Summary:

• Iran Accuses Zelensky of Ordering Deadly Caspian Vessel Attack
• Weekend US Crude via IG Markets Down 5% 
• Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause
• Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

*  *  *

*  *  *

Iran Lashes Out at “Freeloader” Zelensky for Caspian Sea Attack

Iran has accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, which it says resulted in an explosion that killed on sailor and injured another.

As we previously reported of the Saturday maritime incident, Ukraine seems to be openly boasting of this escalation. President Zelensky himself announced soon after on X, “We also have very good results from long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea. In particular, these are vessels that were involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, and a warship.”

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran to severely protest the “hostile and criminal” attack on Saturday, IRNA reported. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has further warned that the “blatant UN Charter violation” which was “done at Israel’s behest” could serve to “drag Europe into its war”. Araghchi also denounced and attacked Zelensky personally, calling him the “freeloader in Kyiv”…

Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel’s behest to drag Europe into its war.

In calls with EU High Rep Kallas and FM Lavrov, made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 26, 2026

The risk of the Russia-Ukraine conflict merging with the US-Iran conflict seems plausible, but still remains low, and yet the Caspian Sea situation shows that it is actually possible. The Iranians have sought alternative trade and shipping routes via the Caspian, and early in Operation Epic Fury Israeli warplanes reportedly targeted and took out Iranian naval vessels there.

This isn’t the first time that FM Araghchi has called out Zelensky. Back in January of this year, for example, he called Zelensky a “confused clown”, and said that the Ukrainian leader had been “rinsing American and European taxpayers to fill the pockets of his corrupt generals.” The two countries have previously clashed over Iran supplying Russia with Shahed suicide drones.

Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause 

The diplomatic track appears to have opened with the Trump administration’s move to pause strikes as a goodwill gesture ahead of the weekend – now in its second day. That created space for Omani officials to meet their Iranian counterparts over the weekend, with Tehran reporting “some progress.” The talks have now produced a reciprocal stand-down, under which Iran would halt retaliatory strikes on US bases as long as the US maintains its pause in airstrikes.

Reuters reports:

Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off ‌his two-week-old bombing campaign.

After 13 nights of intensifying U.S. air strikes on Iran, the Pentagon abruptly suspended the campaign late on Friday, with no U.S. attacks reported on either Saturday or Sunday.

Iran, which had been following each night of U.S. attacks with its own strikes on neighboring countries that host U.S. bases, has also so far held fire for two days.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told Fox News on Sunday that Trump had decided to pause U.S. attacks to allow more time for diplomacy.

“He’s giving talks some space, he’s giving it a little bit of room,” Waltz said, without providing further details.

The senior Iranian source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters: “Iran’s position remains ‘attack for attack’: if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States.”

The source added: “However, Iran is prepared to mount a broad response should the U.S. launch another attack.”

Asked about the pause, a senior official in Trump’s administration said on Saturday that the president “has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy, but he has shown Iran what will happen if they fail to come to the table in a serious way.”

The senior Iranian source said Tehran did not hold much hope that Trump’s decision to pause strikes represented a major shift in the U.S. negotiating position.

“There is more skepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that the pause is tactical rather than genuine. Iran has accumulated enough bitter experience with what it sees as U.S. deception,” the source said.

As a result of both sides trying to find a diplomatic route to ending the intensifying tit-for-tat strikes that sent Brent crude futures north of $100 a barrel last week, Weekend US Crude via IG Markets is down about 5% as of late morning New York time.

Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

The US military paused its air campaign against Iran for a second consecutive night after nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes. US strikes were aimed at degrading Tehran’s one-way attack drone and missile capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran hit US bases in the region.

The pause offers the clearest signal yet that a diplomatic off-ramp may be emerging, with Iranian and Omani officials reporting progress in talks to reopen the critical waterway.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a Telegram post that he met with the Omani deputy foreign minister and held talks on Friday and Saturday about restoring safe transit for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei said the officials exchanged views on principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe maritime navigation through the strait.

“The talks were constructive, and some progress was made,” he added, noting that technical and political consultations remain ongoing. The Omani delegation left Tehran on Saturday evening.

Camera zooms in to reveal LINE of ships all ‘stopped in Strait of Hormuz’ — Fars News pic.twitter.com/F8wDPdBDBT

— RTVisual (@RT_Visual_on_X) July 26, 2026

The talks coincided with the US military’s two-day pause in strikes and came as Brent crude futures surged into triple-digit territory and the national average for regular gasoline jumped above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon mark.

JPMorgan’s head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients last week that Brent prices at this level could increase pressure on Washington to reopen diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia appeared on state television on Sunday and warned the US that any further strikes would widen the conflict.

“I believe that if the Americans once again fall for the Zionists’ deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through air strikes, geographically this will expand further,” Akraminia warned.

Akraminia said the conflict has already expanded to the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the southern Red Sea, referencing the recent Houthi attacks on tankers.

“The scope of our operations now encompasses the entire region, from US bases in Jordan to the countries along the Persian Gulf,” he said.

Earlier, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an incident in the southern Red Sea after a “tanker witnessed a splash from an unknown projectile in proximity to the vessel.” Details are scant at the moment.

Next week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington, DC to meet with President Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

Latest overnight headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:

US-Iran Strike Pause

• The US paused its nearly two-week run of nightly strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night as of Sunday morning.
• According to the Telegraph, Trump paused plans to escalate the war after being warned the US is running low on missiles; the pause also allows time for negotiations with Iran.
• Iran’s army spokesman said Iran has also paused its retaliatory operations in response to the US halt. Still, he warned that if the US carries out ground operations, American vulnerability would increase.
• Netanyahu said he will discuss the Iran situation with Trump.

Diplomacy & Negotiations

• Trump said Friday the US was “locked and loaded” for major new strikes but had not yet decided whether to proceed while talks with Iran were ongoing; he said Iran would “love to make a deal” but it’s not time yet.
• Trump leaned toward diplomacy on Friday, referencing negotiations with Iranian officials six times during a 38-minute Oval Office appearance, while leaving open the possibility of military escalation.
• Iranian and Omani deputy foreign ministers held talks in Tehran on Friday and Saturday on managing safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with some progress reported.
• China urged Iran and the US to return to the ceasefire agreement, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressing deep concern over renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Regional Spillover

• Iran-backed Houthis claimed to have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday; Saudi authorities briefly issued emergency warnings before saying the danger had passed, with no immediate confirmation from the Saudi government or Aramco.
• A UK Navy report on Sunday noted a projectile fell near a tanker in the southern Red Sea; the vessel and crew were reported safe.
• An LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew members was attacked in Iranian territorial waters on Friday; India’s embassy confirmed the crew are safe.

Background & Context

• The US had gradually expanded the scope of its strikes over two weeks, hitting bridges and infrastructure deeper inside Iran, after a brief ceasefire in June collapsed over a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the war’s outcome hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, calling a decisive clash imminent.

Previous US-Iran Wrap

• Trump Pursues Diplomatic Off-Ramp As Omani Delegation Arrives In Tehran: Report

Regional Risks

• War Zones Converging? Zelensky Says Ukraine Hit Ship “Transporting Military Cargo” From Iran

Energy Market

• Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert
• Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens
• RBC Commodities Chief Warns “War Entering Dangerous Phase” As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak
• “It’s Getting Worse”: HSBC Warns Commodities Face Squeeze As Chokepoint Chaos Spreads

Rewiring Gulf Energy Supply Chains

• Seven Pipeline Projects That Could Break Iran’s Grip On Hormuz Chokepoint
• Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz
• Great Rewiring: US Supports Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline To Erode Tehran’s Hormuz Leverage
• Dubai’s New East Coast Port Signals The Beginning Of End For Iran’s Hormuz Leverage

By Brian Martucci of UtilityDive

GE Vernova posted double-digit revenue and order growth in the second quarter, driven once again by continued strong performance in its Power and Electrification business segments. Those segments, respectively, produce and service gas, hydro and nuclear power generation equipment; and commercial electrical equipment such as transformers and switchgears.

GE Vernova’s beleaguered third segment, Wind, saw orders fall sharply amid persistent softness in U.S. demand for onshore wind turbines and blades.

“We remain focused on what we can control,” CEO Scott Strazik said on a Wednesday morning earnings call, alluding to the economic, regulatory and legal challenges facing its wind business.

By the numbers — GE Vernova Q2 2026

• $176B: Order backlog across all three major business lines, up from $129 billion in Q2 2025
• 116 GW: Gas turbine order backlog, up from 100 GW in Q1 2026
• $41B: Order backlog in Electrification segment, up 69% year over year
• 40%: Year-over-year decline in wind equipment orders

Strazik said GE Vernova expects its combined backlog of gas turbine orders and slot reservations to reach 125 GW by the end of the year. The company shipped 3 GW of turbines and signed 20 GW of orders and slot reservations, more than half of which are for the hulking HA-class turbines that customers typically run at higher capacity factors, he said.

Strazik said those customers are increasingly diverse, spanning about 100 entities in 26 countries. About 80% are “traditional” customers like utilities and 20% are data center customers, he said. 

Like Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, its main competitors in heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing, GE Vernova continues to book reservations four to five years out. 

GE Vernova is taking reservations for 2031 deliveries now and is on track to “be more than halfway contracted [for 2031] by the end of the year,” Strazik said. But despite “healthy discussions” with customers about potential 2032 bookings, “I would say we need more time before we can articulate the timing of contracting in ’32,” he added. 

Strazik alluded multiple times on the call to “strong” pricing for GE Vernova’s gas power equipment. Though he did not give specific figures for turbines sold in the second quarter, an analysis shared in a Wednesday note by Moses Sutton, senior analyst with BNP Paribas Equity Research, estimated about $790/kW for heavy-duty turbines, $950/kW for HA-class combined-cycle turbines and $1,800/kW for aeroderivative turbines.

Most investors would read Strazik’s 125-GW year-end backlog guidance as conservative “given management’s track record of under-guiding and over-delivering,” Sutton said. In December, Strazik said GE Vernova expected to end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog; the actual figure was 83 GW.

For 2026, the market is likely looking for an actual year-end backlog of 130 GW to 140 GW, Sutton said.

As for GE Vernova’s plan to expand annual turbine manufacturing capacity to 30 GW by 2030, up from 20 GW today, Sutton said “the jury’s out.” Strazik’s suggestion that the company needs more time to firm up its 2032 pipeline may be a sign of “peak momentum emerging” in the company’s gas growth story, he said.

‘Early stages of a multi-decade growth opportunity’

Continuing a trend from recent GE Vernova earnings calls, Strazik sounded enthusiastic about the Electrification segment’s prospects amid what he called “this electricity investment supercycle.”

“The long-cycle electric power industry is in the early stages of a multi-decade growth opportunity and we are well positioned to create substantial value,” Strazik said.

Company figures show its overall Electrification backlog has broken above $40 billion, helped along by the completion of its acquisition of the remaining stake in GE Prolec, formerly a joint venture with Xignux, a Mexican industrial conglomerate. The merger was a factor in the company’s booking of around $800 million in U.S. transformer orders this quarter, Strazik said.

Broad-based load growth, utilities’ and data center customers’ increasing awareness of the need for grid-stabilizing equipment, and national security imperatives are all driving demand for GE Vernova’s electrical systems and components, Strazik said.

In a Wednesday investor note on GE Vernova, Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an equities analyst with investment bank Jefferies, said the company’s ongoing development of solid-state transformers and uninterruptible medium-voltage transformers set it up to benefit from anticipated data center demand for those cutting-edge electrical components.

But in a separate Wednesday note covering a range of companies in the power and electricity sector, Dumoulin-Smith cited community opposition and labor shortages as key dampeners of data center-related load growth that “place the integrity of the power supercycle into question.” Jefferies’s base case remains that data center energization accelerates in the coming years, “but not without hiccups,” he said.

Possible green shoots for wind despite ongoing industry troubles

Though the U.S. wind power industry remains under pressure from the Trump administration’s trade and energy policy, Strazik said the administration’s forthcoming guidance on Section 232 tariffs could provide more “order clarity” in the second half of 2026. At the moment, tariff-related uncertainty is impacting onshore wind development, Strazik said.

Independent energy analysts are cautiously optimistic that the sector will rebound in the years ahead. Wood Mackenzie boosted its five-year outlook for U.S. greenfield wind development by 5% this month as developers raced to capitalize on expiring federal tax credits and contracted corporate demand for clean energy surged.

“Large technology companies are turning to wind power as an additional energy source to meet their growing needs,” Wood Mackenzie said in a July 20 note.

Wood Mackenzie and Strazik both said a coming repowering cycle — owners of aging wind farms replacing older turbines with more powerful units — would support demand for wind power equipment well into the 2030s.

“In our install base in the U.S., there are approximately 10 gigawatts of units with repowering potential — projects that have already qualified for the new production tax credits,” Strazik said.

Strazik did not directly mention an ongoing legal dispute between his company and one of its wind customers, the 800-MW Vineyard Wind project off the Massachusetts coast. 

GE Renewables, a GE Vernova subsidiary, threatened to walk away from the nearly-complete project after Vineyard Wind withheld hundreds of millions of dollars in payments to offset what it called “catastrophic injury” stemming from a 2024 blade break. Vineyard Wind sued GE Vernova in April to block it from exiting its supply agreement.

In a regulatory filing this week, GE Vernova said it had “successfully completed the installation of all remaining wind turbines at the Vineyard Wind project” and has moved into the commissioning phase. 

“As we work through the final stages of the project, we are working with our customer to resolve outstanding claims and counterclaims,” the filing said.

Update (1400ET): The machete-wielding Islamic extremist who drove into a crowd at Berlin’s Pride festival has been shot dead by police.

Abdul Ballout, 21, crashed into partygoers near the Christopher Street Day Parade on Saturday night, killing one person and wounding 29 others.

As The Telegraph reports, the German citizen, who had Lebanese roots and a previous conviction for terror offences, was the subject of a manhunt for more than 20 hours until officers tracked him down to a garden shed in Berlin-Spandau.

Special forces surrounded the plot and carried out an operation on Sunday evening.

Ballout was shot dead after advancing towards officers with a bladed weapon, Berlin police said.

Iris Spranger, Berlin’s interior senator, thanked police, saying:

“I am grateful to the security authorities for finding the attacker so quickly. That is a tremendous achievement.”

More than 2,000 police officers were involved in the manhunt, which was expanded on Sunday to include long-distance trains connecting Berlin to other major cities.

Welt newspaper reported that Ballout had convictions for grievous bodily harm and violent coercion, but more recently appeared to have been radicalised as an Islamist extremist.

He was arrested in Lebanon for trying to join Islamic State in Syria and planning a terror attack.

Florian Nath, a Berlin police spokesman, said the suspect was “known to us as a member of Islamic circles here in Berlin”.

*  *  *

A manhunt is underway in Berlin for a 21-year-old Islamic State supporter accused of driving a vehicle into a pride celebration, killing one person and injuring at least 16 others. The German government called it a “heinous act” of violence. Given the suspect’s jihadist ties, why not call it what it appears to be: terrorism?

“The chief suspect in a deadly attack near Berlin’s pride parade on Saturday night is a supporter of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and was previously convicted of related offenses, German media reported Sunday,” AFP News reported on Sunday morning.

The outlet added, “The 21-year-old man named by police as Abdul B. last year traveled to the Middle East in a failed attempt to join IS, according the Bild and Spiegel newspapers. He was then convicted in Germany of “preparing a serious act of subversive violence,” the papers report.”

🇩🇪 The chief suspect in a deadly attack near Berlin’s Pride parade on Saturday night is a supporter of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and was previously convicted for related offences, German media reported Sunday.

The 21-year-old man named by police as Abdul B. last… pic.twitter.com/VhSvzBZWo4

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 26, 2026

The attack occurred late Saturday night when Abdul drove his van into a group of pedestrians at the pride festival in Tiergarten, shortly before 10 p.m.

🚨 ANOTHER DEADLY ISLAMIST ATTACK IN GERMANY.

German authorities say they are searching for a suspect identified as an Islamist following a deadly attack near a Pride event in Berlin.

Europe has been warned repeatedly about the security consequences of failing to tackle…

— Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) July 26, 2026

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, Germany’s top federal security official, said they “will push with particular urgency for the resolution and punishment of this heinous act.”

Yet their statement stopped short of describing the attack as terrorism…

British political activist commented on the attack:

There is currently a manhunt in Berlin for ‘known’ Islamist Abdul B for predominantly peacefully driving straight through a pride parade while advocating for the religion of peace.

When you allow ‘known’ Islamist scumbags into your country what do you think will happen?

There is currently a manhunt in Berlin for ‘known’ Islamist Abdul B for predominantly peacefully driving straight through a pride parade while advocating for the religion of peace.

When you allow ‘known’ Islamist scumbags into your country what do you think will happen? pic.twitter.com/QMwqmTpmfv

— Tommy Robinson 🇬🇧 (@TRobinsonNewEra) July 26, 2026

The attack will certainly intensify scrutiny of Europe’s backfiring mass-migration policies and Germany’s failure to adequately confront Islamist radicalization. Progressive policymakers in Berlin have increasingly focused on the AfD and right-wing extremism, but the latest violence is another reminder that jihadist networks remain among the country’s most serious national security threats.

Interesting given that it seems that these events in Germany are often about how bad the @AfD is supposed to be. Most Muslims in Germany (like France and the UK) favor left-wing parties. https://t.co/KSXVhCOjW3

— Alberto Miguel Fernandez (@AlbertoMiguelF5) July 26, 2026

The attack will likely bolster more support for Alternative for Germany, which has positioned itself as the common-sense opposition to the left-wing political establishment. Its growing momentum suggests German voters are increasingly frustrated with nutty lefty globalist policies that have pushed Europe closer and closer to the brink of failure.

A suspected US-made LUCAS one-way attack drone was reportedly recovered by fishermen after it was found drifting in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. The discovery comes as US forces have expanded their use of the Iranian-style drone during the multi-month conflict, even publicizing a recent swarm attack involving explosive-laden unmanned boats against Iranian targets.

🔴غير عادي
عثر صيادون إيرانيون على طائرة مسيّرة أمريكية من طراز لوكاس (LUCAS) في مياه الخليج، بعد العثور عليها طافية، وقد سحبوها وسلموها للسلطات وقالوا إنها في حالة سليمة.

لم يعرف بعد سبب سقوطها! pic.twitter.com/ZcxA7mZ7YJ

— الصين بالعربية (@mog_china) July 17, 2026

LUCAS stands for Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System. The first indication that the drones had been deployed came just days into Operation Epic Fury. On March 3, US Central Command announced on X that, “for the first time in history,” the US military had deployed “one-way attack drones” in combat.

CENTCOM’s Task Force Scorpion Strike – for the first time in history – is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran’s Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/VYdjiECKDT

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) February 28, 2026

LUCAS Drone

The drones have been so successful for the US that the Department of War’s fiscal year 2027 procurement request for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) has surged 243-fold to $54.6 billion; a clear acknowledgment that ongoing conflicts across Eurasia have produced one important lesson: cheap kamikaze drones are reshaping the modern battlefield.

Earlier this month, CENTCOM boasted on X about a swarm of Saronic Corsair one-way attack sea drones that struck Iran’s Bandar Abbas Naval Base. The attack appeared to take a page directly from Ukraine’s maritime warfare playbook against Russia.

Yesterday, using multiple one-way attack surface drones, CENTCOM forces successfully struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran. Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking the first time American forces have employed sea… pic.twitter.com/bOM2kmgRxz

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 13, 2026

The world is witnessing the opening phase of robotics and autonomous warfare on the modern battlefield. One-way attack drones and unmanned vessels are precursors to what comes next: humanoid combat robots potentially entering battlefield testing in Ukraine later this year (read here).

Summary:

• Weekend US Crude via IG Markets Down 5% 
• Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause
• Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

Iran Will Halt Tit-For-Tat Strikes If US Maintains Pause 

The diplomatic track appears to have opened with the Trump administration’s move to pause strikes as a goodwill gesture ahead of the weekend – now in its second day. That created space for Omani officials to meet their Iranian counterparts over the weekend, with Tehran reporting “some progress.” The talks have now produced a reciprocal stand-down, under which Iran would halt retaliatory strikes on US bases as long as the US maintains its pause in airstrikes.

Reuters reports:

Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off ‌his two-week-old bombing campaign.

After 13 nights of intensifying U.S. air strikes on Iran, the Pentagon abruptly suspended the campaign late on Friday, with no U.S. attacks reported on either Saturday or Sunday.

Iran, which had been following each night of U.S. attacks with its own strikes on neighboring countries that host U.S. bases, has also so far held fire for two days.

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told Fox News on Sunday that Trump had decided to pause U.S. attacks to allow more time for diplomacy.

“He’s giving talks some space, he’s giving it a little bit of room,” Waltz said, without providing further details.

The senior Iranian source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters: “Iran’s position remains ‘attack for attack’: if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States.”

The source added: “However, Iran is prepared to mount a broad response should the U.S. launch another attack.”

Asked about the pause, a senior official in Trump’s administration said on Saturday that the president “has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy, but he has shown Iran what will happen if they fail to come to the table in a serious way.”

The senior Iranian source said Tehran did not hold much hope that Trump’s decision to pause strikes represented a major shift in the U.S. negotiating position.

“There is more skepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that the pause is tactical rather than genuine. Iran has accumulated enough bitter experience with what it sees as U.S. deception,” the source said.

As a result of both sides trying to find a diplomatic route to ending the intensifying tit-for-tat strikes that sent Brent crude futures north of $100 a barrel last week, Weekend US Crude via IG Markets is down about 5% as of late morning New York time.

Iran, Oman Hold Hormuz Talks As US Pauses Airstrikes For Second Day

The US military paused its air campaign against Iran for a second consecutive night after nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes. US strikes were aimed at degrading Tehran’s one-way attack drone and missile capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran hit US bases in the region.

The pause offers the clearest signal yet that a diplomatic off-ramp may be emerging, with Iranian and Omani officials reporting progress in talks to reopen the critical waterway.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a Telegram post that he met with the Omani deputy foreign minister and held talks on Friday and Saturday about restoring safe transit for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei said the officials exchanged views on principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe maritime navigation through the strait.

“The talks were constructive, and some progress was made,” he added, noting that technical and political consultations remain ongoing. The Omani delegation left Tehran on Saturday evening.

Camera zooms in to reveal LINE of ships all ‘stopped in Strait of Hormuz’ — Fars News pic.twitter.com/F8wDPdBDBT

— RTVisual (@RT_Visual_on_X) July 26, 2026

The talks coincided with the US military’s two-day pause in strikes and came as Brent crude futures surged into triple-digit territory and the national average for regular gasoline jumped above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon mark.

JPMorgan’s head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients last week that Brent prices at this level could increase pressure on Washington to reopen diplomatic channels.

Meanwhile, Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia appeared on state television on Sunday and warned the US that any further strikes would widen the conflict.

“I believe that if the Americans once again fall for the Zionists’ deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through air strikes, geographically this will expand further,” Akraminia warned.

Akraminia said the conflict has already expanded to the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the southern Red Sea, referencing the recent Houthi attacks on tankers.

“The scope of our operations now encompasses the entire region, from US bases in Jordan to the countries along the Persian Gulf,” he said.

Earlier, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an incident in the southern Red Sea after a “tanker witnessed a splash from an unknown projectile in proximity to the vessel.” Details are scant at the moment.

Next week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington, DC to meet with President Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

Latest overnight headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:

US-Iran Strike Pause

• The US paused its nearly two-week run of nightly strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night as of Sunday morning.
• According to the Telegraph, Trump paused plans to escalate the war after being warned the US is running low on missiles; the pause also allows time for negotiations with Iran.
• Iran’s army spokesman said Iran has also paused its retaliatory operations in response to the US halt. Still, he warned that if the US carries out ground operations, American vulnerability would increase.
• Netanyahu said he will discuss the Iran situation with Trump.

Diplomacy & Negotiations

• Trump said Friday the US was “locked and loaded” for major new strikes but had not yet decided whether to proceed while talks with Iran were ongoing; he said Iran would “love to make a deal” but it’s not time yet.
• Trump leaned toward diplomacy on Friday, referencing negotiations with Iranian officials six times during a 38-minute Oval Office appearance, while leaving open the possibility of military escalation.
• Iranian and Omani deputy foreign ministers held talks in Tehran on Friday and Saturday on managing safe maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with some progress reported.
• China urged Iran and the US to return to the ceasefire agreement, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressing deep concern over renewed escalation in the Middle East.

Regional Spillover

• Iran-backed Houthis claimed to have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday; Saudi authorities briefly issued emergency warnings before saying the danger had passed, with no immediate confirmation from the Saudi government or Aramco.
• A UK Navy report on Sunday noted a projectile fell near a tanker in the southern Red Sea; the vessel and crew were reported safe.
• An LPG tanker with 28 Indian crew members was attacked in Iranian territorial waters on Friday; India’s embassy confirmed the crew are safe.

Background & Context

• The US had gradually expanded the scope of its strikes over two weeks, hitting bridges and infrastructure deeper inside Iran, after a brief ceasefire in June collapsed over a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the war’s outcome hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, calling a decisive clash imminent.

Previous US-Iran Wrap

• Trump Pursues Diplomatic Off-Ramp As Omani Delegation Arrives In Tehran: Report

Regional Risks

• War Zones Converging? Zelensky Says Ukraine Hit Ship “Transporting Military Cargo” From Iran

Energy Market

• Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert
• Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens
• RBC Commodities Chief Warns “War Entering Dangerous Phase” As Chokepoint Chaos Risks Oil Above 2008 Peak
• “It’s Getting Worse”: HSBC Warns Commodities Face Squeeze As Chokepoint Chaos Spreads

Rewiring Gulf Energy Supply Chains

• Seven Pipeline Projects That Could Break Iran’s Grip On Hormuz Chokepoint
• Gulf States Considering Network Of New Pipelines To Bypass Strait Of Hormuz
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A manhunt is underway in Berlin for a 21-year-old Islamic State supporter accused of driving a vehicle into a pride celebration, killing one person and injuring at least 16 others. The German government called it a “heinous act” of violence. Given the suspect’s jihadist ties, why not call it what it appears to be: terrorism?

“The chief suspect in a deadly attack near Berlin’s pride parade on Saturday night is a supporter of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and was previously convicted of related offenses, German media reported Sunday,” AFP News reported on Sunday morning.

The outlet added, “The 21-year-old man named by police as Abdul B. last year traveled to the Middle East in a failed attempt to join IS, according the Bild and Spiegel newspapers. He was then convicted in Germany of “preparing a serious act of subversive violence,” the papers report.”

🇩🇪 The chief suspect in a deadly attack near Berlin’s Pride parade on Saturday night is a supporter of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group and was previously convicted for related offences, German media reported Sunday.

The 21-year-old man named by police as Abdul B. last… pic.twitter.com/VhSvzBZWo4

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 26, 2026

The attack occurred late Saturday night when Abdul drove his van into a group of pedestrians at the pride festival in Tiergarten, shortly before 10 p.m.

🚨 ANOTHER DEADLY ISLAMIST ATTACK IN GERMANY.

German authorities say they are searching for a suspect identified as an Islamist following a deadly attack near a Pride event in Berlin.

Europe has been warned repeatedly about the security consequences of failing to tackle…

— Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) July 26, 2026

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, Germany’s top federal security official, said they “will push with particular urgency for the resolution and punishment of this heinous act.”

Yet their statement stopped short of describing the attack as terrorism…

British political activist commented on the attack:

There is currently a manhunt in Berlin for ‘known’ Islamist Abdul B for predominantly peacefully driving straight through a pride parade while advocating for the religion of peace.

When you allow ‘known’ Islamist scumbags into your country what do you think will happen?

There is currently a manhunt in Berlin for ‘known’ Islamist Abdul B for predominantly peacefully driving straight through a pride parade while advocating for the religion of peace.

When you allow ‘known’ Islamist scumbags into your country what do you think will happen? pic.twitter.com/QMwqmTpmfv

— Tommy Robinson 🇬🇧 (@TRobinsonNewEra) July 26, 2026

The attack will certainly intensify scrutiny of Europe’s backfiring mass-migration policies and Germany’s failure to adequately confront Islamist radicalization. Progressive policymakers in Berlin have increasingly focused on the AfD and right-wing extremism, but the latest violence is another reminder that jihadist networks remain among the country’s most serious national security threats.

Interesting given that it seems that these events in Germany are often about how bad the @AfD is supposed to be. Most Muslims in Germany (like France and the UK) favor left-wing parties. https://t.co/KSXVhCOjW3

— Alberto Miguel Fernandez (@AlbertoMiguelF5) July 26, 2026

The attack will likely bolster more support for Alternative for Germany, which has positioned itself as the common-sense opposition to the left-wing political establishment. Its growing momentum suggests German voters are increasingly frustrated with nutty lefty globalist policies that have pushed Europe closer and closer to the brink of failure.