Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

When you go to a gun store to buy a new gun, you can expect a few things to happen.  First, some paperwork.  Second, you can expect to have to pass a background check before leaving with your gun.  And third, you can expect that the gun store will keep a record of your purchase for as long as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (“ATF”) requires.  After all, that is how the government traces crime guns back to their original purchasers.

But what you might not expect is an FBI agent receiving a ping that you – yes, you – just successfully bought a gun.  And you might be surprised to learn that this agent has been receiving notifications of your purchases for months – or years.

Of course, such a surveillance scheme would be flatly unconstitutional – not to mention a violation of several safeguards already codified in federal law.  Yet slowly but surely, the government has been building a record of the private collections of thousands of American citizens, even though federal law expressly prohibits that “any system of registration of firearms, firearms owners, or firearms transactions or dispositions” be established.

Of course, even though they are being monitored, these victims remain law-abiding, meaning the government has no probable cause to justify seeking a warrant authorizing such a search in the first place.

Now, Gun Owners of America has discovered that the FBI has been using its Second Amendment surveillance program not only to enforce federal law, but also to help California target owners of newly banned “assault weapons.”

FBI’s NICS Monitoring Scheme

When news first broke of the FBI and ATF’s joint “NICS Monitoring” surveillance scheme, the public was shocked.  As journalist John Crump reported in April of 2021, “monitoring of NICS isn’t for prohibited people,” but rather those who are eligible to purchase firearms but who law enforcement agents nevertheless suspect might commit a crime.

GOA learned that targets of NICS Monitoring – which exploits records in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (“NICS”) before they are deleted within 24 hours – never receive notice that their firearm transactions are being monitored.  Thus, there is no way to challenge the FBI’s surveillance.

In fact, in order to enroll a target for NICS Monitoring, an agent only needs to complete an internal request form. At no point does an agent seeking NICS Monitoring have to convince a judge (or anyone other than himself, really) that this surveillance comports with the Fourth Amendment.  Entirely usurpingly, then, the FBI’s abuse of NICS Monitoring is rampant.

Rampant Abuse of NICS Monitoring

After the NICS Monitoring scandal went public, GOA filed Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”) requests with the FBI and ATF seeking further records.  Naturally these agencies, the program’s biggest abusers, were less than forthcoming with evidence of their clandestine activities, and GOA ultimately had to file suit to compel production of documents.

The subsequent document productions were illuminating.  They revealed a pattern of surveillance abuse so pervasive that federal agents could obtain NICS Monitoring based on anonymous tips.

As GOA reviewed more documents and public scrutiny increased, more and more abuses came to light.  For example, in one case an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man who had purchased a shotgun during the George Floyd riots, on the theory that he “may use a gun for rioting.” 

In another case, an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man whose “reported wage earnings” did not “appear to supply the financial means to afford” firearms.  And in another case, ATF had a man monitored who merely “had a ‘habit’ of purchasing new guns, tinkering with them, losing interest, and subsequently selling them.”

Thus, it would seem that self-defense, having a savings account, and a tinkering hobby – although perfectly lawful activities – are justification to have one’s gun purchases surveilled indefinitely.

NICS Monitoring Is Unconstitutional and Unlawful

The FBI’s surveillance scheme violates the Second and Fourth Amendment rights of gun owners. 

The Founders never sanctioned governmental monitoring of Americans’ gun purchases.  Moreover, the Founders specifically required that all searches be reasonable, almost always meaning that they are based on warrants issued upon a finding of probable cause.  The FBI’s NICS Monitoring program respects neither right.

NICS Monitoring also violates a number of provisions of federal law.  In anticipation that the NICS system would be abused to track gun owners, Congress has mandated that the FBI destroy all NICS records of “approved” firearm transactions within 24 hours. 

The FBI’s copying and pasting of certain records out of the NICS system before they can be deleted clearly contravenes the 24-hour destruction requirement.

NICS Monitoring also violates the federal prohibition on the creation of registries of gun owners – a prohibition so important that Congress codified it twice: once generally, and once specifically with respect to NICS.

FBI Now Aiding State Gun Control Efforts

If the NICS Monitoring program’s history thus far was not troubling enough, GOA has made a shocking new discovery – that, since at least 2023, the FBI has been surveilling gun owners on behalf of anti-gun states.  And to make matters worse, the FBI’s surveillance involves firearm sales that are perfectly legal under federal law.

In one FBI NICS Monitoring submission, an FBI Special Agent from the agency’s Chicago field office cited the following suspected violations of California law to justify a sixth-month monitoring period:

“MFG/SELL/TRANS/ETC ASSAULT WPN (30600(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52509, FELONY 2; ILL POSS ANY ASSAULT WEAPON (30605(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52510. FELONY.”

Just how a federal background check approval would constitute evidence of unlawful state possession of an “assault weapon” within California, the agent did not say.  Nor did the agent seem to recognize that it is entirely possible to possess a firearm (or even have a residence) in a neighboring state and lawfully purchase and possess an “assault weapon” there without committing a California crime.

And regardless of California law, it is entirely unclear how it furthers the FBI’s mission to prosecute violent crime by monitoring gun purchases that are completely legal under federal law.

Tellingly, the FBI refused to release further details of its investigation into the California gun owner, asserting a so-called “privacy Glomar” as to those details.  In other words, the FBI ridiculously refuses to acknowledge the existence of redacted information that it has already produced.

Thus, we are left with more questions than answers:

• What is the FBI doing worrying about violations of California’s ban of pejoratively labeled “assault weapons”? 
• Is the enforcement of state gun control laws really an FBI priority, such that Second and Fourth Amendment rights are thrown by the wayside?

We hope FBI Director Kash Patel can answer these questions and dismantle this unlawful and unconstitutional program once and for all.

Authored by Terri Wu & Olivia Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tensions have been simmering between the United States and communist China as the two countries escalate tariffs on each other’s imports. Meanwhile, Beijing’s rhetoric has become increasingly confrontational.

In early March, the Chinese Embassy in Washington shared a social media post from its Foreign Ministry, repeating its message: “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

President Donald Trump has warned that, while the United States does not seek war with China, it is “very well-equipped to handle it.”

Trump has imposed an additional 20 percent tariff on all goods made in China, citing a national emergency on the continued trafficking of fentanyl—a deadly opioid that is 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine—into the United States.

To this day, China remains the primary source of fentanyl precursors, which are shipped to Mexico, where they’re manufactured into the illicit drug. It is then smuggled into the United States mainly via the southern border.

In response to Trump’s added tariff, Beijing imposed an additional 15 percent tariff on U.S. coal and natural gas and an extra 10 percent on agricultural equipment and pickup trucks.

The communist regime has also called the fentanyl epidemic the United States’ “own problem“ and has cast the U.S. tariffs as ”blackmail.”

Yuan Hongbing, a former law professor at Peking University in China who now lives in Australia, said the American opioid epidemic is far from the self-inflicted wound the CCP has suggested it is.

The Chinese regime has played a significant role in America’s fentanyl crisis, and blaming the United States for it has long been Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping’s strategy, Yuan told NTD, Epoch Times’ sister media outlet, in a recent episode of the Chinese-language program “Pinnacle View.”

Yuan, who has insider access to senior CCP leaders, said Xi has consistently given internal directives during both Trump’s first and second terms that Beijing must maintain the narrative that the drug crises in both Europe and the United States are not linked to China.

Yuan said the regime has also been directed by Xi to assert that China makes the chemical precursors legally, and that if they are converted into deadly drugs and smuggled into the United States or Europe, it is not China’s responsibility.

The China expert further stated that fentanyl is at the core of Xi’s bid to “take revenge” on the West. He said Xi blames the West for subjecting China to a century of humiliation as a result of the Opium Wars in the mid-19th century. During that time, China had to sign a series of unequal treaties that ceded Chinese territory and opened Chinese ports to foreign control.

“It is precisely due to Xi’s directives that we are now seeing a dramatic increase in both the production of fentanyl precursors in China and the export of these chemicals, fueling the ongoing fentanyl crisis in the United States,” Yuan said.

Fentanyl overdose deaths have become a national crisis, taking more than 200 American lives per day, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. In 2023 alone, about 75,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdose, a staggering 23-fold increase from 10 years ago.

Today, accidental drug overdoses are the leading cause of death among Americans aged 18 to 45. On a more positive note, the number of opioid-related overdose deaths decreased by more than 20 percent in 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The fentanyl crisis has become a key concern among American voters and has become one of the driving forces behind the dynamics of U.S.–China relations, said China expert Alexander Liao.

He said relations between Beijing and Washington have fundamentally changed. During the Biden administration, the two countries went through a diplomatic “ice age,” when senior-level official communication froze for approximately 10 months in 2022 and 2023. However, Liao believes the confrontation has now escalated to a new level.

“Whether it’s trade or other aspects, the United States and China have basically turned against each other,” Liao told The Epoch Times.

“Little noise but fierce action” is how he categorizes the current state between Beijing and Washington, in contrast to the “big arguments and little action” going on between the United States and Europe.

“The politics play differently between enemies and friends,” he said.

US Makes Perfect Enemy for Chinese Regime

Over the past decade, China saw significant economic growth. Its nominal GDP is now over three-quarters of that of the United States, according to data from the World Bank. When measured by purchasing power, China’s economy surpassed that of the United States in 2016.

Xi rose in the CCP ranks a few years before that and in 2013 took over its leadership.

According to Yuan, Xi’s communist nature drove him to immediately cash in on China’s economic strength to establish a foreign policy program, the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at expanding communist totalitarianism around the world.

Under the guise of infrastructure development, the $1 trillion geopolitical platform snatches up other countries’ natural resources, including critical minerals for computer chip production, and expands its use of their ports for its own civil and military purposes.

Read the rest here…

Indian oil refiners have started looking for alternative supplies of crude after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports if Moscow refuses to sign a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine.

Bloomberg reported that companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. were looking for oil cargoes from the Middle East, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean for May delivery in anticipation of tariff action.

India has emerged as one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude since the start of the war in Ukraine, with grades including Urals accounting for almost 40% of the nation’s imports last year. Refiners have enjoyed elevated profits due to the cheaper supplies, although that advantage has waned in recent months. China has also purchased bigger volumes since the invasion.

President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on all Russian oil, saying “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” in an interview for NBC.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil,” Trump elaborated.

The mechanism would be the same as the one Trump applied to Venezuela, slapping a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that continue buying crude from the South American nation.

Since the US is India’s top trading partner, under a scenario of “secondary tariffs” for buyers of Russian oil, it’s likely that the South Asian nation would look for alternative supplies, said Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore.

“Traditional sanctions have created enough uncertainty,” he said. “The idea of secondary tariffs only intensifies this uncertainty, given that it is a new tool. Buyers need to decide whether the advantages of picking up discounted crude outweigh the potential hit on its economy from additional tariffs.”

“The big question is, will these repeated shocks end up structurally reducing Indian appetite for Russian crude? I have my doubts, as long as the economics works,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “It’s a bluff, a bargaining ploy on the part of Trump. But refiners need to prepare, they can’t rely on hunches, no matter how bizarre and unlikely a supply threat.”

Such a tariff would be a considerable problem for India, whose dependence on imported crude hit an all-time high in the latest fiscal year. India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, according to oil ministry data released at the end of last month. This is up from 87.7% for the previous fiscal year.

Due to this dependence, India is particularly price-sensitive, which is why it stepped up its purchases of Russian oil following the barrage of Western sanctions directed at Russia’s energy industry. Russia is currently India’s biggest single oil supplier.

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice has filed federal charges against a suspect in connection with a firebombing attack on a Tesla dealership in Loveland, Colorado.

Cooper Frederick, 24, faces federal charges related to the March 7 attack, according to Attorney General Pamela Bondi, who announced the charges on Monday.

“I made it clear, if you take part in the wave of domestic terrorism, I’ve made it clear if you take part in the wave of domestic terrorism against Tesla properties, we will find you, arrest you, and put you behind bars,” Bondi stated. “Today, I’m proud to announce that the Department of Justice has unsealed federal charges against another Tesla attacker.”

Frederick, a Fort Collins resident, was initially arrested by Loveland Police on March 13 on multiple state charges, according to a City of Loveland news release. The charges included possession of explosives, second-degree arson, criminal mischief, and criminal attempt to commit a felony.

A fire erupted after an incendiary device was thrown at the Tesla building and landed between two vehicles. Several people inside the building were cleaning at the time and could have been injured, according to the news release, which stated a responding officer quickly extinguished the fire.

Larimer County Jail records show Frederick bonded out of jail on March 14.

Bondi stated in the same announcement that, following the latest charges, Frederick was re-arrested in Plano, Texas, following an investigation by the FBI.

Frederick’s arrest comes amid a wave of violent attacks against Tesla properties since CEO Elon Musk became head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the Trump administration.

Incidents have occurred in at least nine states since January, with targets including Tesla showrooms, vehicles, and charging stations.

According to a report by The Epoch Times, on March 18, two Cybertrucks were set ablaze at a Las Vegas repair center, and “Resist” was spray-painted on the building.

Over that incident, police arrested 36-year-old Paul Hyon Kim on March 27, charging him with 15 offenses, including arson and firearms violations. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Assistant Sheriff Dori Koren said Kim had self-proclaimed affiliations with far-left organizations, including Communist Party USA-affiliated groups and other movements.

In February, a suspect allegedly threw eight Molotov cocktails at a Tesla showroom in Salem, Oregon, while armed with a suppressed AR-15 rifle.

Additional attacks have also occurred in Charleston, South Carolina, and Austin, Texas.

“All of these cases are a serious threat to public safety. Therefore, there will be no negotiating. We are seeking 20 years in prison,” Bondi said.

In Canada, approximately 80 Tesla vehicles were also vandalized in Hamilton, Ontario, on March 19.

President Donald Trump has condemned the attacks on Tesla properties, suggesting perpetrators would face long sentences for their crimes.

“I look forward to watching the sick terrorist thugs get 20-year jail sentences for what they are doing to Elon Musk and Tesla,” he said in a March 21 post on Truth Social.

During a town hall event in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Sunday, Musk condemned the attacks.

“They’re burning Teslas and shooting up dealerships and calling for the death of the president and me … That’s somebody else’s car. Leave it alone,” Musk said during the livestreamed event.

A group called Tesla Takedown has organized protests at dealerships nationwide. On its website, the group states that “Elon Musk is destroying our democracy, and he’s using the fortune he built at Tesla to do it.” The group called for a Global Day of Action on March 29, which saw protests targeting Tesla around the United States and smaller-scale rallies in several European locations.

From NTD News

On Tuesday the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, claimed that they shot down another American MQ-9 Reaper drone while it was flying over Yemen.

“Our air defenses successfully shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone while it was carrying out hostile missions in the airspace of Maarib Governorate, using a suitable, locally made missile,” a Houthi military statement said.

The US military has not yet confirmed that it lost a drone, but if accurate this would mark the 16th US MQ-9 drone that’s been downed in the region, as the Houthis announced.

While the Pentagon has acknowledged the loss of several drones since conducting anti-Houthi operations over the course of the last year, it has not specified or confirmed each and every downing, only leaving its sporadic statements vague.

If the Houthis have really downed 16 Reaper drones at this point, this would amount to nearly $500 million in lost military hardware, considering each MQ-9 is commonly estimated to cost the US about $30 million. Houthis statements throughout the war going back to Oct.7, 2023 tend to be accurate.

Each MQ-9 Reaper drone costs the US about $30 million, so if the Houthis’ number is accurate, that means the US has lost $480 million worth of drones.

The Houthi statement further confirmed ongoing US military action targeting Yemen, describing that the US had in the last hours “launched a number of raids on various areas, resulting in martyrs, injuries, and damage to citizens’ properties.”

Meanwhile President Trump in his latest statements on the Yemen campaign asserted the Houthis have “been decimated” by the new waves of strikes which began on March 15.

Widely circulating Houthi video purporting to show the latest alleged drone downing…

❌The #Houthis have shot down another American #MQ9 #reaper drone worth over $30 million

This was reported on air by the representative of the Ansar Allah movement, Yahya Saria, on AI Masirah. pic.twitter.com/KZPX2G9XKk

— News.Az (@news_az) April 1, 2025

“Many of their Fighters and Leaders are no longer with us,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We hit them every day and night — Harder and harder. Their capabilities that threaten Shipping and the Region are rapidly being destroyed. Our attacks will continue until they are no longer a threat to Freedom of Navigation.”

Trump added: “The choice for the Houthis is clear: Stop shooting at U.S. ships, and we will stop shooting at you. Otherwise, we have only just begun, and the real pain is yet to come, for both the Houthis and their sponsors in Iran.”

The Iran-supported Yemeni militants have vowed to continue fighting so long as Israeli’s military is active in the Gaza Strip. So far there’s been no hint they’ll back down, even in the face of overwhelming US airstrikes.

Just before 4am local time, while much of the city was sleeping, Beirut was pounded by another large-scale Israeli airstrike, reportedly targeting a Hezbollah official who was among four killed in the attack. A woman was slain in the attack too, according to Lebanese health authorities.

Top floors of a multi-story building were decimated in the strikes on a southern suburb of Beirut. It reportedly killed the following, identified in AFP:

A source close to Hezbollah, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to brief the media, told AFP the strike killed Hassan Bdair, Hezbollah’s “deputy head for the Palestinian file” who was “at home with his family.”

While Al Mayadeen has described Bdair as a rank and file Hezbollah member, other regional sources have indicated he was a member of Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 as well as the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Israeli army subsequently said Tuesday that fighter jets “attacked a Hezbollah terrorist in the Dahiye area of ​​Beirut who had recently been directing Hamas operatives and had assisted them in attempting to carry out a serious attack against Israeli civilians in the immediate future.”

“We couldn’t see each other because of all the dust,” one eyewitness who lives across the street from the destroyed building told AFP, describing “a very big explosion,” followed by another.

“Not just one person is targeted — everyone in the country, from young to old has become the target,” another nearby Lebanese resident said.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has warned that war is returning to Lebanon and called on Israel to stop these attacks, which he said suggests Israel is seeking escalation.

“The Israeli raid on the southern suburb is a serious warning about the intentions lurking against Lebanon. Israel’s persistence in its aggression requires us to exert more effort to address Lebanon’s friends and rally them in support of our right to full sovereignty over our land … to prevent violations from abroad or infiltrators from within, who provide additional pretext for aggression,” Aoun said. 

Lebanese as well as regional journalists and the populace are outraged given the large airstrikes happened without warning, in the middle of the night and in a highly populated residential area…

As always, Israel claims it was targeting a Hezbollah member—its go-to excuse for war crimes. But once again, it acts in defiance of international law and above all accountability.

The truth: the building hit was a residential home in Hay Madi, a civilian neighborhood in… pic.twitter.com/pC4WMew9mc

— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) April 1, 2025

What’s more is that it happened on the Eid al-Fitr Muslim holiday marking the end of the Ramadan fasting period. Days ago rockets were launched on northern Israel from south Lebanon, which resulted in Israeli reprisal strikes. Hezbollah denied it was behind the launches, and the Lebanese government announced arrests of the culprits, in an apparent effort to stave off war.

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has had plenty to say since launching his podcast earlier this month with a splash, breaking from Democratic Party orthodoxy and agreeing with MAGA organizer Charlie Kirk that allowing biological males to compete in girls’ and women’s sports is “deeply unfair.”

In the last week alone, Newsom remarks have generated numerous headlines. On Thursday he signed an order aimed at helping Los Angeles expedite the rebuilding of utility and telecom infrastructure following the deadly and destructive January wildfires.

The same day, he attended a glitzy event with Vogue editor Anna Wintour and announced plans to substantially increase film and television tax credits to win back some of this business, though the proposal still needs legislative approval.

Despite overseeing the growth of California’s government to a record size during his tenure, Newsom claimed during a podcast episode with liberal commentator Ezra Klein to be “the original DOGE” because he opened an office of digital innovation in 2019. He blamed California’s housing affordability crisis on NIMBYism and anti-housing density people “comfortable with their backyards.”

While weighing in on these myriad issues, Newsom, a presumed contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, has notably remained silent on whether his remarks about transgender athletes playing in girls’ and women’s sports would prompt him to alter the state’s laws allowing the practice.

U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon made it more difficult for Newsom to remain on the fence Thursday. She sent the governor a letter warning him that he must comply with President Trump’s executive order banning biological males from competing in women’s sports or risk losing federal funding for schools across the state.

At least $8 billion in federal education money to California hangs in the balance, while California is running what legislative analysts cited as a $46.8 billion budget deficit last year.

“Your recent comments about male athletes playing in women’s sports – that it is ‘deeply unfair’ – came to the attention of my office this week,” McMahon wrote. “I’m writing on behalf of the U.S. Department of Education to request a clarification on your stance as governor of California, and to inquire as to your intention to encourage California public schools to comply with federal law on this issue.“

McMahon pointed to polls showing that an “overwhelming majority” of Americans believe men should not compete in women’s sports, and many citizens, she argued, are “confused” by “your office’s silence on the harms of substituting ‘gender identity’ for sex in other areas of school environment.”

“Allowing participation in sex-separated activities based on ‘gender identity’ places schools at risk of Title IX violations and loss of federal funding,” she asserted. “As governor, you have a duty to inform California school districts of this risk.”

McMahon ended her letter by asking Newsom to inform the department ‘whether you will remind schools in California to comply with federal law by protecting sex-separated spaces and activities” and to “assure parents that California teachers will not facilitate the fantasy of ‘gender transitions’ for their children.”

Charlie Kirk posted on X a copy of McMahon’s letter. Newsom spokeswoman Elana Ross did not respond to an inquiry about McMahon’s threat.

🚨🚨BREAKING: Education Secretary Linda McMahon has just formally WARNED California Governor Gavin Newsom to comply with federal law on prohibiting males in women’s sports and in other sex-separated spaces or else risk losing federal funding:

“Your recent comments about male… pic.twitter.com/jlP5aKXloX

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) March 27, 2025

The matter is all the more pressing because the California Assembly will be holding hearings Tuesday on two GOP-sponsored bills aimed at banning biological boys and men from girls’ and women’s sports, though neither is expected to gain traction in the Democratic super-majority-controlled body. Proponents of the measure are rallying girl athletes who back the measures to show up at the hearings with their parents and press the legislature for action.

“California parents are tired of sending their kids to a government school system that fails them in every basic academic metric but would rather use our kids for public experiments in radical ideology,” Lance Christensen, president of the conservative California Policy Partners, told RealClearPolitics. “One would think that the legislature would have better understood the message of this last election when parents-rights candidates won across the state.”

Christensen, a Republican who ran an unsuccessful campaign for superintendent of public instruction in 2022, was also referring to a separate clash Thursday between McMahon and Newsom.

McMahon announced that the department’s Student Privacy Office launched an investigation into California over its law barring public school teachers and administrators from informing parents when their children as young as six are gender-transitioning at school.

McMahon said the probe would review whether the California Department of Education was violating the Family Educational Rights Privacy Act, which gives parents the right to access their children’s educational data.

“Teachers and school counselors should not be in the business of advising minors entrusted to their care on consequential decisions about their sexual identity and mental health,” McMahon said. “That responsibility and privilege lies with a parent or trusted loved one.”

“It is not only immoral but also potentially in contradiction with federal law for California schools to hide crucial information about a student’s wellbeing from parents and guardians,” she added. “The agency launched today’s investigation to vigorously protect parents’ rights and ensure that students do not fall victim to a radical transgender ideology that often leads to family alienation and irreversible medical interventions.” 

On this score, Newsom’s spokeswoman took a shot at the Trump administration’s attempt to dismantle the Department of Education and countered that California schools are not in violation of federal law because their policy allows parents access to all students’ education records, including those dealing with name or gender changes.

“Parents continue to have full, guaranteed access to their student’s education records, as required by federal law,” Ross said in a statement. “If the U.S Department of Education still had staff, this would be a quick investigation – all they would need to do is read the law the governor signed.”

Last year, Newsom signed a bill that prevents schools districts from adopting policies requiring teachers and administrators to notify parents when their children start using different pronouns or identify as a different gender from what’s on their school record.  

Prior to the law, several California school boards reacted to state Department of Education guidance barring the disclosure to parents of their children’s gender transitions by either considering or voting for policies that would require schools to disclose these types of changes in identity regardless of the student’s consent.

As the fight has played out across the state, California Attorney General Rob Bonta has sued school districts in Chino and Placer County over their parental notification requirements. Chino Valley School District has pushed back, counter-suing state officials over the new law barring teachers and school administrators from informing parents when their children begin gender-transitioning in school.

“School officials do not have the right to keep secrets from parents, but parents do have the constitutional right to know what their minor children are doing at school,” Emily Rae, senior counsel at the Liberty Justice Center, said after filing the countersuit on behalf of Chino Valley.

Proponents of gender transition notification laws say parental rights protections derive from the Constitution’s 14th Amendment prohibition of a state’s laws depriving “life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.”

The Supreme Court has repeatedly recognized the diminished capacity of minor children and upheld limitations on important matters that significantly alter their lives, including their need for medical care or treatment. The high court has designated parents as the authorities that must make those decisions.

But in recent years, this longstanding doctrine has faced legal challenges. State and local officials have overruled parents when it comes to gender-transitioning medicines when one divorced parent disagrees with the other. In Montgomery County, Maryland, parents can no longer opt their children out of gender and sexuality curriculum in schools. Parents sued Maryland over the new policy. In January, the Supreme Court decided to take up the case.

At least one state, New Hampshire, reacted to the Trump administration threat by banning transgender athletes from participating in girls’ and women’s sports. Yet another, Maine, is standing its ground.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills and President Trump sparred over the issue last month during a meeting of governors at the White House. Trump, at the time, threatened to pull federal funding from Maine if the state fails to comply with his executive order barring transgender athletes from sports.

“We’ll see you in court,” Mills retorted. 

The U.S. Education Department has since concluded that Maine violated the Title IX antidiscrimination law and could face Justice Department prosecution. The U.S. Health and Human Services department gave Maine’s Department of Education and its Principals’ Association, which oversees high school sports in the state, 10 days to comply by banning the athletes.  

School officials in Maine said Thursday they would not do so, citing state law, including the Maine Human Rights Act.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past few years you’re probably familiar with the controversy surrounding the “wokification” of Disney and their constant attempts to inject leftist activism into their media products.  Disney’s cult-like dogma played a considerable role in the rise of the anti-woke movement and ultimately the fall of Hollywood, which is now reeling from an avalanche of box office failures.

One such predictable failure (perhaps the ultimate predictable failure) is the woke Snow White live action remake starring a veritable unknown actress by the name of Rachel Zegler.  To summarize why the public despises Zegler and this film so much, let’s backtrack to 2021 when Zegler was announced for the beloved role.

First, the movie is called Snow White.  It’s based on a centuries old German fairy tale which was eventually written down and published by the Brothers Grim in 1812.  These tales are an integral part of Medieval European heritage.  Though she is part Polish, Zegler is certainly not “snow white”.  The casting choice was viewed by many fans of the original animation as a deliberate attempt to race swap yet another classic European character and troll western audiences with DEI.

If it was minority folk figure being replaced, the response from leftists would be rabid.  But, it’s okay as long as the characters are white.

Then there was the public complaints of an angry little actor by the name of Peter Dinklage, who praised Disney for hiring a Latina to play Snow White but argued that hiring real life dwarfs to play the Seven Dwarfs would be “backwards” and demeaning.  Thus, in his burst of pint-sized outrage, Dinklage destroyed any chance for seven actors with dwarfism to make a name for themselves on the big screen. 

Then there was the leaked production photos of the “Seven Dwarfs”, who were played by a laughably diverse cast of normal sized people.  Disney initially lied about the images and claimed they were “Fake and not from our production…”  As it turned out, the images were real.  The internet collectively laughed and gasped simultaneously at how bad and woke the movie was clearly going to be.

This is the sort of blunder that occurs when you try to make every “marginalized” activist group happy. 

The biggest handicap for the film, however, was Rachel Zegler’s big mouth.  The actress hammed it up in interviews, disparaging the original Snow White as a “weird” relic of the patriarchal past and asserted that the remake would be a representation of empowerment for women who “don’t need no man”. 

Then there was Zegler’s steady stream of anti-Trump and anti-conservative rants on social media.  A classic mistake of modern Hollywood actors; thinking that the public has any interest in their political insights.  Her comments hurt the film’s chances even more.  Disney was eventually forced to delay the release for a year, claiming that it was “because of the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike”.  

The final product turned out to be a travesty, as everyone expected.  Snow White’s bizarre DEI casting, set in a Medieval European landscape, takes the audience out of the story and reminds them that they are watching propaganda.  The overall structure and changes to the original are ill conceived and poorly though out.  The movie has hit a 40% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a 1.5/10 on IMDB.  It is currently expected to lose at least $140 million at the box office, though this may not include marketing costs.

Despite this undeniable defeat, once again proving that if you “Go woke” you will also “Go Broke”, the Hollywood elites are proclaiming Zegler’s role a success.  Why?  Because it served the interests of progressive messaging, even if no one watched the movie.  

Variety argues that Zegler is now an “icon” simply because “everyone is talking about her”, playing on the old fallacy that all press is good press.   This piece was published after Variety posted a more honest assessment of Zegler’s behavior, blaming her negativity as contributing to Snow White’s demise.

Rachel Zegler: “People will wait in line despite my flaws.”

Welcome back to reality princess.. Snow White was a complete flop
pic.twitter.com/QaPHZtjqnL

— aka (@akafaceUS) March 24, 2025

Some celebrities have also jumped to Zegler’s defense, and activists suggest that her behavior had nothing to do with the film’s poor reception.  In other words, progressives  continue to deny that wokeness is box office poison.  All the evidence to the contrary will not sway them.  

Snow White only matters because it is a symbol of the culture war and the political left’s refusal to accept reality.  They were warned for years that the movie would implode, but they would not listen.  Now that it’s undeniable, they once again shift gears and make the controversy about the “victimization” of another loud-mouthed lead actress.

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

In my last Fourth Turning article, a few days before the presidential election, I stated Trump would win in a landslide, unless the Deep State pulled some outrageous stunt to steal it, like they did in 2020. Their cheating machines were unable to overcome the dementia dummy effect and running a vacuous cackling moron DEI candidate as Trump’s opponent. I also thought the ingrained opposition would use all their vast ill-gotten financial resources to pay for violent protests, if Trump won. The gutting of USAID has defunded the domestic terrorists and made their protests pathetic.

Trump’s overwhelming victory in the election and defeat of the illegal lawfare attacks from his Deep State enemies defused their ability to keep him from being inaugurated. And boy did he hit the ground running. His first 7 weeks in office have been a tornado of executive orders, shockingly bold cabinet picks, mass firings of government drones, deportations of illegals, tariff wars, threats to take over Greenland and Canada, confrontations with world leaders, war on DEI and woke bullshit policies within the government and at universities funded by the government, and unleashing Musk and his DOGE team on the Federal bureaucracy.

The dynamics of this Fourth Turning have begun to crystalize in my mind with the re-ascension of Trump to the most powerful position in the world, and now willing to wield his power on a far grander scale then he did during his first term. The previous two Fourth Turning presidents, during the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning and the Civil War Fourth Turning, acted like dictators, wielding their authoritarian powers, using war as the excuse for overstepping their Constitutionally granted authority.

Ruling by executive order has now become commonplace, as our Republic has degenerated into a corporate fascist totalitarian state where the spoils have been shared by the privileged few, while the rest of us have been propagandized into subjugation, depravity, debt, and debasement. Trump has assumed a dictatorial attitude, with the rationale that he must do so to defeat the evil forces of the Deep State, and more than 50% of the population is enthusiastically onboard.

There is generally no middle ground when it comes to Donald Trump. You either despise him and scream he is literally Hitler, or you worship him as the savior of America, leading us to a glorious renaissance. Personally, I find myself in the middle ground, based on what he has done, rather than what he says. I was disappointed in his first term, even though he did a number of good things. His personnel choices were awful, putting Barrett on the Supreme Court was a terrible selection, and locking down the country while making a deal with the devil (Fauci & Pfizer) to produce a toxic vaccine destined to kill far more than it saved, continues to be a massive blemish on his record. But what is done is done. Even the most skeptical cynic has to admit, there have been several positive developments in Trump’s second term.

The issue which had biggest impact in getting Trump elected was the border and the democrat plot to destroy America by funding the invasion of America by 3rd world dregs. The dementia dummy president was given ice cream and told to stand aside by his Obama handlers, while millions of lowlifes poured across our southern border. Trump’s selection of Tom Homan as border czar was brilliant, and the actions taken to secure the border thus far have produced dramatic results. We need millions more deportations, but we are off to a good start.

Trump learned his lesson from the first term, when he surrounded himself with Deep State backstabbers, while failing to purge the departments of his enemies. He has appointed highly competent outsiders into most of the key cabinet positions. The DC bureaucracy is being gutted as we speak, if not by his appointees, then by Musk and his DOGE army. Purging the swamp of his bureaucratic enemies is essential to achieving progress. And purging the judiciary of far-left apparatchiks on the payroll of Soros must be next.

There truly is $2 trillion in spending that can be cut. Going back to 2019 spending levels, before the “Covid emergency spending” should be the goal. The amount of corruption, bribery, and fraud within the Federal government is astronomical, and Musk and his DOGE unit should be applauded for lifting the rocks and shining a light on these maggots. DOGE claims to have saved $130 billion thus far. That sounds like a lot, and it is. But some perspective will reveal the true nature of our predicament.

The Federal government spends $130 billion per week on average. We add over $5 billion to the national debt every single day. This tsunami of deficit spending is a perpetual uniparty supported machine. The continuing resolution jammed through by Trump and his minions increases spending. DOGE is great PR for the Trump army, and it is the perfect bogeyman for his enemies. But, it is unlikely to materially alter the course we are on. The national debt was $36.2 trillion when Trump assumed control. There is no doubt it will exceed $44 trillion before he leaves office.

There are 135 million full-time workers in the U.S., and approximately 18 million of them work for the government. Many millions more in private industry are dependent upon government contracts to sustain them. I am 100% onboard gutting government bureaucracy. But there will be consequences. Data from Washington DC is already showing a plunge in home prices and surge in unemployment. The combination of layoffs, reduced government outlays, and tariff impacts will likely push us into recession during 2025.

Taking the pain in year one of his administration may be Trump’s game plan, with an anticipated strong recovery in the 2nd half of his presidency. The question is whether the recession will deflate the everything bubble – stocks, bonds, real estate, and crypto, or just be a bump in the road to long term prosperity. With valuations in all asset classes at nosebleed heights, I expect a major correction across the board. Whether a recession and correction turn into a depression and crash will depend upon the behavior of our leaders.

At each of these great gates of history, eighty to a hundred years apart, a similar generational drama unfolded. Four archetypes, aligned in the same order – elder Prophet, midlife Nomad, young adult Hero, child Artist – together produced the most enduring legends in our history. Each time the Grey Champion appeared marked the arrival of a moment of “darkness, and adversity, and peril,” the climax of the Fourth Turning of the saeculum. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

There has been much debate since Trump descended on the escalator in 2015 at Trump Towers as to whether he was one of the Grey Champions of this Fourth Turning. I had my doubts after the 2020 election was stolen, but his re-ascension to power in 2025 leaves no doubt he is the lightning rod for what will take place in the final stages of this Crisis period. Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping are all from the Prophet generation and have assumed the mantle of Grey Champions for their nations.

How these men interact over the next several years will determine the course of this Fourth Turning. Thus far, the skirmishes in Ukraine and the Middle East have been relatively contained. Fourth Turning climaxes have been historically bloody and devastating. If China invades Taiwan, North Korea invades South Korea, or the EU pushes Putin too far, that will surely spur mass destruction and mass casualties on a grand scale. And with nuclear technology far more advanced since WWII, the possibility of planetary destruction is not a zero possibility.

Fourth Turnings can have multiple regeneracies with the first being when the financial system was artificially propped up by the Fed and Treasury in 2009, making the financial system far less stable over the long-term and setting the stage for the grand collapse. The regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event.  But it does have to mark the beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency.

Trump’s actions during his first 7 weeks back in office most certainly classify as a regeneracy, through executive orders, mandates, and decisive actions, designed to undo all the purposeful destruction incurred under Biden. The reaction of his enemies, using lawfare, their media mouthpieces, and judicial roadblocks, has ratcheted the anger and vitriol within the country to a boiling point.

The blowback from the Trump/Musk agenda of slashing Federal bloat, firing government drone bureaucrats, dismantling corrupt, treasonous organizations hidden within the Federal bureaucracy (USAID), eliminating ineffective departments, like the Department of Education, and trying to root out corruption and waste, has been predictably violent. The burning of Tesla dealerships, coordinated anti-Musk messaging from the captured mainstream media, and artificial protests across the nation are all funded by Soros and his ilk, just as the fake BLM protests were used to destroy Trump’s first term.

Every executive order designed to rectify the purposely created border invasion, cut waste, fraud, and corruption within the Federal government, along with the purging of agencies of his enemies, has been met with judicial obstruction by judges placed in positions of power by Soros and the lawfare army created by Obama and his minions. The term Constitutional Crisis has been overused, but I believe we are headed for a clash that will not resolve itself through the existing legal system.

The judiciary can no longer be expected to interpret the law in an unbiased manner based upon the Constitution. When Trump decides to ignore the rulings of this plethora of corrupt judges, what happens next? The so-called judges thwarting Trump at every turn are not interpreting the law, they are exercising activist political prerogatives which they have been paid off by Soros and his lawfare organizations to sponsor.

From my perspective, the world has become more chaotic and confusing on a daily basis since Trump’s election. From a Fourth Turning perspective, this is to be expected. The Crisis never resolves itself through compromise or an agreed upon peaceful resolution. The cascade into a spiraling downward implosion of trust in institutions, politicians, media talking heads, corporate titans, and central bankers is leading the country and world towards a catastrophic debt collapse which will plunge the world into a global depression.

Whether this has been pre-planned by the ruling oligarchs to invoke the Great Taking, the new world order, and CBDCs, is still a question in my mind. Is Trump a willing participant in this diabolical plan or a well-intentioned patsy they are manipulating with his MAGA army to ensure their plan goes off without a hitch?

What is clearly evident to me, is the globalist cabal ruling elite are absolutely trying to thwart Trump and Putin’s peace efforts in resolving the Ukraine war. They are using every opportunity to provoke Putin into starting WW3 with NATO and forcing the U.S. to honor our treaty obligations. Their desperation is obvious, as the discredited and highly unpopular stooges governing France, the U.K., Canada and Germany make unhinged statements and threats on a daily basis, threatening war with Russia.

Putin is the only statesman, operating in a rational manner, and attempting to negotiate a sane outcome to a conflict initiated by U.S. neocons in 2014. This global crisis will just be exacerbated by the brewing Constitutional crisis being precipitated by the Deep State operatives and their judicial machinations, designed to force Trump into initiating a violent response to Soros and his bought off treasonous judicial cronies.

Trump’s rhetoric about a glorious new era of economic nirvana, built upon tariffs, lower taxes and energy independence sounds great, but it is nothing but pie in the sky pipe dreams. It’s too late. Talk about balancing the budget is nothing but bloviating bullshit. Trump and his economic gurus have no intention of balancing the budget, because doing so would lead to the worst depression in history.

This entire Ponzi economic house of cards depends upon the issuance of $6 billion of debt PER DAY. Our fake positive GDP growth data depends on the government spending $5 trillion of printed fiat (17% of GDP) per year on wars, welfare, and waste, with the ignorant brainwashed masses spending $19 trillion of money they don’t have (using credit cards) on shit they don’t need making up 68% of total GDP.

Meanwhile, financial markets are at historically high (and dangerous) levels, home prices are at all-time highs, real inflation has been pushing 10% for the last five years, credit card, auto and student loan debt are at record levels, and most importantly, gold continues to hit new record highs every day. The stock market is wobbling like it normally does as a precursor to a crash. Home sales are at decade lows as sky high prices and higher mortgage rates have made it impossible for most people to buy.

Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are surging. Millions of people who haven’t made a student loan payment in years now have to pay up. Their credit scores are crashing due to non-payments. Gold surges when the financial system shows signs of collapse. All the ingredients are present for a catastrophic explosion, just waiting for a spark to ignite the volatile mixture. At this point, the financial system is so unstable and fragile that an otherwise inconsequential grain of sand added to the pile could precipitate the collapse.

I believe the chaos, confusion, conflict, and collapse of confidence portends a prolonged period of discord as this Fourth Turning accelerates towards its denouement. The numerous neocon forces in the EU and US attempting to prolong and broaden the Ukraine conflict, along with the Zionist efforts to provoke a war with Iran, have pushed the world to the brink of a new global conflict. All previous Fourth Turnings were decided by an all-out bloody war, and this one is likely to experience a similarly tragic outcome. The billionaire oligarchs who have purposely created havoc and turmoil as a means to increase their wealth, power, and control over the politicians they have put into place to implement their new world order agenda.

The proliferation of assassinations and assassination attempts is a sign of increased vitriol towards those considered evil and expendable by their enemies. The assassination of corporate executives, attempts on Trump, and foiled plans against a Supreme Court justice and Musk mark a new violent turn to this Fourth Turning. Will someone try to take out some of these leftist judges who are impeding the will of the people on behalf of their leftist billionaire quislings?

Will the Ukraine and EU attempt to assassinate Putin, as they have done to numerous other Russian politicians? What I do know is there is a powerful faction attempting to initiate a global war as part of their new world order agenda. All it will take is for someone somewhere to do something stupid and then it will turn nasty, with more death and destruction than a reasonable American can possibly conceive after living in their false bubble of safety and security for decades. Once the dominos begin falling, there will be no stopping them.

“With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty.” – Inspector Finch – V for Vendetta

The burning of Tesla showrooms, brainwashed idiots committing acts of vandalism, and the Soros funded fake protests across the country are only infuriating the normies and pushing us closer to civil chaos. Russia rightfully accusing France and the UK of committing acts of war against energy sites within Russia, along with Trump fulminating about Putin not cooperating, while bombing the shit out of Yemen as instructed by Israel, has turned up the heat on the imminent global conflict.

The two Prophet generation lightning rods for the coming conflict, Trump and Putin, with Bill Gates and RFK Jr. as lesser players, will make the decisions and choices which will determine the future course of this world. In the previous two Fourth Turnings, Nomad Generation facilitators of Lincoln and FDR’s strategy, Grant, Sherman, Eisenhower, and Patton, had to unflinchingly send hundreds of thousands of men to their deaths. Trump’s Nomad Generation agent of change – Elon Musk – has concentrated on rooting out fraud, waste, and inefficiencies in the Federal government, provoking violence and revealing the traitorous henchmen within the judiciary and Soros financed NGOs. Putin’s chief Nomad generation right hand man – Dmitry Medvedev – is a bomb thrower who thrives on conflict.

This Crisis period is accelerating and intensifying on a daily basis, as Trump, Putin and Xi, and a myriad of other world leaders provoke, posture, and threaten each other, with all signs pointing towards military conflict. The propaganda media, led by the NYT, are now admitting we have been at war with Russia since 2014. The entire conflict since 2022 has been funded and fought using U.S. technology, weapons, and personnel. Over $200 billion wasted on another lost war. Those of us in the alt-media revealed the truth about this proxy war years ago.

With Zelensky following orders from his EU benefactors, the fledgling peace efforts of Trump and Putin are destined to fail. The ongoing slaughter in the Middle East, along with the intense saber rattling regarding the U.S. attacking Iran on behalf of Israel, and the US declaring China as its largest military threat regarding their eventual takeover of Taiwan, are building towards a major global conflict, which the purposely distracted and dumbed down masses have no clue is approaching. Boomer leaders are unbending, punitive, authoritarian minded, and willing to risk the destruction of the planet in order to achieve what they have been assigned to accomplish by the globalist oligarchs calling the shots. In 1997, Strauss & Howe predicted the dangers we would face as the climax of this Fourth Turning approached.

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Gold and Oil have been surging, with gold hitting new highs every day, up 38% in the last year, indicating all is not well in this world. The United States has been a nation for two and half centuries, only becoming an empire within the last one hundred years. Trump can pontificate about creating a new morning in America, but it is too late, as darkness descends upon the Republic created by strong courageous men, but slowly destroyed by weak cowardly men, moneyed interests, corrupt politicians, traitorous globalist billionaires, and a populace too dumbed down and distracted by technological bread and circuses to care about future generations.

In 1785 the Americans had won the Revolutionary War, but had not yet written the Constitution or elected a president in the final stages of the first American Fourth Turning. Exactly 80 years later in 1865, the American Civil War Fourth Turning reached its bloody conclusion. Exactly 80 years later in 1945, World War 2 was won, after the loss of 65 million lives. We are now exactly 80 years later in 2025, ready to write another dramatic chapter in the annals of history.

After World War 2, America was the conquering hero wearing the golden crown, but failed to heed the warning all previous empires had also ignored – all glory is fleeting. As we approach our rendezvous with destiny, take note, as described in the bible, that history is cyclical and there is a time for everything. 

I think everyone needs to understand we are entering a time of war, a time to hate, a time to kill, and a time to die. I wish it weren’t so, but the cycles of history don’t lie. Good luck and Godspeed.

To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven;
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.

Ecclesiastes 3: 1-8

The first quarter was an incredibly tumultuous period for markets, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest quarterly decline since 2022. 

The main driver of the market volatility according to DB’s Jim Reid, was an aggressive round of tariffs, as President Trump launched measures going well beyond his first term, with reciprocal tariffs still looming on April 2. Otherwise, the release of DeepSeek’s AI model early in the quarter led to growing questions about big tech valuations, and the Magnificent 7 ended the quarter in bear market territory. 

But it wasn’t all bad news, and European equities saw a significant outperformance thanks to a huge fiscal regime shift towards higher defense spending. In fact, Q1 marked the biggest quarterly performance gap between the STOXX 600 and the S&P 500 in a decade, and the biggest underperformance of the US vs the rest of the world in 23 years.

Nevertheless, the overall tone was generally risk-off for markets, and as the conversation turned increasingly towards stagflation, gold prices posted their biggest quarterly gain since 1986.

Quarter in Review – The high-level macro overview

Despite the disappointing overall performance, “Queasy Q1” actually got off to a decent start in January. For instance, data over the first couple of weeks pointed to robust growth and demand pressures, including in the US. For instance, the ISM services print was up to 54.0 in December, exceeding expectations, and the prices paid indicator moved up to 64.6, the highest in nearly two years. Then the US jobs report for December showed nonfarm payrolls up by +256k, a nine-month high. And that’s since been revised up to +323k, making it the strongest month since February 2023 on current revisions. Indeed, it also meant there was a sizeable bond selloff in early January, with the 10yr Treasury yield surpassing 4.80% intraday for the first time since late-2023. But that rapid rise in yields reversed course after the US CPI print wasn’t as bad as some feared, raising hopes that the Fed would still cut rates this year.

However, after a strong start in January, markets began to show signs of wobbling towards the end of the month. One of the most important developments was the release of DeepSeek’s new AI model, which raised questions as to the sustainability of big tech valuations in the US. The initial market impact was felt on January 27, with the NASDAQ down -3.07% that day, while Nvidia fell -16.97%. And even though that sharp selloff for the NASDAQ quickly unwound, it raised doubts about the narrative of US tech exceptionalism that had powered the equity market’s advance for the last couple of years. Then in February, Nvidia’s earnings showed the smallest revenue beat in two years, which was underwhelming for investors used to much bigger upside surprises.

Late-January also saw one of the biggest stories of the quarter begin, which was the widespread imposition of tariffs by the United States, after the new Trump administration arrived in office on January 20. Initially, they said that 25% tariffs would be imposed on Canada and Mexico, which led to a risk-off move on February 3, but those were extended by a month at the last-minute, and investors became increasingly relaxed about how things might develop. Indeed, the S&P 500 moved up to an all-time high on February 19, at which point it was up +4.6% in total return terms on a YTD basis.

But as the tariff uncertainty began to mount, markets began to experience much larger risk-off moves. For example, the extension for Canada and Mexico ended, and 25% tariffs were imposed on both on March 4, whilst the additional tariff on China was raised from 10% to 20%. Separately, tariffs on steel and aluminium were imposed at 25% on March 12. And looking forward, investors are still awaiting the reciprocal tariffs, which have been scheduled for April 2.

The tariffs also meant investors became increasingly concerned about higher inflation, which exacerbated existing fears given inflation was still lingering above target across the major economies. For example, the US 1yr inflation swap moved up +72bps in Q1 to 3.25%, its highest level in two years, and the biggest quarterly jump in three years. Moreover, consumers’ inflation expectations also moved higher, and the University of Michigan’s long-term measure moved up to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993. Matters weren’t helped by the latest PCE inflation data, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, where the 3m annualised rate of core PCE was running at +3.6% in February, the highest since March 2024. And at the same time, there were also growing concerns about the US growth outlook, and even mounting speculation about a recession. For instance, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure fell to just 92.9 in March, the weakest since January 2021. And the expectations measure fell to 65.2, the lowest since March 2013.

These fears about stagflation led to a clear risk-off move, which gathered pace towards the end of the quarter. So the S&P 500 was initially up +2.8% in January in total return terms, but in February it was down -1.3%, and then in March it fell -5.6%, marking its worst monthly performance since 2022. And for the quarter as a whole, the index was down -4.3%, marking its worst quarterly performance since Q3 2022, back when the Fed were still hiking by 75bps per meeting to deal with rapid inflation. 

Those losses were particularly concentrated among tech stocks, and the Magnificent 7 ended the quarter down -16.0%, having shed -20.7% since its December peak. The US Dollar itself also struggled, with the dollar index down -3.9% in Q1, whilst the Euro was up +4.5% against the US Dollar to $1.08. 

While all that was going on in the US, Q1 also saw an incredible fiscal shift in Europe as the continent moved towards significantly higher defense spending. That followed the German election on February 23, where the incoming coalition proposed a reform of the constitutional debt brake to permit higher defense spending, alongside a €500bn infrastructure fund. Meanwhile at the EU level, the Commission proposed that member states could significantly increase defense spending without triggering the EU’s deficit rules.

The prospect of a significant fiscal stimulus had an immediate impact among European assets. In fact, the announcement saw the 10yr bund yield post its biggest daily jump since German reunification in 1990, moving up +29.8bps in a single day on March 5. Over the quarter as a whole, the 10yr bund yield rose +37bps to 2.74%, and the German DAX was one of the strongest-performing European indices, up +11.3% in total return terms. Significant outperformers included the STOXX Aerospace and Defense Index, which surged +28.9%, whilst the German firm Rheinmetall was up +114.6%. Another result was a notable steepening in yield curves, with the German 2s10s curve moving up +41bps on the quarter to 69bps. And given the sharp policy divergence, Q1 saw the biggest quarterly performance gap in local currency terms between the STOXX 600 (+5.9%) and the S&P 500 (- 4.3%) in a decade.

Finally from central banks, Q1 saw a continued policy divergence across countries. The Fed kept rates unchanged in Q1, and continued to signal two cuts for 2025 in their March dot plot, just as they’d done in December. However, they did slow the pace of QT, with the runoff in Treasury holdings to slow from $25bn to $5bn from April 1. Over at the ECB, they delivered further 25bp rate cuts in both January and March, taking their deposit rate down to 2.50%. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan delivered another hike in January, taking their policy rate up to 0.5%, and signalling further hikes ahead.

Which assets saw the biggest gains in Q1?

• Gold: With inflation concerns mounting, gold prices surged up to an all-time high of $3,124/oz, and their quarterly increase of +19.0% was the most since 1986. 
• US Treasuries: The risk-off move and mounting speculation of a recession helped to support US Treasuries in Q1, with a total return of +2.9% over the quarter. The 10yr yield itself also moved down -36bps to 4.21%.

Which assets saw the biggest losses in Q1?

• US equities: In Q1, the S&P 500 was down -4.3% in total return terms, marking its worst quarterly performance since Q3 2022. Those losses were particularly clear for the Magnificent 7, which fell -16.0%.
• US Dollar: With investors moving out of US assets, the US Dollar struggled in Q1, and the dollar index itself weakened -3.9%. Conversely, the Euro strengthened +4.5% against the US Dollar to $1.08, marking its biggest quarterly jump since Q4 2022.
• Euro sovereign bonds: The prospect of higher spending led to a selloff among European sovereign bonds, with bunds down -1.8% in total return terms. That included a +37bps rise in the 10yr yield, which ended the quarter at 2.74%.
• Cryptocurrencies: The risk-off move meant it was a weak quarter for cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin fell -12.1% to $82,421.

Here are the best and worst performing assets during the March Massacre…

… and here is Queesy Q1:

Source: Deutsche Bank