There’s been yet another major attack on Russia’s major Black Sea energy hub and port of Tuapse, after just a few days prior a drone wave had unleashed a fire so big it cold be seen from space, given the over 100-mile smoke plume that had spread over the Black Sea. 

In this latest overnight Ukrainian assault reported Monday, the drone attack killed least one person and resulted in more major fires, and now emergency crews are battling their second huge blaze at the site in under a week. There’s been a massive oil spill into coastal waters to boot.

Last week’s fires (which began with the last Thursday strike) had only just been extinguished at the Rosneft-owned refinery.

The prior drone wave had damaged residential areas, while this fresh attack has damaged a gas pipeline, a church and two schools – according to regional reports.

“Fire crews and rescue services are currently engaged at every site,” Tuapse Mayor Sergei Boyko said, confirming that several locations along the export terminal were struck.

Ukraine’s military took responsibility for the attack, as well as hits on two oil depots in nearby Crimea.

As for last week’s initial assault, Russian media says it resulted in a significant oil spill into the waters of the Black Sea, with TASS providing the following details:

• An oil product spill into the Black Sea waters occurred in Tuapse after the UAV attack carried out by Ukrainian forces on the night of April 16, according to the regional operational headquarters’ Telegram channel.
• On April 19, an oil slick was detected in the sea on a satellite image.
• The oil slick is located about one and a half miles from the port of Tuapse.
• The area of contamination of the Black Sea with oil products amounts to 10,000 square meters, according to the Telegram channel of the Krasnodar Region operational headquarters.
• Specialists have also contained the oil spill in the Tuapse River following the UAV attack on the night of April 16.
• A total of 750 meters of containment booms and five specialized oil recovery devices have been deployed, and an oil trap has been installed.

These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have however largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, given their frequency – to the point of being ‘routine’ (a grim reality).

Rosneft’s Tuapse Oil Depot and Export Facility in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, is currently ablaze, with dozens of tanks seen burning as thick black smoke pours into the sky, following a large-scale drone attack tonight by Ukraine against oil infrastructure across Southern Russia. pic.twitter.com/ZmtlLljYiI

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 20, 2026

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point. With the globe’s attention focused on the Iran war and blockaded Hormuz Strait, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations having long effectively collapsed, the war in eastern Europe is expected to grind on for some time to come.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

This might be the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby gave an important speech at mid-April’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group in which he urged the Europeans to step up their transition to something that he described earlier this year as “NATO 3.0”.

As was explained here, “The idea is that NATO should return to focusing on defending itself instead of overextending itself in the Indo-Pacific, West Asia, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere”, and the preceding hyperlinked analysis explains how it aligns with Trump 2.0’s policies.

Circling back to Colby’s speech, he demanded that “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent”, including arming Ukraine through the “Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List” (PURL) program in which the US plays the most significant role.

To that end, “The need to quickly rebuild European munitions stocks is paramount, as is the need to remove protectionist trade barriers that stifle the continent’s industrial potential.”

He added that “Developing a robust, capable, and integrated European defense industrial base cannot simply be an aspiration, but an absolute pre-requisite for credible deterrence and defense.”

Knowing how obsessed they are with Ukraine, Colby then threw in that “This will be critical to achieving an end to the war in Ukraine, on terms that support an enduring peace.”

He then called for more “deeds and a fundamental change in attitude” from them to “accelerate this transition to a ‘NATO 3.0’”.

Colby concluded that “If Europe rises to this moment – truly embracing primary responsibility for the defense of the continent in line with our vision of a rebalanced ‘NATO 3.0’ – we will all be stronger and more credible in defending our people and our national interests.”

He also ominously warned them midway through his speech that “I underline the criticality of [NATO stepping up to help secure the Strait of Hormuz per Trump’s expectation] for our relationship going forward.”

As was assessed here last month and was just implicitly reaffirmed by Colby, the US might speed up its planned military reprioritization away from Europe to the Americas and the Indo-Pacific if they reject Trump’s request by ending its significant PURL contributions before NATO can replace them. That would facilitate a full Russian victory in Ukraine, or at least spook the Europeans into fearing that this is inevitable if they don’t step up right after he cuts off arms again, thus getting them to do what he wants.

If some members of the bloc refuse to contribute while others do, then Trump might impose his reportedly considered pay-to-play model that was described here, which would remove “dissidents” from decision-making processes and withdraw the US’ Article 5 support from them. These punishments could also be imposed for refusing to spend 5% of GDP on defense. It’s very likely that Colby conveyed these punitive plans to his counterparts on the sidelines of the event even if he only hinted at them.

His urging of them to step up their transition to “NATO 3.0”, which is his brainchild, can therefore be considered the US’ final warning before it takes drastic action to punish those who continue to reject Trump’s demands.

Imposing the pay-to-play model is one form that this could take while cutting off arms to Ukraine once again could be another.

Both could also happen together.

It’s unclear what NATO as a whole will do, let alone its individual members, but it’s obvious that Trump is losing patience with them.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal officials arrested an Iranian woman at the Los Angeles International Airport on Saturday night for allegedly brokering weapons for the Iranian regime, officials said Sunday.

Shamim Mafi, 44, of Woodland Hills, California, is a green card holder, according to U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli in a post on X on Sunday.

Mafi was arrested at the Los Angeles airport “for trafficking arms on behalf of the government of Iran” and was charged in connection to the alleged selling “of drones, bombs, bomb fuses, and millions of rounds of ammunition manufactured by Iran and sold to Sudan,” he said.

“If convicted, she faces a statutory maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison,” Essayli wrote. “Mafi is an Iranian national who became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in 2016.”

She is scheduled to make her first court appearance on Monday in the U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, he said.

A criminal complaint filed by federal officials in connection to the case said that Mafi allegedly facilitated a contract valued at more than 60 million Euros (around $70 million) for the sale of Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drones manufactured for the regime that were commissioned to be sold to Sudan. She also coordinated a Sudanese delegation to Iran and received around $7 million in payments.

She was also accused of brokering the sale of 55,000 bomb fuses to the Sudanese Ministry of Defense, according to prosecutors, who stated that Mafi did not attempt to obtain a license from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control for the sales.

“During interviews with U.S. Customs and Border Control officers and the FBI, Mafi acknowledged communicating with an officer of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security,” prosecutors said.

Mafi also allegedly told the FBI that she could provide “extensive information about the Iranian financial system and money laundering channels” that the Iranian regime uses, according to the complaint.

The arrest was made as the U.S. government increases economic pressure on Iran in the wake of a U.S.-Israeli campaign that included thousands of strikes inside the country since Feb. 28. The Trump administration, which initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports last week, is sending a team to Pakistan Monday to hold more talks about a possible peace deal.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing on April 15 that the United States plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.

Bessent said the Trump administration has “told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.”

That same day, the Treasury Department said it placed new sanctions on an Iranian oil smuggling network, including around two-dozen individuals, companies, and vessels that were using front companies to evade previous U.S. sanctions.

It’s not clear if Mafi has legal representation.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

One year ago, in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, there was a flurry of discussion over who is more reliant on whom: the US on Chinese rare earth materials, or China on US ethane output (see “Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates” and “Who Blinks First? China May Exempt Tariffs On US Ethane & Other Goods“). Following the detente in the US-China trade war, that discussion was quietly relegated to the back of the line, however the time has come to bring it up again.

That’s because with the Iran war choking off traditional – and crucial – supplies, China is set to import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers desperately seek alternative feedstocks for their operations. 

Shipments of US ethane are expected to rise to an all-time high of 800,000 tons in April, according to Chinese consultant JLC, which would be around 60% higher than the monthly average. Some companies can switch to using ethane, helping them offset disruptions to the supply of naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethane is a natural gas liquid primarily used to produce ethylene, a key building block for plastics, and China depends almost entirely on the US for supply. The product became a political flashpoint between Beijing and Washington last year after the US tightened export controls during a bitter trade war.

Of course, this means that if Xi plays the rare earth cards in his upcoming summit with Trump, the US president can retaliate by simply shutting down China’s plastics industry. 

US ethane has become the preferred alternative for China’s ethylene makers due to stable supply and lower cost, said Shi Linlin, an analyst with JLC. Profits to produce ethylene from ethane was tenfold that of naphtha as of April 15, which has been inflated by crude-linked pricing, JLC said.

A ramp-up of downstream production capacity has also lead to a pickup in demand for the gas. A new ethane unit developed by Wanhua Chemical Group and a multi-feed cracker unit by Sinopec Ineos (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., have both supported higher imports this year, Shi added.

The International Energy Agency said last week that “petrochemical feedstocks display the most immediate effects of the war by far,” and that supply chains to Asia have been thrown into “disarray.” Japan has been forced to scramble for naphtha, tapping a range of suppliers including from the US and Africa.

In February, just before the war started, more than 50% of China’s naphtha imports and over 40% of its LPG purchases originated from Persian Gulf nations, according to Chinese government data. That supply chain has now been cut off for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. And while China may have a massive 1.5 billion oil barrels in strategic petroleum storage, it has no naphta or ethane, meaning its plastic industry is suddenly very much exposed. 

“The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has really highlighted how exposed Asia is to Middle Eastern naphtha,” said Amber Liu, the head of Asia Petchem Analytics at ICIS. This year, naphtha-fed crackers have accounted for about 57% of China’s ethylene capacity, compared with 16% for ethane, she said.

China’s ethane buying spree comes ahead of President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in mid‑May, and US energy is expected to be part of the agenda. It could feature prominently if the Iran war continues to drag on. 

Via The Cradle

The US has suspended all funding and security coordination with Iraq, and shipments of dollars the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), until a new Baghdad government acceptable to Washington is formed, Saudi state-owned Al-Hadath reported Monday.

The US is also conditioning continued security cooperation on the disclosure of those involved in the bombing of its embassy, the news channel added. 

Nevertheless, on Monday, the CBI released a statement rejecting the Al-Hadath report. Since 2003, a decision issued by Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) head Paul Bremer has required that all Iraqi oil revenues be paid into an account at the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving the US the ability to control how many US dollars are returned to the CBI.

From that point until today, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance has had to submit funding requests to the US Treasury, which then approves or denies them based on its own criteria.

This monthly transfer of US dollars, flown into Baghdad in pallets of hard cash, determines Iraq’s ability to pay for basic needs such as salaries, food, and medicine.

Whenever Washington believes that Iraq is not aligned with US regional goals, including enforcing economic sanctions on Iran, Baghdad’s major trading partner and a source of natural gas for electricity production, these fund transfers can be delayed or reduced.

The Coordination Framework (CF), the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties, has not yet selected a prime minister nearly five months after securing a plurality in the latest elections.

Former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, viewed by the US as “close” to Iran, was initially chosen to replace incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

However, while Washington wants to replace Sudani, it also opposes Maliki’s return to power.

“Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after Maliki emerged as a candidate for prime minister in January.

“Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq,” he said. If we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom. MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN!”

Maliki was the prime minister in 2014 when ISIS conquered large swathes of Iraq, including the country’s second-largest city, Mosul.

Maliki received much of the blame for the loss of nearly one-third of the country’s territory to ISIS, which enjoyed covert support from the US military and Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.

The CF, which won 185 of 329 seats in the last election, must nominate a prime minister by April 26.

People on the far-left and far-right of the political spectrum rarely find any issue upon which they intersect and share common ground.  However, both sides have an almost religious fear of data analytics company Palantir.  Their reasons might be different but their reactions are similar. 

On the political left, Palantir is seen as Donald Trump’s data gestapo.  They hate the company because it has created tools used by DHS and ICE to track down illegal immigrants using welfare and medical subsidies information.  It has also been an active ally in producing strategic analysis for Israel for the war in Gaza and Lebanon.  Leftists argue that Palantir is a “genocidal” corporation and a technological harbinger of “fascism”. 

On the other side, libertarians view Palantir as the All Seeing Eye of Sauron – A precursor to total AI surveillance of the population.  They view former CEO Peter Thiel’s presence in the Trump Administration as a negative influence.  Other conservatives argue that the company’s relationship to Israel and its ties to the Trump Administration are more proof that the Israelis run the world. 

Palantir has recently posted a sort of manifesto, a list of values or principles linked to CEO Alex Karp’s book “The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, And The Future Of The West”.  Many of the ideas presented run more in line with libertarian or conservative principles, but they also deviate into areas that will surely ruffle feathers and elicit distrust.  At the very least, Palantir presents a platform for debate about the future and the growing influence of digital technology on politics and war.  

Because we get asked a lot.

The Technological Republic, in brief.

1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation.

2. We must rebel…

— Palantir (@PalantirTech) April 18, 2026

The first thing to note is that Palantir seems to be openly advocating for American exceptionalism, which, in an era of far-left multiculturalism and open borders socialism, is a positive.  One could question how far the company actually wants to take this exceptionalism?  Are we talking about America first, strong national borders and a defined cultural identity?  These things are mentioned positively by Karp in his book. 

But, there are also tinges of a dream; a dream of American empire.  Again, this is a vision that is antithetical to libertarians and leftists alike, for different reasons.  Leftists want to see America (and western culture in general) destroyed and replaced with a new multicultural world order.  Libertarians (and some conservatives) want to see the US cut itself off completely from international affairs and foreign entanglements. 

Leftists are malicious in their goals and libertarians are unrealistic in their goals, but is an American empire really the answer to disrupting and defeating the liberal cabal which is causing so much decay in the west?  Once we get past our initial distaste of the concept of hegemony, the idea deserves a fair debate.  We have already seen the true intentions of the progressive elites; so what should we do to stop them? 

By extension, Karp in his book also addresses the inherent rot of the progressive Utopian vision and rails against DEI, woke ideology and the moral relativism of the political left.  He laments the erosion of a shared American/Western identity due to multiculturalism and “deconstructionist” influences since the 1960s.

He argues, though, that the solution to this weakening of moral and cultural structures requires technological ambition and global leadership.  He calls for a purposeful, unapologetic national project centered on hard power.  This is not going to make woke leftists with notions of a worldwide communist system happy.  It’s certainly not going to inspire any approval from small government activists or anarchists. 

The Lord Of The Rings comparisons and “One Ring” memes will be rampant.      

Another interesting takeaway is Palantir’s call for “Universal Service” instead of a volunteer military.  This simply sounds like a return to the draft, though Karp’s rationale suggests that universal service would also require universal risk.  In other words, if the elites (along with anyone from the general population) can be sent into combat, then maybe there would be far less war in the future and far more respect for the political process.  

How this would be enforced, though, is the key question.  As history shows us, the elitist class has a knack for excusing itself from the risks associated with the wars they often start.    

When examining Palantir’s social and political concepts, one is actually reminded of the government depicted in Robert Heinlein’s book “Starship Troopers”, which is portrayed as almost “fascist” in the 1997 movie but is actually written by Heinlein as a limited representative democracy based on merit.  In other words, only the people who participate in military service and prove their merit are allowed to be citizens, to vote and to run for public office. 

This, of course, would end the idea of inherent rights.  That said, there is ample evidence that some subsections of the population simply do not deserve the right to vote, because of stupidity, suicidal empathy or sheer insanity.  This sounds like a shocking concept today, but make no mistake, this will be a very serious debate in the near future as the liberal order continues to lead the west into self destruction. 

Finally, Palantir assigns an almost omnipotent value to Silicon Valley, AI and software’s role in the future of society.  From crime reduction to warfare to cultural preservation, Karp asserts that AI will save the west.  This is highly questionable. 

AI has proven to be a valuable tool for data analysis, but the actual industrial, social and scientific benefits have been few and far between.  The research advantages are somewhat defined, but AI’s greatest strength is clearly in mass surveillance and potentially in automated weaponry.  These are prospects which almost no American is keen to applaud (we’ve all read 1984 and seen the “Terminator” films).          

At bottom, Karp and his associates at Palantir might be sincere in their goal of defeating the leftist agenda and preventing the collapse of the west.  But, one has to ask if the ends justify the means?  Is it really possible to wield the power of a technocratic surveillance state for good?  A meritocracy that encompasses the government along with the citizenry is a noble vision, but not if people’s basic rights are erased in the process. 

The survival of the nation cannot be the only goal.  By itself, the nation is meaningless.  It must be worthy of survival, and this requires Americans to stay true to the principles that founded it.  Of course, when faced with an existential war in which the enemy operates from within to sabotage the society and destroy its principles through insurgency, bending the rules might also be necessary.                

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Seasonally lower demand ahead of the peak summer driving season and the continued turbulence in the Middle East could extend the violent oil price swings for months ahead, the top executive of oil trader Gunvor has told the Financial Times.

“It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of,” Gary Pedersen, chairman and CEO of Gunvor Group, told FT in an interview published on Monday.

“Frankly, it could be very choppy,” commented on the oil market Pedersen, who took over the top job at one of the world’s biggest physical oil trading groups after a management buy-out in December 2025.

Before the big shake-up at the group, Gunvor was accused by the U.S. Treasury Department of being a Kremlin puppet and was denied a license to take over the international operations of Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil, which the United States sanctioned last autumn.

The recent violent swings in oil futures prices were partly due to what Gunvor’s new head Pedersen attributed in the FT interview to a “masterclass” in political messaging from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Oil futures prices have sold off sharply several times in recent weeks following various comments from President Trump that a deal with Iran is imminent or the war is “very close to over”.

But oil futures markets haven’t fully priced in the major disruption to physical supply that has crashed with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the severely constrained Middle Eastern crude and fuel supply.

Physical crude supplies remain very tight as buyers across the world scramble for replacement of the oil from the Middle East, Gunvor’s Pedersen told FT.

In a sign that buyers are rushing to lock in supply, empty supertankers have left Asia en route to the U.S. via the Cape of Good Hope in one of the biggest queues of vessels ever seen at sea—ships sent to load U.S. crude.

Well before Mark Carney was elected as Canada’s Prime Minister in the wake of numerous scandals surrounding Justin Trudeau, critics noted that the candidate represented a far greater threat to Canada’s freedom largely because he is far more devious than Trudeau ever was. 

Carney is a central banker and high level World Economic Forum globalist well acquainted with the liberal “Reset” agenda, and it is no mistake that he has taken control of Canada at a time when European elites are pushing for an economic and geopolitical separation from the US.  The plan is obvious – To isolate the US in an effort to stop the spread of conservative and nationalist movements throughout the west.

In other words, the globalists/leftists are trying to build a new empire in a last-ditched scramble to prevent their liberal order from fading away.  Carney pretends as if they are breaking from the old system and starting something new by “calling out” the US.  In reality, it was the US that broke from the liberal system and refused to “go along to get along”. 

It was the US that refused to conform to the multicultural agenda, open borders, ESG and DEI politics, the transgender cult and the indoctrination of children with socialist and LGBT ideology, not to mention the fact that so many foreign nations have been feeding off US taxpayer dollars for decades through institutions like USAID.

Vast numbers of their own citizens are rebelling against liberal governments.  Movements to stop the multicultural agenda and mass immigration are gaining momentum. Right-wing political parties are quickly growing, inspired by conservative success against the woke cult in the US.   

The liberals are circling the wagons, and it would seem that Canada is meant to play a key role in this “new order”.  Prime Minister Mark Carney has been escalating his anti-US rhetoric since he entered office while threatening to build closer economic partnerships with hostile foreign entities like the CCP in China. 

As we asked after the Liberal Convention in Montreal, are Canadians being primed for an open conflict with the US?  The rhetoric coming from the nation’s liberal government is sounding increasingly aggressive, and not just in terms of economic separation.  In his latest “address to The nation”, Carney doubled down on his militant position, citing the history of Canada (including the War of 1812) as an ongoing battle against a “predatory” US.

It’s fascinating to see a globalist like Carney try to paint the US defense against European influences as if it this was an act of war against Canada (which did not become a country until 1867).  The war of 1812 was instigated by the British Empire after their Royal Navy interfered with US trade, stopping American merchant vessels on the high seas and kidnapping men they claimed were British subjects.  They then forced these American citizens to fight in their war against the French.

Estimates of kidnapped Americans range from 9,000–15,000 between 1793 and 1812. The 1807 Chesapeake-Leopard affair, where a British warship fired on a U.S. Navy frigate and seized sailors, nearly sparked war at the time and became a major flashpoint.  Finally, the British engaged in arming and instigating an insurgency among the native Indians in the Great Lakes region in order to terrorize US settlements. 

Canada was a controlled region of the elitist empire back then, just as it is today.

There is no US invasion of Canada today, but Carney is painting a narrative as if this is an imminent threat.  US tariffs have shaken Canada to its core.  Over 75% of the country’s exports are sold in US markets.  Their trade proximity made Canada one of the wealthiest nations in the world per capita and gave them one of the richest middle class populations in 2014-2015.  However, extreme-left wing policies have ruined Canada’s economic advantage. 

This was not the Trump Administration’s doing, it was their own doing.  Trump’s opposition to Canada is partly economic (Trump wants more trade parity), but it is also predominantly ideological.  They are, essentially, a woke/globalist enclave looming on the US border and it is clear that they intend to act as a foothold for the elites in North America. 

Carney’s rhetoric only reinforces the suspicion that there is an agenda afoot to isolate the US.  The problem is that Canada is already suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis, with inflation, high taxes and housing shortages crushing their middle class.  The threat is so great that provinces like Alberta are seriously considering secession.  Furthermore, there is no trade network on Earth that can possibly replace the highly lucrative arrangement Canada has had with the US. 

The Prime Minister’s efforts to stoke “national unity” among Canadians by painting the US as the “big bad wolf” is actually setting them up for disaster.   

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. officials broke ground for a New World Screwworm (NWS) sterile fly production facility in Texas to combat the flesh-eating parasites, which have spread across Mexico and pose a significant threat to America’s livestock, wildlife, and public health.

Located in Moore Air Base, Edinburg, the facility “is being built with an aggressive timeline designed to quickly expand the nation’s sterile fly production capacity,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in an April 17 statement.

Initial operations are set to start from November 2027, hitting production of 100 million sterile flies per week. “Construction continues immediately beyond initial operations to scale full production capacity to 300 million sterile flies per week,” the department added.

NWS female flies lay eggs on orifices or wounds of warm-blooded animals, which later hatch into larvae. The larva burrows deep into wounds, feeding on the host’s flesh.

The wound grows larger as more eggs are hatched and more larvae feed into the flesh, with the animal eventually dying. A single female fly can lay up to 3,000 eggs in its lifetime. Large swarms of the parasites coming in from Mexico pose a significant threat to America’s livestock industry.

Currently, the closest active cases to the U.S.-Mexico border have been reported in the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, located less than 70 miles from the border.

Swarms of NWS flies can be countered by releasing sterile male flies into the group. When male flies mate with females, they end up laying unfertilized eggs. Over time, the swarm diminishes, warding off the threat.

In its recent statement, USDA said it already produces sterile flies at a facility in Panama that outputs 100 million insects per week. Moreover, the agency has invested $21 million into a Mexican facility, which is set to become operational this summer.

The Moore Air Base facility, with its maximum output of 300 million sterile flies per week, boosts America’s efforts to counter the NWS threat.

The groundbreaking ceremony was led by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, and commanding general of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Lieutenant General William H. “Butch” Graham. USDA and USACE have cut red tape, secured expedited procurement, and eliminated other barriers to get the facility built.

“Breaking ground on this facility marks a major investment in safeguarding America’s livestock and the producers who feed this nation. This puts NWS sterile fly production in American hands, so we do not have to rely on other countries for the best offensive measure to push screwworm away from our borders,” Rollins said.

“The New World Screwworm threatens the health of our herds, the stability of rural economies, and the resilience of our supply chain. President Trump and his entire cabinet is committed to leveraging every resource necessary to contain this pest, protect American agriculture, and ensure the long-term security of our food supply chain.”

As of April 2, the United States has imposed restrictions on the import of live animals—cattle, horses, and bison—from Mexico due to NWS parasites.

In addition to animals, NWS is also known to infect humans in rare cases.

According to an April 14 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, multiple such cases have been reported from outside the United States.

“In 2023, Panama and Costa Rica identified an outbreak of NWS. Since that time, all countries in Central America and Mexico, where NWS was previously controlled, have identified cases in animals and people,” CDC said.

“As of April 14, 2026, these countries have reported nearly 168,000 NWS cases in animals and more than 1,700 cases in people.”

As for the United States, one confirmed NWS infection was found in a person who returned to the country from El Salvador.

New World Screwworm infection in humans is generally non-fatal if discovered early and treated.

However, if not caught early and treated, infestations can lead to extensive tissue damage and long-lasting severe pain in the case of nerve damage. Moreover, if the larvae burrow into vital organs, it can result in complications.

Symptoms in humans include pain, wound bleeding, foul-smelling odor around the infected site, and lack of natural healing, with the individual prone to sense the movement of larvae in the wounded area.

The CDC clarified that NWS flies have not been detected in the United States and that there is “no immediate risk of infestation to people.”

Last week, Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney laid out a detailed roadmap for clients on how autonomous vehicles could reshape America’s highways through the 2030s, with a particular focus on “the impact of AI on profit pools.”

In a separate report, Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang covered the rapid expansion of China’s robotaxi fleet, highlighting how both superpowers now appear to be locked in a race to automate roads and highways. 

“We expect a strong ramp up of robotaxis in China, with the robotaxi fleet in China growing from 5k in 2025 to 14k in 2026E (+195% YoY),” Chang began the note.

He pointed out that this update on China’s robotaxi and robotruck fleet indicates that “Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even.”

“We are raising our robotaxi forecasts for 2025-2035E by 7%-25%. By 2035E, robotaxis should account for 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles,” Chang said.

The report also introduces forecasts for overseas robotaxi and robotruck markets, highlighting international expansion as an increasingly important revenue driver for Chinese companies, including WeRide, Pony AI, and Baidu.

Chang forecasts that robotrucks could emerge as a long-term growth market, with China’s fleet rising from 8,000 in 2026 to 760,000 by 2035.

The overall outlook for AV fleets in China suggests rapid deployment, growing fleet density, and broader global scaling. The analyst noted their stock plays on this emerging trend: robotaxi and robotruck players include WeRide (Initiation), Pony AI, Didi, and Baidu.

Circling back to Goldman analyst Delaney’s report on the U.S. robotaxi market last week. He noted that the market is set to top $19 billion by 2030, up from a prior forecast of $7 billion, and continue rising to $48 billion by 2035.

Taken together, the two reports suggest the AI race is no longer confined to data centers and chip stacks. It is now moving into the physical world, where autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, and AI-powered freight networks are emerging as the next major frontier between the two superpowers. On a side note, these AI-powered vehicles can be dual-use and will eventually end up on modern battlefields.

Professional subscribers can read the full China Robotaxi and US Robotaxi notes at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.