The black line, Hyperliquid’s Brazil ETF perpetual, has surged to $45.16, about 6% above the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), which closed at $42.59 on Friday. 

By this evening, Brazilian voters will decide whether to accelerate Latin America’s rightward shift or extend a failed left-wing economic agenda that risks deeper deficits, a mounting debt pile, higher interest rates, more economic gloom, and faltering investor confidence. A Bolsonaro win would cement the continent’s rightward shift.  

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 14:55

They Went To A Pro Women’s Soccer Match And A Communist Purge Broke Out. Feds Investigating…

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They Went To A Pro Women’s Soccer Match And A Communist Purge Broke Out. Feds Investigating…

Authored by Victoria Taft via PJ Media,

Confirmed: the women’s sports world in Portland, Ore., is nothing if not a political mob. This mob consists of disaffected men who want to be women, their allies, lesbian activists, and finally, a sprinkling of normal families who want their kids exposed to women’s professional athletics. Notice there’s not much mention of the game, which seems to be incidental to the leftist political confab, where everyone agrees with each other or shuts up if he or she doesn’t.

Shutting up is important. Shhh. Don’t challenge preexisting ideological beliefs the mob clings to the way furries cling to their stuffed animals and cat’s ears. They get real mean real fast.

And so in the same way that the Portland Timbers FC has become a welcoming place for Antifa mobs for years, the motley mob has also claimed Major League Soccer (MLS)’s Thorns FC team. The mob consists of some of the same people who destroyed downtown businesses in the Antifa riots in the Summer of Love, mere blocks away from Providence Park.

And those forces worked to expel independent reporter Brandi Kruse and others, including a male OutKick reporter. A uniformed guard whom the MLS franchise paid to provide “security” ripped the OutKick reporter’s press pass from his neck.

Kruse’s violation? She wore a shirt bearing the letters XX-XY.

She chanted “Save women’s sports! Save women’s sports!” The commie mob insisted that this group, which included lesbians, Kruse, and the OutKick reporter, be purged. And purged they were.

Look at that guy’s (?) shirt with the Nazi swastika in Kruse’s photo. He looks familiar, like an Antifa person I’ve seen before.

Is Nazi iconography allowed in the stands at the Thorns game? Apparently.

And he and his buddies had chants, too. Kruse wrote:

These are the shirts allowed for the @ThornsFC fans. None of them were removed. They have chants about burning people alive. Fans assaulted multiple people wearing @xx_xyathletics shirts. None of them were removed. I am quite literally in shock.

The mob attacked the XX-XY crowd because they couldn’t control their impulse to commit assault and battery and chant about burning people alive. That’s normal for them. People who believe that there are two genders, XX and XY, are heretics, deserving of being “burned alive,” or at least tossed out of the game after paying for a ticket.

The incident has gotten the attention of the Department of Justice, according to Fox News, where they’re reviewing Kruse’s information for possible civil rights violations. Excellent.

There’s more, however, because the Antifa mob connection at these MLS sporting events is strong, and the league knows it.

MLS banned symbols of violence such as pro-communist Iron Front flags (three arrows down), which Antifa adopted, and other Antifa imagery seen at Portland and Seattle MLS games in 2019 for a while, but later removed the ban when Portland and Seattle Antifa mobs got big mad. And, you know, when Antifa gets big mad, buildings coincidentally burn, and people get hurt. Ask Brandi Kruse.

The Timbers Army was more than a fan club for the Timbers. Some are Antifa members. And it’s happening at the Thorns games.

Here’s some 2025 imagery from independent reporter Andy Ngo that Antifa uses. This imagery is on the flags you see inside the games.

MLS, therefore, has made a choice about who’s welcome in the stands. That’s a problem for them that the DOJ is likely going to consider.

Pierce County Sheriff Keith Swank has announced plans to “fight back” against the mob. He’s currently on the ballot in November over the Tacoma area effort to make the job of sheriff an appointed rather than elected position.

He’s calling on men and women to put on those XX XY shirts and stand up for free speech at MLS and WNBA games.

Because I know someone will complain that I haven’t said this out loud, allow me this prosaic, obligatory sentence: They showed up to support women’s sports at a women’s sporting event, and got thrown out for supporting women’s sports at a women’s sporting event.

Washington state voters will open their mail in ballots on their kitchen tables soon and will vote for only women being allowed to compete in women’s school sports. Washington Initiative 638. Vote Yes.

There it is.

The founders of Portland‘s Rose City Antifa have been on the lam for a while. They used to be seen at the Portland Timbers games as part of the Timbers Army with their comrades. They let their freak and Iron Front flags fly. Then they’d put on their balaclavas and beat the crap out of people who wanted them to stop burning stuff down.

On Thursday’s Adult in the Room Podcast, I talked with reporter Christian Peterson, who found the Portland Rose City Antifa founders living in Sweden.

You’ll never guess what they’re doing now. Hint: it has to do with soccer.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/25/2026 – 14:05