Summary: 

• Oil rises as Treasury revokes June 21 Iran oil waiver
• Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 
• Three maritime incidents reported on Hormuz in last 24 hours 
• Another unidentified vessel hit by a Drone
• IRGC forces hit a Saudi Tanker 
• IRGC forces hit a Qatari LNG tanker

*  *  *

Treasury Revokes Iran Oil Waiver 

Per breaking BBG: “US official says negotiators continue to work in good faith towards a final and Iran’s actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the US and will be met with consequences.” An initial salvo perhaps, preparing for more direct action to come…

US Treasuries extended losses as oil prices climbed to session highs after the Treasury Department revoked the June 21 waiver related to Iranian oil. However, while rescinding the exemption, Treasury said it will allow certain Iranian oil-related transactions during a limited wind-down period to facilitate an orderly transition.

• US OFFICIAL, TO AXIOS ON REVOKED WAIVER, CITES IRANIAN ATTACKS
• IRAN’S ACTIONS TO BE MET W/ CONSEQUENCES: US OFFICIAL TO AXIOS

But ultimately, this means Washington has switched back to in effect giving the US Navy carte blanche to seize Iranian tankers, also as the Gulf region awaits likely American retaliation for the earlier Tuesday Iranian attacks (see below) on several international vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

As a reminder, exactly a week a go we wrote the following…

Iran was euphoric when as part of the Trump MOU, it got permission to flood the world with its oil after Trump effectively eliminate sanctions that had been in place for multiple decades. However, it has quickly run into another, potentially far bigger problem: as the armada of Iranian oil tankers exits the Persian Gulf, it is now struggling to find buyers before the expiry of a 60-day window granted by Washington.

Hormuz Threat Level Raised To “Severe” 

Qatari LNG Tanker Hit By Iranian Missile In Hormuz Chokepoint

A fully loaded Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns that disruptions across the key energy maritime chokepoint could persist longer than traders had expected. Brent crude rose more than 1% to $72.76 a barrel as traders reassessed the war-risk premium in the Gulf area.

The Al Rekayyat, owned by Qatar’s state shipping company Nakilat, was struck early Tuesday about 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, according to Bloomberg, which cited people familiar with the matter and an alert from EOS Risk Group.

EOS said the maritime incident involved either an Iranian suicide drone or a missile strike that resulted in a fire on the Al Rekayyat. No casualties were reported.

Al Rekayyat was fully loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal, making it the first Qatari LNG carrier targeted since the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The tanker appeared to be transiting part of the Hormuz chokepoint with its transponder off, indicating it was not on an Iranian-approved shipping route.

Following the attack, another Qatari-loaded LNG carrier, Al Areesh, made an abrupt U-turn before entering the strait and began circling, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed. Other tankers continued to sail through the highly contested chokepoint, including oil tankers and LPG carriers, using both Iran-approved and US-managed routes.

Later today, President Trump heads to a NATO summit in Ankara, where the Iran conflict is expected to be the center of discussion among world leaders.

US-Iran talks remain suspended while Tehran holds funeral ceremonies for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Qatar has said negotiations will resume after the ceremonies.

UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst commented on market reaction:

Energy {UBXEENER} is among the best sectors on Tuesday after an LNG tanker was hit at Hormuz, rekindling fears around longer term disruption. Progress to normalise flows through strait appears to be stalling slightly with crossings still well below pre-conflict levels.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati noted:

Oil prices may remain under pressure in the near term as additional barrels from previously stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz reach the market. UBS Wealth Management CIO however believes the current price level overestimates how quickly traffic through the waterway will normalize as it takes time for shipping confidence to be fully restored and for tankers to return to the Persian Gulf to load oil for export. The Strait is now accommodating fewer ships than before the conflict began, and the recovery of shut-in production is likely to be slower than expected, CIO says, adding that broad commodity exposure continues to offer diversification benefits in a portfolio.

Vessel flows on the Hormuz chokepoint (transponders on) remain elevated but well below pre-war levels. This may only suggest the normalization process will take longer than expected.

Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said:

The continued use of different shipping lanes suggests that traffic through the strait remains operational, but is fragmented as shipowners adopt different routing strategies based on their individual risk assessments.

Latest Iran and Hormuz headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Strait of Hormuz Attacks

• Iran reportedly fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, with both vessels suffering significant damage but no casualties

• A Qatari LNG carrier, Al Rekayyat, was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast on Tuesday morning as it exited the Strait of Hormuz

• Another loaded LNG tanker, Al Areesh, appears to have U-turned in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday following the strikes

• The attacks are testing a late-June US-Iran deal intended to halt attacks in the waterway as the two sides work toward a peace agreement

Diplomatic Developments

• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Tuesday that negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue, referencing a memorandum of understanding with the US

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Iraq on Tuesday to attend funeral processions for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled for Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala

Market Impact

• European natural gas prices surged as much as 6% on Tuesday, the most in a month, following the attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz

• Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with Brent trading near $73 a barrel, as the attacks highlighted continued risks to vessels in the critical waterway

• Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday, dropping as much as 1.2% to below $4,120 an ounce, as the Hormuz attacks rekindled inflation concerns

• France lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%, citing the Middle East conflict as a factor holding back output

Oil Trade Developments

• India’s state-run refiners are in talks with traders marketing Iranian crude and preparing to buy barrels if the US extends waivers beyond August or eases restrictions

• Two supertankers hauling Saudi crude are heading to the US for the first time since February, following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

• Russia’s Urals crude price averaged $41.66 a barrel at western ports in early July, falling to pre-Iran war levels and less than half the level during the height of oil market turmoil in April

Inflation as measured by the CPI may have peaked, but Americans’ expectations for inflation over the near and medium term rose notably in June according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday, with strong increases anticipated for medical care costs and rent,

Consumers now see inflation at 3.7% over the next year, up from 3.5% in May, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for inflation in three years increased to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, up from 3.1%, while estimates for inflation in five years remained steady at 3%. 

After months of facing higher energy costs, consumers said they see gas prices rising at the lowest rate since mid-2022. Their outlook for food prices also improved slightly in June, though households expect higher bills for medical care and rent. As shown below, median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 0.5% point for the cost of medical care to 9.4%, and by 0.9 percentage point for rent to 8.3%. Median year-ahead price change expectations decreased by 0.8 percentage point for food to 5.0%, by 2.3 percentage points for the cost of college education to 5.7%, and by 3.5 percentage points for gas to 1.5%. The June reading for gas is the lowest since August 2022.

Energy prices have declined in recent weeks, following an interim peace deal between the US and Iran. Earlier on Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said he now sees a positive near-term outlook for inflation, which rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier.  

Despite the jump in near-term inflation expectations, sentiment improved when it comes to jobs: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 1.0% to 14.1%, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.2% to 44.9%.

The data also pointed to an improvement in consumers’ finances. The share of households saying their financial situation was better than last year increased in June, a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share reporting a better financial situation, and expectations for future finances also improved.

…. however, expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of respondents expecting that it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead.

The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 2.9 percentage points to 40.9%, the highest level of the series since April 2021.

Some more details from the report:

Labor Market

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8% in June. This is the highest reading since March 2025.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7%, remaining above the 12-month trailing average of 41.3%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.1%, falling below the 12-month trailing average of 14.5%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months (or the expected quit rate), declined by 3.5 percentage points to 17.3%, falling below the 12-month trailing average of 18.6%.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.2 percentage points to 44.9%, though it remains below the 12-month trailing average of 46.3%. The increase was driven by respondents with household incomes under $50,000.

Household Finance

• The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% in June. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
• Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 5.0%.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with the net share of households reporting it is harder to get credit decreasing. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated slightly, with a larger share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit and a smaller share expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 10.8%, the lowest reading since April 2023. The decline was broad-based across age and education groups.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level remained unchanged at 3.1%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 9.5%, remaining above the 12-month trailing average of 8.7%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 2.0 percentage points to 26.6%.
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situation also improved, with a smaller share of households expecting a worse financial situation and a larger share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

The report comes as some investors see the Fed raising rates later this year to address elevated inflation, although others such as Morgan Stanley are pretty steadfast the Fed will not hike. Fed officials have kept interest rates steady in 2026, though economic projections released last month showed nine officials see the need for at least one rate increase by year end.

The Democratic Socialists of America are quickly gaining power within the Democratic Party, winning a string of high-profile House primary races in recent weeks.

After wins in New York and Colorado, DSA organizers are shifting resources toward Michigan and Wisconsin, where Abdul El-Sayed is running in a highly contested Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and DSA-backed Francesca Hong is seeking the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor.

🚨 Francesca Hong, leading Democratic Socialist in the Wisconsin governor’s race:

“Police exist to uphold white supremacy.” pic.twitter.com/B7cscyzGFI

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) July 6, 2026

Politico noted that DSA is planning to deploy prominent socialists, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, and far-left streamer Hasan Piker, to help energize supporters ahead of the August primaries.

Democrats are now facing a massive internal power struggle after years of allowing socialists and Marxists into their DEI kingdom.

The far-left is hijacking the party and transforming it into something nearly unrecognizable from the old Democratic Party.

The rhetoric now is mostly openly anti-American, hostile to capitalism, supportive of abolishing jails, pushing racism, disdainful of the Constitution, and increasingly dependent on voter blocs shaped by years of mass-migration policies.

What was once a center-left party built around labor, civil rights, and working-class citizens is now being pulled into a radical left revolutionary movement, apparently influenced by foreign subversion operations that seek the destruction of the U.S., hence the anti-American rhetoric.

These DSA and allied activists are using primary wins, urban power centers, and left-wing NGO infrastructure to push Democrats further left ahead of the next election cycle.

X user Canary Mission has published a video showcasing the new faces of the Democratic Party: DSA members who describe exactly what the intention of the socialist movement is – destroying America from deep within.

Frank, Aaron, Hank and Sam are Communist insurgents, radicalized marxist revolutionaries hiding behind personal ideologies to justfy their 1A expressions of the right to promote the insurrection of the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America pic.twitter.com/XLzzjisOqd

— AnimalFarm1945 (Moshe) (@Farm1945A) July 6, 2026

The wake-up call for the general public was when socialist NYC Mayor Zohan Mamrdani bashed America on George Washington’s desk one day before America’s 250th anniversary.

Zohran Mamdani’s Independence Day speech is just him attacking America the entire time pic.twitter.com/wWak7OjCNw

— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) July 3, 2026

And, of course, Hasan Piker, the unofficial DSA spokesperson, has called for his followers “to kill capitalists. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood.”

Hasan Piker calls on his followers to kill capitalists:

“Yeah kill them! KiII those motherfuckers and murder those motherfuckers in the streets. Let the streets soak in their fucking red capitalist blood, dude.”

Democrats are campaigning with him. pic.twitter.com/YiZxGgRkgc

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 9, 2026

Related:

• Billionaire Governor Pritzker Embraces Socialist Candidates As The Future Of The Democrat Party

If you want to understand why the Democratic Party has become so radical and revolutionary, here are some possible answers:

• Feds Nab Alleged Member Of “Sprawling” Cuban Communist Subversion Network Linked To Hasan Piker’s Havana Trip
• DOJ Grand Jury Probes Neville Roy Singham’s Marxist NGO Empire: Report
• “No Longer Tolerate Radical Marxists”: Rubio Sanctions Revolutionary Cuban Influence Network Tied To U.S. Left-Wing NGOs
• Is There A “Cuba Connection” Behind The Radicalization Of America’s Nonprofit Left

The left-wing has absolutely no guardrails:

• Former Sen. Warren Staffer Attends Ayatollah’s Funeral, Calls Him “Greatest Leader Of Our Lifetime”

And this has culminated into…

• Troubling Pattern Of Left-Wing Revolutionaries Targeting “Capitalists” Raises Alarm Over Youth Radicalization

In response, the Trump administration has been testing the waters with anti-communist messaging. It is likely that this messaging will only grow louder, as citizens on both sides of the political aisle can agree that communism is bad.

Tonight on the ZH homepage, Erik Townsend of Macro Voices will host a special livestream with the founders (CEO and CTO) of nuclear energy company Aalo Atomics: Matt Loszak and Yasir Arafat.

This will be part of an ongoing series diving into the emerging nuclear energy technologies, to feature heads of the cutting edge startups and some technical and philisophical debates about where the industry needs to head in order to solve the world’s energy needs.

The following is from Erik Townsend’s Substack (full post) which gives a look into the significance of the milstone achieved:

Full disclosure: I am an early investor in Aalo Atomics and have a direct financial interest in the company’s success. Nothing here is investment advice. Early-stage private investments are speculative, illiquid, and can go to zero. Do your own diligence.

At the stroke of midnight on July 4th, 2026, the United States of America began its 250th year. Nineteen minutes later, at 12:19 a.m. Mountain Time, a small nuclear reactor sitting on a two-acre plot at the edge of the Idaho National Laboratory reached criticality — the moment a nuclear chain reaction becomes self-sustaining. Aalo Atomics had just made history.

This post explains why that was historic. But it also makes a bolder claim, so let me put it up front where you can argue with it:

The criticality demonstration that just made headlines is the least important thing Aalo will do. The event that will actually change the course of history is scheduled for the second half of 2027 — and almost nobody is paying attention to it yet.

Bottom line up front:

• Four American companies brought first-of-a-kind advanced reactors to criticality in a single month — more genuine reactor firsts than the previous half-century produced. Give them all credit.

• Of the four, I contend Aalo’s was the most commercially important, for two reasons almost no one is discussing: it was the only one built at full commercial scale, and it uses the one fuel form that doesn’t depend on a non-existent supply chain.

• The 2026 criticality was a physics demonstration. The 2027 demonstration — the first Aalo-X reactor actually making electricity that powers something substantial — is the starting gun for what I call the Nuclear Henry Ford Moment.

• Aalo has a SAFE round closing this month and a Series C now being shopped. I expect the Series C valuation — which some will likely complain is too high — is going to look, in hindsight, like the bargain of the century. I’ll show you why using a company you’ve heard of.

Above: “Fission Accomplished”—The crowd in Idaho Falls, ID erupts in cheers and applause as the successful criticality event is announced just after midnight on the morning of July 4th.

More nuclear history was made in one month than in the prior half-century

Here is a fact that should stop you cold. On June 4th, 2026, when Antares Nuclear’s Mark-0 reactor went critical at INL, it became — by the count of INL’s own laboratory director — the first genuinely new reactor design to reach criticality at the lab in more than half a century. It was also, per the DOE, the 53rd reactor ever built at that site since 1951.

Think about what that means. The Idaho desert is where America built the first of a kind (FOAK) reactors that created the first nuclear age — 52 of them in the 22-year period from 1951 to 1973. Then that pace of first-of-a-kind innovation effectively stopped. Not slowed. Stopped. FOAKreactor design introductions at INL went into a 53-year hiatus from 1973 to 2026. Then four new reactor designs went critical in just 31 days, culminating with Aalo’s Critical Test Reactor on the nation’s 250th birthday.

The conclusion is inescapable: The dawn of the second nuclear age is upon us.

What restarted it was a deadline. In May 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14301, “Reforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of Energy,” which directed the DOE to stand up a Reactor Pilot Program and get at least three new test reactors to criticality by July 4th, 2026. When that goal was announced, most of the industry called it a fantasy. The conventional wisdom is that a new reactor takes at least a decade. The order gave them roughly just twelve months.

They didn’t just hit the target. They beat it. Four companies reached criticality:

• Antares Nuclear — the Mark-0, a 500-kilowatt sodium heat-pipe microreactor, critical at INL on June 4th.

• Valar Atomics — the Ward 250, a 100-kilowatt helium-cooled, TRISO-fueled high-temperature gas reactor, critical in Emery County, Utah on June 18th.

• Deployable Energy — the Unity Nuclear Battery, a roughly 1-megawatt shipping-container reactor whose founder famously drove the core to Idaho in the bed of a Ford F-150, critical on June 30th.

• Aalo Atomics — the Critical Test Reactor went critical at INL in the wee hours of July 4th, the very deadline itself.

The DOE was entitled to its victory lap: for the first time in history, a single country brought four distinct advanced-reactor designs to criticality inside one month’s time. That’s never happened before in world history.

For over fifty years the pace of American reactor innovation was zero. Then, on a presidential dare, four companies did the impossible in four weeks. That is the real headline — and it deserves to be spread far and wide.

So let me be clear before I get selective: every one of these teams did something extraordinary…. but “we made a reactor go critical” and “we’re about to change the economics of civilization” are very different claims, and in my humble opinion, the market is currently failing to distinguish between them.

*********

Tune in tonight at the ZH homepage, X account, and YouTube page at 7pm ET to watch the Aalo energy deep dive live, and see why Erik is betting big on their prospects to change the entire industry.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky is in Ankara for the annual NATO summit, trying to bring the pressure on the alliance to step up more defense backing amid the grinding war with Russia, which has increasingly turned into a ‘battle of the skies’. 

Over 430 Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow and the surrounding region overnight, soon after which Zelensky appeared on the NATO stage Tuesday, urging allies to prioritize the production of anti-ballistic missile systems. Already Britain has said it plans to lead the way in the Western alliance developing and providing long-range missiles for Kiev.

“The one thing we still need to do here in Europe is build a strong defense against Russia’s ballistic missiles,” Zelensky said. “It’s a big challenge; this is Russia’s last major advantage.”

He cast Russia’s own ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine as an issue of global importance. “We already see each other as reliable partners, and it would be only natural to become a part of one common security community,” Zelensky told European leaders, also with President Trump in attendance.

The overnight drone attack on the Moscow region is being described as the largest air raid on the Russian capital in two years, though no significant damage or injuries were reported – as air defenses were busy and apparently successful this time.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said “most” of the inbound UAVs were “neutralized by air defense forces on distant approaches.” Across the whole nation, Russia’s Defense Ministry separately indicated it intercepted 452 Ukrainian drones Monday night into Tuesday morning.

As a result of the heavy attack wave, all four of Moscow’s major airports suspended services or else imposed serious flight restrictions, which has by this point happened many times before.

Zelensky at NATO Summit in Ankara:

We have completely eliminated the very idea of Russia having a strategic rear.

And you know this country — for a long time, Russia believed it had a territorial advantage. No one else possessed a deep rear.

It could safely keep military… pic.twitter.com/NMQrH2WuWS

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 7, 2026

DeepSeek is developing its own artificial intelligence chip, a move that could reduce its reliance on both US-based Nvidia and China-based Huawei.

Leading model developers are increasingly seeking to control more of their compute stacks, particularly for inference, as AI models move from training labs into the mass market.

DeepSeek is the latest company to pursue this strategy by developing a new in-house inference chip, Reuters reports.

If successful, this effort would mark a major shift for the Chinese AI chatbot company and add new pressure on Nvidia’s long-term dominance across the AI compute market. It would also add pressure on Huawei, which has benefited from US export controls that blocked Chinese firms from buying Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips.

US companies such as Meta Platforms, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic are also increasingly turning to in-house chips to reduce AI infrastructure costs.

According to the report, DeepSeek’s effort to design a new inference chip is in the “early stages,” suggesting that developing a competitive AI chip could take a few years.

A new Bloomberg Intelligence survey found that an increasing number of Chinese companies are shifting away from Nvidia’s advanced AI chips.

Chinese executives expect to allocate 46% of their AI accelerator budgets to domestic AI infrastructure over the next 12 months, up from 30% today, according to the survey.

The findings point to growing momentum behind Beijing’s push to replace Nvidia in domestic chip stacks.

“China’s drive to substitute locally made AI semiconductors for foreign ones is making progress, which is likely to benefit domestic markers such as Huawei and Hygon,” said the report, which surveyed dozens of executives at Chinese software, finance, manufacturing and retail companies.

For Nvidia, the risk is not an immediate loss of market share, but a longer-term shift in which Chinese companies and AI chatbot startups increasingly seek in-house or domestically produced chips, suggesting mounting headwinds for Nvidia.

Meanwhile, the token-maxxing fiasco appears to have accelerated a global shift toward low-cost models, a trend that may favor Chinese AI chatbots.

Bloomberg cited OpenRouter data showing that Chinese models are capturing a growing share of developer usage, suggesting that China’s AI firms are becoming more competitive in global model adoption.

Magnificent Seven stocks were mixed Tuesday morning, with Nvidia down about 2%.

Nvidia remains up roughly 5% year-to-date, but the stock is still about 17% below its May peak, as investors reassess the longer-term risk of AI model developers building more of their own compute stacks and China seeking to source domestic AI chips.

Beyond Ukraine’s increasing kamikaze drone attacks on key Russian energy infrastructure, which appear to be fueling a domestic fuel crisis, Kyiv has now widened the pressure campaign of drone swarm attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers.

Reuters cites a statement from Ukraine’s drone forces that said a swarm of loitering munitions struck eight Russian shadow fleet tankers with a deadweight of around 7,000 tons in the Sea of Azov.

The drone swarm attack came a day after Ukraine’s special forces hit two other shadow-fleet tankers in the same area.

Ukraine said it was targeting Russia’s naval supply chain to induce fuel shortages and a broader push to isolate Crimea. The peninsula was annexed by Russia in 2014 and serves as a staging ground for Moscow’s war effort.

“Striking the enemy’s naval logistics complicates the supply of fuel and ammunition necessary ‌to support the activities of Russian troops, primarily in the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea,” the drone forces said.

Ukraine stated that it struck 8 tankers of the Russian shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov.

All the tankers are under international sanctions. pic.twitter.com/ESVpXGdh3k

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 7, 2026

A new Financial Times report, citing data from Rochan Consulting, showed that recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries hit a record monthly high of 16 in May. 

Since the start of this year, refineries have been hit at least 194 times, an 11-fold increase from the same period one year ago.

Russia is now intercepting an average of roughly 600 Ukrainian drones per day, highlighting the scale of Kyiv’s ability to mass-produce low-cost drones.

Ukraine has sharply increased attacks on Russia’s critical energy infrastructure over the past year, with refineries and fuel logistics emerging as core targets.

That pressure campaign expanded again in June, as Kyiv simultaneously ramped up strikes on Russian military production sites.

Moscow, meanwhile, has been escalating its own drone swarm attacks on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure and military targets.

The takeaway here is very clear as both sides are moving deeper into massive drone warfare, and neither appears prepared to de-escalate.

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

The man accused of planting pipe bombs in Washington prior to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, is not covered by President Donald Trump’s blanket pardon for individuals convicted of crimes over their participation in the Capitol breach, a federal judge ruled on Monday.

Suspect Brian Cole Jr. had requested that all his charges, including transporting explosives, malicious attempt to use explosives, attempt to use weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism, be dismissed because Trump’s day-one pardon covered his conduct. The judge denied that request.

“The pardon, by its terms, does not apply to Cole,” Judge Amir Ali, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, said in his Monday decision.

On Trump’s first day back in office, he commuted the sentences of about 1,500 “individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021,” when Congress was certifying the 2020 presidential election.

Cole argued this proclamation applied to him because he was charged with planting two pipe bombs near the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee headquarters on Jan. 5, 2021.

“The pardon applies to Mr. Cole because his alleged conduct is inextricably tethered to the events at or near the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021,” Cole’s lawyers wrote in their March 16 motion for dismissal of his charges.

But the judge disagreed, writing that the wording of the president’s pardon prevented Cole from being granted clemency because he has not been convicted of any crimes.

“Even assuming that the conduct Cole is charged with is ‘related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021,’ the pardon is expressly limited to people who had been ‘convicted of offenses’ related to those events,” Ali said.

Cole and his attorneys failed to explain how Trump’s pardon for those found guilty of crimes on Jan. 6, 2021, applied to him, the judge continued.

Cole’s motion for dismissal mentioned another section of the president’s proclamation that directed the U.S. attorney general to “pursue dismissal with prejudice to the government of all pending indictments,” arguing this required his charges to be dropped as well.

“But this argument does not work either,” Ali said in his decision.

“Cole was first charged in December 2025 – months after the President’s proclamation… He therefore did not have ‘pending indictments’ at the time of the President’s directive.”

The Department of Justice (DOJ) had presented similar points in an April 10 filing in opposition to Cole’s motion for dismissal. At the time of Trump’s proclamation, the suspect belonged to neither category of those convicted of offenses related to Jan. 6, 2021, nor of those with a pending indictment.

“And even if the proclamation somehow could apply to this case, the Department of Justice’s contrary position is entitled to deference as a reasonable interpretation taken by the Executive Branch agency expressly charged with administering the proclamation,” the DOJ said in its filing.

Cole was arrested in early December, nearly five years after bombs were discovered and defused near the Democratic and Republican National Committee buildings. The bombs consisted of a pipe, endcaps, electrical wire, a battery, and other materials.

An affidavit alleged he purchased pipe and kitchen timers in 2019 and 2020 to use to build the devices.

Cellphone records placed Cole around the buildings on Jan. 5, 2021, the affidavit showed, and his Nissan Sentra was spotted in the area that evening.

Cole made his first appearance in court on Dec. 5, 2025. At the time, he only faced charges of transporting and attempting to use an explosive device.

Later in December, federal prosecutors said in a court filing that Cole had confessed during a post-arrest interview to building and planting the bombs.

He told authorities that “something just snapped” in him after “watching everything, just everything getting worse,” the filing said.

Cole’s attorneys had asked for his release, citing his lack of criminal history and diagnosis of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and autism spectrum disorder, Level 1.

One of the character reference letters submitted along with the request by a business associate of Cole’s father described the man’s “peaceful nature.”

“Over the years of my interactions with him, I have never seen him emotionally angry, upset, or even frustrated,” one of the letters read.

A judge denied Cole’s request for release on Jan. 2, saying the evidence pointed to him being too great a danger to the public.

About a week later, Cole pleaded not guilty to the charges of transporting and attempting to use explosives.

The DOJ brought the additional charges in April, which Cole has also pleaded not guilty to. If convicted, he could face decades in prison.

Cole’s attorneys could not be reached for comment at the time of publication.

The saga of the Monaco package bomb attack carried out last week against an exiled Ukrainian oligarch just got even wilder and more mysterious, as the prime suspect has been found shot dead near Kiev.

The Guardian reports that “Ukrainian prosecutors said on Tuesday the woman had been found with a gunshot wound to the head and that two men had been arrested in connection with the case, including an officer with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) and a former law enforcement officer.”

The gunshot victim is reported to be Anastasiia Berezovska, 39-year old Ukrainian national who speaks German – and who has been on the run, and especially since the Friday issuance of a ‘red notice’ by Interpol for her immediate apprehension. There are reports that the would-be assassin had disguised herself as a man while carrying out the parcel bombing.

The victims of the June 29 bombing were Vadym Iermolaiev and his family, which all survived the bombing that took place at the entrance of his luxury Monaco apartment building (however, he and is girlfriend were very seriously injured). The suspected would-be assassin was seen fleeing to the French border, after which a massive police and security search, along with helicopters, ensued across Monaco, France, and even in Italy. Per Euronews:

After the explosion, she is believed to have walked to the nearby French town of Beausoleil, where she retrieved her rental car and drove through Italy to Germany, her last known country of residence, Morgan Raymond, Monaco’s deputy public prosecutor, told reporters.

“The relative sophistication of the explosive device and the modus operandi appear to indicate that the person who planted the device did not act alone,“ the prosecutor said, confirming that the individual was “a woman posing as a man.”

Given that Ukrainian businessman Iermolaiev had long ago been declared an enemy of the Ukrainian state, and has been under sanctions for years for his extensive business dealings in Crimea, Ukrainian intelligence has come under the spotlight for possible involvement in the Monaco bomb attack – a first of its kind in the small, wealthy principality.

Le Figaro reported that the investigation focuses on Zelensky’s secret police (SBU) in the Monaco bomb attack: “According to several concurring sources at Le Figaro, investigators are focusing on the possibility that the attack was orchestrated by the SBU, the Ukrainian intelligence service.”

It certainly looks curious that Berezovska fled strait to the Ukrainian capital. According to more details from The Guardian:

Prosecutors said in a statement that Berezovska received cryptocurrency payments from the two men who were later arrested, leading investigators to treat them as “individuals potentially involved in the attempted murder in Monaco”. They added that the serving HUR officer was “acting on his own initiative” and did not inform his superiors about his contacts with Berezovska.

Prosecutors also released footage showing a blood-stained “torture chamber”, containing hammers and other equipment, which they said was discovered during searches of the men’s properties.

So already the Zelensky government is desperately trying to distance itself from the ordeal, claiming that Ukraine’s own intelligence officer was merely “acting on his own”. More details are as follows:

Ukrainian authorities said they detained two men on suspicion of murdering Berezovska “by prior conspiracy.”

Police said that one of the men – a current employee of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate – confessed to the murder of Berezovska and claimed that the second suspect, who is a former law enforcement officer, was an accomplice.

Prince Albert II of Monaco had condemned the bombing as “an odious act” – and this was widely reported to be the first such terror bombing incident on the small, wealthy principality’s soil in history.

❗️🇺🇦 The suspects in the murder of Anastasia Berezovska are a former law enforcement officer and a current employee of State Security Service.

They are also suspected of involvement in the assassination attempt on Yermolaev.

During a search of the former law enforcement… pic.twitter.com/Jp1qObmR6e

— The Ukrainian Review (@UkrReview) July 7, 2026

While Russia has long been accused of deploying intelligence-linked assassin squads in Europe to hunt down political enemies, there’s lately been increasingly acknowledgement that Ukraine has been engaged in its own ‘dirty war’ of assassination hits, both within and outside of Russia.

There has already been an ideological and propaganda campaign to do something about the group of wealthy Ukrainian businessmen and politicians living in exile in Monaco. Government-aligned and independent Ukrainian media has long labelled this group the “Monaco battalion”.

Marine Le Pen can enter the race to become France’s next president after judges confirmed her embezzlement conviction on appeal but handed her a reprieve on an election ban.

Presiding Judge Michèle Agi confirmed Le Pen’s conviction, saying that she and several others at the National Rally party misused European Union funds earmarked to pay for aides.

But the appellate judges reduced her ban to 15 months, thus paving the way for her to lead her party into the next election.

“The court found that the enforcement of this penalty since March 31, 2025, has already remedied the breach of integrity to an extent compatible with the fundamental guarantees afforded to citizens, and that disregarding this would undermine the principle of freedom of candidacy, an essential condition for the democratic exercise of universal suffrage,” Judge Agi said in court.

Le Pen was initially convicted in March 2025 by first-instance judges, who gave her an election ban lasting five years and a two-year jail term that’s on hold while she appeals.

Her party was quick to react, with Bardella quipping on TV against what he described as the “tyranny of judges.”

Jordan Bardella, whom she has groomed as her chosen successor for years, is ready to take her spot as the lead candidate for the National Rally.

The 30-year-old would offer voters a somewhat different profile to Le Pen who has gained ground among voters in three successive presidential campaigns.

A recent poll suggested that either would lead the French election after a first round vote.

French bond yields are up modestly after the news, but were already higher before the decision…

For now, prediction markets show Le Pen’s odds of victory improving modestly from an admittedly low level, while Bardella, has consolidated his position as favorite to win…

While Le Pen can still lodge a top court challenge, she has promised to announce whether she’ll run or not after this ruling.

Still, the court gave Le Pen a one-year jail sentence that it indicated she would likely serve with an electronic tag, for at least a portion of the term, and she has indicated she would likely withdraw if she was forced to wear the bracelet during the campaign.

The decision now rests with Len Pen as to her future – she is scheduled to speak in a television interview at 8 p.m. local time.